Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors

Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions.It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none’. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts.     

A study of inherited zircons in granitoid rocks from the South Portuguese and Ossa-Morena Zones, Iberian Massif: support for the exotic origin of the South Portuguese Zone

Trace element and U–Pb isotopic analyses of inherited zircon cores from a sample of Gil Márquez granodiorite (South Portuguese Zone, SPZ) and Almonaster nebulite (Ossa-Morena Zone, OMZ, in the Aracena Metamorphic Belt) have been obtained using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. These data reveal differences in the age of deep continental crust in these two zones. Inherited zircon cores from the Ossa-Morena Zone range at 600±100 Ma, 1.7–2 Ga and 2.65–2.95 Ga, while those from the South Portuguese Zone range at 400–500 and 700–800 Ma. These data support the “exotic” origin of the South Portuguese Zone basement relative to the rest of Iberian Massif. The young ages of inherited zircon cores and Nd model ages of magmatic rocks of the South Portuguese Zone are comparable to results from granulite facies xenoliths and granitic rocks from the Meguma Terrane and Avalonia and support a correlation between the basement of the southernmost part of the Iberian Massif and the northern Appalachians.     

Surrogate-based parameter inference in debris flow model

This work tackles the problem of calibrating the unknown parameters of a debris flow model with the drawback that the information regarding the experimental data treatment and processing is not available. In particular, we focus on the evolution over time of the flow thickness of the debris with dam-break initial conditions. The proposed methodology consists of establishing an approximation of the numerical model using a polynomial chaos expansion that is used in place of the original model, saving computational burden. The values of the parameters are then inferred through a Bayesian approach with a particular focus on inference discrepancies that some of the important features predicted by the model exhibit. We build the model approximation using a preconditioned non-intrusive method and show that a suitable prior parameter distribution is critical to the construction of an accurate surrogate model. The results of the Bayesian inference suggest that utilizing directly the available experimental data could lead to incorrect conclusions, including the over-determination of parameters. To avoid such drawbacks, we propose to base the inference on few significant features extracted from the original data. Our experiments confirm the validity of this approach, and show that it does not lead to significant loss of information. It is further computationally more efficient than the direct approach, and can avoid the construction of an elaborate error model.     

LPI-based approach for calibrating the severity of liquefaction-induced failures and for assessing the probability of liquefaction surface evidence

Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) is used as an assessing tool of liquefaction susceptibility. Based on the existing correlation of the LPI values with the liquefaction potential of a site, liquefaction hazard maps have been compiled. The evaluation of liquefaction susceptibility of the soil layers that had been taken into account for the calculation of LPI value, on the existing classifications, was based on the “Chinese criteria”. However, Seed et al. [Seed, R.B., Cetin, K.O., Moss, R.E.S., Kammerer, A.M., Wu, J., Pestana, J.M., Riemer, M.F., Sancio, R.B., Bray, J.D., Kayen, R.E., Faris, A., 2003. Recent advances in soil liquefaction engineering: a unified and consistent framework. 26th annual ASCE L.A. Geotechnical Spring Seminar, Long Beach, California. 71 pp.] concluded that those criteria are conservative and proposed a modification of them.The basic aim of this paper is to examine the impact of these modifications to the existing LPI-based calibrations of severity scale of liquefaction-induced failures and to propose a new one if it is needed, using box–whisker plot method. The data set that was analyzed is compiled by borings with SPT from liquefied and non-liquefied sites in Taiwan, in Turkey and in Greece.Moreover, a LPI-based formula is proposed, as an outcome from the application of logistic regression analysis to the data set, which can be used for predicting the liquefaction surface occurrence. In addition, a discriminant function is suggested for classifying a site as liquefiable or not. In this approach, the LPI and the thickness of the non-liquefiable cap layer are taken into account as the classification parameters.     

Interstadial proboscidean from south-central Alaska: Implications for biogeography, geology, and archeology

In 1980 a large proboscidean femur, probably Mammuthus sp., was found in situ in a bluff exposure at the mouth of the Tyone River in the northwestern part of the Copper River Basin, Alaska. The regional setting, stratigraphy, radiocarbon chronology, flora, and implications of the fossil locality, which represents the first documented occurrence of Pleistocene terrestrial mammalian fauna in southern Alaska, are described. Radiocarbon dates and stratigraphic relations at the site indicate that the sediments containing the fossil accumulated during the transition from interstadial to glacial conditions during terminal middle Wisconsin time. During this interval the immediate vicinity was unforested and large areas of south-central Alaska may have been available for faunal and possibly human habitation. This documented find, dated at 29,450 ± 610 ¹⁴C yr B.P., extends the known range for Pleistocene mammals and possibly steppe-tundra conditions south-ward at least 150 km, and suggests that mountain passes through the Alaska Range to the north were ice free during the last part of the middle Wisconsin interstadial.