Using simulated annealing for resource allocation

Many resource allocation issues, such as land use- or irrigation planning, require input from extensive spatial databases and involve complex decisionmaking problems. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to make these issues more transparent and to support the design and evaluation of resource allocation alternatives. Recent developments in this field focus on the design of allocation plans that utilise mathematical optimisation techniques. These techniques, often referred to as multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, run into numerical problems when faced with the high dimensionality encountered in spatial applications. In this paper we demonstrate how simulated annealing, a heuristic algorithm, can be used to solve high-dimensional non-linear optimisation problems for multi-site land use allocation (MLUA) problems. The optimisation model both minimises development costs and maximises spatial compactness of the land use. Compactness is achieved by adding a non-linear neighbourhood objective to the objective function. The method is successfully applied to a case study in Galicia, Spain, using an SDSS for supporting the restoration of a former mining area with new land use.     

The influence of demersal trawl fishing gears on the resuspension of dinoflagellate cysts

To investigate the influence of towed demersal fishing gears on dinoflagellate cyst resuspension, towing trials with four gear components were carried out at three sites of differing sediment type in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Samples of sediment plumes were collected using plankton nets mounted on a towed sledge. Diversity of resuspended dinoflagellate cysts was similar at all sites and included Protoperidinium and Gonyaulax spp., Proroceratium reticulatum and unidentified ‘round brown’ cysts. Cyst concentrations per gram of resuspended sediment varied by gear component and sediment particle size distribution. Gear components with lower hydrodynamic drag generated wakes with smaller shear stresses, mobilising fewer larger sand particles, giving larger concentrations of cysts. Muddy sediments contained higher cyst concentrations which declined with increasing grain size. This study has shown that fishing gear and sediment type can influence the redistribution of dinoflagellate cysts and highlights the importance this may have in relation to dinoflagellate blooms.     

Io: Volcanic thermal sources and global heat flow

We have examined thermal emission from 240 active or recently-active volcanic features on Io and quantified the magnitude and distribution of their volcanic heat flow during the Galileo epoch. We use spacecraft data and a geological map of Io to derive an estimate of the maximum possible contribution from small dark areas not detected as thermally active but which nevertheless appear to be sites of recent volcanic activity. We utilize a trend analysis to extrapolate from the smallest detectable volcanic heat sources to these smallest mapped dark areas. Including the additional heat from estimates for “outburst” eruptions and for a multitude of very small (“myriad”) hot spots, we account for ～62 × 10¹² W (～59 ± 7% of Io’s total thermal emission). Loki Patera contributes, on average, 9.6 × 10¹² W (～9.1 ± 1%). All dark paterae contribute 45.3 × 10¹² W (～43 ± 5%). Although dark flow fields cover a much larger area than dark paterae, they contribute only 5.6 × 10¹² W (～5.3 ± 0.6%). Bright paterae contribute ～2.6 × 10¹² W (～2.5 ± 0.3%). Outburst eruption phases and very small hot spots contribute no more than ～4% of Io’s total thermal emission: this is probably a maximum value. About 50% of Io’s volcanic heat flow emanates from only 1.2% of Io’s surface. Of Io’s heat flow, 41 ± 7.0% remains unaccounted for in terms of identified sources. Globally, volcanic heat flow is not uniformly distributed. Power output per unit surface area is slightly biased towards mid-latitudes, although there is a stronger bias toward the northern hemisphere when Loki Patera is included. There is a slight favoring of the northern hemisphere for outbursts where locations were well constrained. Globally, we find peaks in thermal emission at ～315°W and ～105°W (using 30° bins). There is a minimum in thermal emission at around 200°W (almost at the anti-jovian longitude) which is a significant regional difference. These peaks and troughs suggest a shift to the east from predicted global heat flow patterns resulting from tidal heating in an asthenosphere. Global volcanic heat flow is dominated by thermal emission from paterae, especially from Loki Patera (312°W, 12°N). Thermal emission from dark flows maximises between 165°W and 225°W. Finally, it is possible that a multitude of very small hot spots, smaller than the present angular resolution detection limits, and/or cooler, secondary volcanic processes involving sulphurous compounds, may be responsible for at least part of the heat flow that is not associated with known sources. Such activity should be sought out during the next mission to Io.     

Impacts of forest conversion and agriculture practices on water pathways in Southern Brazil

Land‐use/cover change (LUCC), and more specifically deforestation and multidecadal agriculture, is one of the various controlling factors of water fluxes at the hillslope or catchment scale. We investigated the impact of LUCC on water pathways and stream stormflow generation processes in a subtropical region in southern Brazil. We monitored, sampled and analysed stream water, pore water, subsurface water, and rainwater for dissolved silicon concentration (DSi) and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O (δ¹⁸O) signature to identify contributing sources to the streamflow under forest and under agriculture. Both forested and agricultural catchments were highly responsive to rainfall events in terms of discharge and shallow groundwater level. DSi versus δ¹⁸O scatter plots indicated that for both land‐use types, two run‐off components contributed to the stream discharge. The presence of a dense macropore network, combined with the presence of a compact and impeding B‐horizon, led to rapid subsurface flow in the forested catchment. In the agricultural catchment, the rapid response to rainfall was mostly due to surface run‐off. A 2‐component isotopic hydrograph separation indicated a larger contribution of rainfall water to run‐off during rainfall event in the agricultural catchments. We attributed this higher contribution to a decrease in topsoil hydraulic conductivity associated with agricultural practices. The chemical signature of the old water component in the forested catchment was very similar to that of the shallow groundwater and the pore soil water: It is therefore likely that the shallow groundwater was the main source of old water. This is not the case in the agricultural catchments where the old water component had a much higher DSi concentration than the shallow groundwater and the soil pore water. As the agricultural catchments were larger, this may to some extent simply be a scale effect. However, the higher water yields under agriculture and the high DSi concentration observed in the old water under agriculture suggest a significant contribution of deep groundwater to catchment run‐off under agriculture, suggesting that LUCC may have significant effects on weathering rates and patterns.     

Evolution of the East China Sea sedimentary environment in the past 14 kyr: Insights from tetraethers-based proxies

We reconstruct the environmental evolution of the East China Sea in the past 14 kyr based on glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers(GDGTs) in a sediment core from the subaqueous Yangtze River Delta. Two primary phases are recognized. Phase I(13.8–8 cal kyr BP) reflects a predominantly continental influence, showing distinctly higher concentrations of branched GDGTs(averaged 143 ng/g dry sediment weight, dsw) than isoprenoid GDGTs(averaged 36 ng/g dsw), high BIT index(branched vs. isoprenoid tetraethers) values(0.78) and a fluctuating GDGT-0/crenarchaeol ratio(R_(0/5), varied from 0.52 to 3.81). Within this interval, temporal increases of terrestrial and marine influence are attributed to Younger Dryas(YD)(ca. 12.9–12.2 cal kyr BP) cold event and melt-water pulse(MWP)-1B(11.5–11.1 cal kyr BP), respectively. The prominent transition from 8 to 7.9 cal kyr BP shows a sharp decrease in BIT index value(0.4) and increase in crenarchaeol, which marks the beginning of phase II. Afterwards, the proxies remain relatively constant, which indicates that phase II(7.9 cal kyr BP-present) is a shelf sedimentary environment with high stand of sea level. Overall, the BIT index in our record serves as a good marker for terrestrial influence at the site, and likely reflects the flooding history of the region. The TEX_(86)(Tetra Ether Index of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbons) proxy is not applicable in phase I because of an excess terrestrial influence; but it seems to be valid for revealing the annual SST in phase II(21.6±0.9°C, n=49). In contrast, the MBT'/CBT(Methylation of Branched Tetraethers and Cyclization of Branched Tetraethers) proxy appears to faithfully record the annual mean air temperature(MAT)(14.3±0.63°C, n=68) and presents an integrated signal over the middle and lower Yangtze River drainage basin.     

The use of dinoflagellate cysts to separate human-induced from natural variability in the trophic state of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries

To obtain insight into the natural and/or human-induced changes in the trophic state of the distal portion of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries, high temporal resolution dinoflagellate cyst records were established at three sites. Cyst production rates appear to reflect the natural variability in the river's discharge, whereas cyst associations reflect the trophic state of the upper waters, which in turn can be related to agricultural development. The increased abundances of Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Stelladinium stellatum found as early as 1890 and 1920 correspond to the beginning of the industrial revolution in Italy and the first chemical production and dispersion of ammonia throughout Europe. After 1955, the increased abundances of these species and of Polykrikos schwartzii, Brigantedinium spp. and Pentapharsodinium dalei correspond to agriculturally induced alterations of the hypertrophic conditions. A slight improvement in water quality can be observed from 1987 onward.     

A European digital accelerometric database:statistical analysis of engineering parameters of small to moderate magnitude events

During the NERIES Project, an accelerometric database containing European digital information was developed. Besides event and station metadata, ground motion parameters, computed in a homogeneous manner, were assembled:PGA, PGV, AI, TD, CAV, HI and PSV(f,5%)(19,961 components, 2629 events, 547 stations). Merging small and moderate magnitude events produced a unique database capable of providing important information such as:(i) Correlations between several ground motion parameters follow analogous trends as in previous worldwide datasets, with slight corrections.(ii) Although PGA attenuations with distance show great uncertainties, four recent GMPEs recommended for Europe fit quite well the central 50% data interval for the distance range 10 R 200 km; outside these distances, they do not fit.(iii) Soil amplification ratios indicate that weak motion(low magnitudes and larger distances) shows larger amplification than strong motion(short distances and large magnitudes) as represented in UBC97 for the USA, but not in EC8 for Europe.(iv) Average spectral shapes are smaller than in the EC8.(v) Differences in amplification factors for PGA, PGV and HI for EC8 soil classes B and C, and differences in spectral shapes for these soil classes, indicate that EC8, Type 2 S-coefficient should be frequency dependent, as in UBC97.     

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance and composition of ichthyoplankton in a large South Island,New Zealand river estuary

Larval and juvenile fish drifting on ebb tides were collected from early summer to mid autumn at various locations in the Taieri River and Waipori River estuary, South Island, New Zealand. A total of seven species of fish were recorded, however only three species were regularly collected. These were the larval common bully (Gobiomorphus cotidianus McDowall), larval inanga (Galaxias maculatus Jenyns), and postlarval cockabully (Tripterygion nigripenne Valenciennes). Common bully densities were highest in mid January, with the highest densities being recorded drifting out of Lake Waihola. Inanga densities were highest in March and April, with the highest densities being recorded in the channels draining wetland areas where extensive tidal inundation of riparian vegetation occurred. Cockabully were recorded from February to April, mostly at more downstream sites. Inland penetration by marine species was considerable, with two marine species, clingfish (Trachelochismus pinnulatus Forster) and smooth leatherjacket (Parika scaber Forster), being recorded c. 12 km upstream in late summer.     

Validation tests of an improved kernel density estimation method for identifying disease clusters

The spatial filter method, which belongs to the class of kernel density estimation methods, has been used to make morbidity and mortality maps in several recent studies. We propose improvements in the method to include spatially adaptive filters to achieve constant standard error of the relative risk estimates; a staircase weight method for weighting observations to reduce estimation bias; and a parameter selection tool to enhance disease cluster detection performance, measured by sensitivity, specificity, and false discovery rate. We test the performance of the method using Monte Carlo simulations of hypothetical disease clusters over a test area of four counties in Iowa. The simulations include different types of spatial disease patterns and high-resolution population distribution data. Results confirm that the new features of the spatial filter method do substantially improve its performance in realistic situations comparable to those where the method is likely to be used.     

Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia

Glaciers in the southern Himalayas advanced in the early Holocene despite an increase in incoming summer solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere. These glacier advances are in contrast to the smaller alpine glaciers in the western and northern regions of Central Asia. Two different glacier mass-balance models are used to reconcile this Holocene glacier history with climate by quantifying the change in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) for simulated changes in Holocene climate. Both ELA models clearly show that the lowering of ELAs in the southern Himalayas is largely due to a decrease in summer temperatures, and that an increase in monsoonal precipitation accounts for less than 30% of the total ELA changes. The decrease in summer temperatures is a dynamic response to the changes in solar insolation, resulting in both a decrease in incoming shortwave radiation at the surface due to an increase in cloudiness and an increase in evaporative cooling. In the western and northern zones of Central Asia, both ELA models show a rise in ELAs in response to a general increase in summer temperatures. This increase in temperatures in the more northern regions is a direct radiative response to the increase in summer solar insolation.