Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods

There has been much improvement in numerical weather prediction since L.F. Richardson (1922, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 236) wrote his famous book. NWP has primarily been successful in improving day-by-day forecasts starting from an observed detailed Initial Condition (IC) out to about a week. The purpose of this paper is to discuss first the state of the art in long-range NWP by presenting results of a new large numerical experiment (named DERF90; from Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting in 1990 out to 90 days) conducted at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) during the summer and autumn of 1990 (Section 2). One hundred and twenty eight 90-day global forecasts were made from successive daily initial conditions (IC), thus giving us ample opportunity to assess skill of forecasts at lead times beyond 1 week.We then move on to define the notion of a limit of predictability (LOP), and following a procedure by Lorenz (1982), give a numerical estimate of the LOP using the DERF90 data set. We then produce a list of reasons, as to why this estimate (LOP = 18 days) should not be taken too literally. In particular, we argue that the LOP varies as a function of the flow itself, and it would be (much) larger if we had, as we will ultimately, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for making long-lead forecasts. Last, but not least, we present results of empirical forecasts that point to modest but significant skill well beyond the traditional LOP (a few weeks).A specific recent example of empirical forecasting is discussed. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), experimental forecasts are being made for the United States surface temperatures at lead times of several seasons. While modest, the skill is significant in that it defies the existence or a 3-week LOP, and so demonstrates the potential for model improvements.     

Formation of iron sulfide nodules during anaerobic oxidation of methane

The biomarker compositions of iron sulfide nodules (ISNs; upper Pliocene Valle Ricca section near Rome, Italy) that contain the ferrimagnetic mineral greigite (Fe₃S₄) were examined. In addition to the presence of specific terrestrial and marine biomarkers, consistent with formation in coastal marine sediments, these ISNs contain compounds thought to originate from sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB). These compounds include a variety of low-molecular-weight and branched alkanols and several non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers (DGDs). In addition, archaeal biomarkers, including archaeol, macrocyclic isoprenoidal DGDs and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers are also present. Both SRB and archaeal lipid δ¹³C values are depleted in ¹³C (δ¹³C values are typically less than −50‰), which suggests that the SRB and archaea consumed ¹³C depleted methane. These biomarker and isotopic signatures are similar to those found in cold seeps and marine sediments where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs with sulfate serving as the terminal electron acceptor. Association of AOM with formation of greigite-containing ISNs could provide an explanation for documented remagnetization of the Valle Ricca sediments. Upward migration of methane, subsequent AOM and associated authigenic greigite formation are widespread processes in the geological record that have considerable potential to compromise paleomagnetic records.     

The frequency and periodicity of preserved turbidites in submarine fans as a quantitative record of tectonic uplift in collision zones

The frequency and periodicity of preserved graded turbidite cycles in submarine fans in the Coral Sea and Sea of Japan are correlated to times of tectonic uplift in response to major collisions in the Owen-Stanley Range of Papua and the Hida Range of Japan, respectively. Large frequencies and shorter-term periodicities of turbidites at DSDP Site 210 were coeval with early Pliocene maximum tectonic-uplift rates which occurred in the Owen-Stanley Range in response to obduction. Similarly, large frequencies and shorter-term periodicities of turbidites at Site 299 (Toyama Submarine Fan) were coeval with the late Pleistocene uplift in the Hida Range; this uplift of 1000 to 1500 m occurred in response to collision tectonics. In both cases, trends of increasing frequencies and towards shorter-term periodicities of preserved turbidite depositional events correlate to trends of increasing rates of tectonic uplift.The role of sea-level fluctuations on changing denudation rates in these two collision zones is secondary. At Site 210, larger frequencies and short-term periodicities of preserved turbidites were coeval with early Pliocene high stands of sea level, whereas at Site 299, Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations are considered minor because at low stands of sea level, both relief and denudation rates were increased by about ten to 14%. At Site 286 (New Hebrides Basin), Eocene turbidite deposition is coeval with high stands of sea level, whereas at Site 297 (Northern Shikoku Basin), turbidite deposition was coeval with both rising and falling sea level.Analysis of both frequency and periodicity of turbidites by fan subenvironment at Site 299 indicates a record of continuous deposition, and maintainance of frequency and periodicity trends controlled by tectonic uplift. Late Pleistocene channel and overbank deposits showed periodicity differences of less than 28% of an order of magnitude, whereas Miocene-Pliocene overbank and distal turbidite periodicities differed by a 19% order of magnitude. Greater differences in magnitude occurred between distal turbidites or early Pleistocene age and Pliocene age than between Miocene-Pliocene overbank and distal turbidite deposition with a magnitude difference of 860%. These findings suggest that shifting depocenters and differences in sedimentation history in subenvironments of submarine fans are secondary to the role of tectonic uplift in this particular case.The minimal rate of tectonic uplift required to generate deep-sea fan turbidities appears to be approximately 400 m/million years. This figure is tentative and is based on very few observation points.Frequency and periodicity of preserved turbidite cycles in submarine fans in active continental margins and ancient counterparts should provide an independent measurement of rates and timing of tectonic uplift, particularly in collision terrains. Because this sediment parameter is a record of a single process from a single source and a record of “event stratigraphy”, its usage is preferable over standard and bulk sediment accumulation rates determined from age depth curves.     

Characterization of permineralized kerogen from an Eocene fossil fern

The processes of organic maturation that occur during the permineralization of fossils and the detailed chemistry of the resulting products are incompletely understood. Primary among such processes is the geochemical alteration of biological matter to produce kerogen, such as that which comprises the cell walls of the fossils studied here: essentially unmetamorphosed, Eocene plant axes (specimens of the fossil fern Dennstaedtiopsis aerenchymata cellularly permineralized in cherts of the Clarno Formation of Oregon and the Allenby Formation of British Columbia). The composition and molecular structure of the kerogen that comprises the cell walls of such axes were analyzed using ultraviolet Raman spectroscopy (UV–Raman), solid state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹³C NMR) and pyrolysis–gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (py–GC–MS).Cellularly well-preserved fern axes from both geologic units exhibit similar overall molecular structure, being composed primarily of networks of aromatic rings and polyene chains that, unlike more mature kerogens, lack large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) constituents. The cell walls of the Allenby Formation specimens are, however, less altered than those of the Clarno chert, exhibiting more prevalent oxygen-containing and alkyl functional groups and comprising a greater fraction of rock mass.The study represents the first demonstration of the effectiveness (and limitations) of the combined use of UV–Raman, ¹³C NMR and py–GC–MS for the analysis of the kerogenous cell walls of chert-permineralized vascular plants.