Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for cold-water forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. Forage fish (e.g., juvenile pollock, capelin, Pacific herring [Clupea pallasii]) are key prey for adult pollock and other apex predators. In the southeastern Bering Sea, important changes in the biota since the mid-1970s include a marked increase in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all of the ecosystem components valued by society are to thrive. Cognizance of how climate regimes may alter relationships within this ecosystem will facilitate reaching that goal.     

Cadmium, copper, and zinc interactions with marine humus as a function of ligand structure

The interactions in seawater of cadmium, copper, and zinc with natural levels of marine humus (fulvic and humic acids) were studied using differential pulse anodic stripping voltammetry (DPASV). Interactions with Cu were also examined by ultraviolet spectrophotometry. The degree of interaction relates to the structure of the particular fulvic or humic acid tested. Marine fulvic and humic acids with different equivalent weights and varying degrees of aromaticity and heteroatom substitution were tested to assess the relative importance of these fundamental structural features in determining the degree of interaction. An index of heteroatom substitution, derived from proton magnetic resonance spectra of these materials, when combined with equivalent weights correlated with the nature and degree of metal interaction. Both marine fulvic and humic acids appreciably interacted with Zn. In contrast, the extent of interaction of fulvic acids with Cu appears to be related to their structure while humic acids appear to interact with Cu regardless of structure. Cadmium interacts only with mature, highly crosslinked humic acids.     

The Harvest Experiment: Monitoring Jason-1 and TOPEX/POSEIDON from a California Offshore Platform

We present calibration results from Jason-1 (2001-) and TOPEX/POSEIDON (1992-) overflights of a California offshore oil platform (Harvest). Data from Harvest indicate that current Jason-1 sea-surface height (SSH) measurements are high by 138 ± 18 mm. Excepting the bias, the high accuracy of the Jason-1 measurements is in evidence from the overflights. In orbit for over 10 years, the T/P measurement system is well calibrated, and the SSH bias is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Also reviewed are over 10 years of geodetic results from the Harvest experiment.     

Short-term seaward fish migration in the Messolonghi–Etoliko lagoons (Western Greek coast) in relation to climatic variables and the lunar cycle

In the present study we analysed the daily seaward migratory behaviour of four dominant euryhaline fish species (Mugilidae: Liza saliens, Liza aurata, Mugil cephalus and Sparidae: Sparus aurata) in the Messolonghi–Etoliko lagoon system (Western Greek coast) based on the daily landings' time series of barrier traps and assessed the relationship between their migratory behaviour and various climatic variables (air temperature and atmospheric pressure) and the lunar cycle. A 2-year time series of daily fish landings (1993 and 1994), a long time series of daily air temperature and daily temperature range (1991–1998) as well as a 4-year time series of the daily atmospheric pressure (1994–1997) and daily pressure range were used. Harmonic models (HM) consisting of annual and lunar cycle harmonic components explained most (R² > 0.80) of the mean daily species landings and temperature variations, while a rather low part of the variation (0.18 < R² < 0.27) was explained for pressure, daily pressure range and daily temperature range. In all the time series sets the amplitude of the annual component was highest. The model values of all species revealed two important migration periods (summer and winter) corresponding to the spawning and refuge migrations. The lunar cycle effect on species' daily migration rates and the short-term fluctuation of daily migration rates were rather low. However, the short-term fluctuation of some species' daily migration rates during winter was greater than during summer. In all species, the main migration was the spawning migration. The model lunar components of the species landings showed a monthly oscillation synchronous to the full moon (S. aurata and M. cephalus) or a semi-monthly oscillation synchronous to the new and full moon (L. aurata and L. saliens). Bispectral analysis of the model values and the model residuals' time series revealed that the species daily migration were correlated (coherencies > 0.6) to the daily fluctuations of the climatic variables at seasonal, mid and short-term scales.     

Field theoretical techniques in statistical fluid dynamics: With application to nonlinear wave dynamics

Abstract

A derivation of two-point Markovian closure is presented in classical statistical field theory formalism. It is emphasized that the procedures used in this derivation are equivalent to those employed in the quantum statistical field theory derivation of the Boltzmann equation. Application of these techniques to the study of two-dimensional flow on a β-plane yields a quasi-homogeneous, quasi-stationary transport equation and a renormalized dispersion relation for Rossby waves     

Patterned ground formation and penetrative convection in porous media

Abstract

A theoretical explanation is advanced consisting of a five stage process for the formation of polygonal ground which consists of stone borders forming regular hexagons and soil centres. One of these stages, namely the onset of convection in a porous soil between temperatures of 0°C and approximately 4-6°C, is studied analytically. Darcy's law is employed but variable permeability is allowed for and a parabolic density dependence on temperature is assumed. It is found that the theoretical predictions of the aspect ratio agree very well with field studies when a constant upper surface heat flux condition is imposed and an upwardly stratified permeability is chosen. Field study data, which agree very well with the theory, are reported in detail.     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

Rhizocarpon calibration curve for the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand

Development of Rhizocarpon growth curve from the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand provides a means to assess Little Ice Age glacier behaviour and suggests approaches that have wider application. Employing a sampling strategy based on large populations affords the opportunity to assess which of various metrics (e.g. single largest, average of five largest, mean of an entire population) best characterise Rhizocarpon growth patterns. The 98% quantile from each population fitted with a quadric curve forms a reliable representation of the growth pattern. Since this metric does not depend on the original sample size, comparisons are valid where sample strategy must be adapted to local situations or where the original sample size differs. For the Aoraki/Mount Cook area a surface 100 years old will have a 98% quantile lichen diameter of 34.3 mm, whereas a 200‐year‐old surface will have a lichen diameter of 73.7 mm. In the Southern Alps, constraints from the age range of calibration points, the flattening of the quadric calibration curve and ecological factors limit the useful age range to approximately 250 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hydro‐economic modelling framework for flood damage estimation and the role of riparian vegetation

A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.