Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

Authigenic iron and titanium oxides in triassic red beds: (St. Bees Sandstone), Cumbria,Northern England

Authigenic iron and titanium oxides occur in three main textural varieties in the St. Bees Sandstone, a Triassic red bed succession in Cumbria. These are: (a) overgrowths of haematite, titaniferous haematite, anatase, and rutile which generally occur on detrital host grains of similar compositions. The overgrowths may occur as syntaxial rim cements or rhombohedral and prismatic projections and are always in optical continuity, (b) discrete crystals of anatase (including octahedrite) and haematite 10-40 μm in size occur in pore spaces, and (c) fine grained ( < 1 μm) pigmentary haematite occurs as grain coatings around detrital grains and in the interstitial matrix. The euhedral nature and pore-filling habit clearly indicate the authigenic origin of these iron- and titanium oxides. All three textural varieties are believed to have been precipitated from ground waters containing dissolved ferrous and titanium ions. These ions were derived from the intrastratal solution of detrital iron and titanium bearing grains including ferromagnesian silicates and iron-titanium oxides. The precipitation of iron oxides from migrating ground waters in the manner described here goes some way to explaining how thick, uniformly red successions can be formed.     

Principal Components Analysis of Rainfall and Associated Synoptic Models of the Southwest Monsoon over India

Summary  The summer monsoon circulation shows various spatial and temporal oscillations and often a combination of systems produces an integrated effect. In this study phases of the southwest (SW) monsoon have been identified in an objective manner with the help of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) of weekly rainfall anomalies. Mean composite charts have been prepared utilising all available upper air data (1977–1986) for each category of the SW monsoon epochs identified by the PCA. These sets of charts have been constructed for both the strong and weak phases associated with the first four significant principal components (PCs). A well defined east-west oriented trough system, extending from about 28° N Latitude/65° E Longitude to 20° N Latitude/90° E Longitude, in the lower levels, has been the main feature associated with the strong phase of the monsoon corresponding to PC I. The trough in the lower levels is more marked in the eastern half compared to the western half in both the sets of charts associated with strong phases of the monsoon related to the PC II and PC III. With PC II, the position of the troughs in the lower levels is further north of its location in PC III. The east-west trough system associated with the strong phase of PC IV has a large southward tilt with height. The charts corresponding to the weak phases of these PCs have synoptic features, such as the position of the trough close to the foothills of the Himalayas, and the shifting of middle and upper tropospheric anticyclones to the south. The study suggests an objective method of interpretation of principal components by utilising synoptic data. In addition, synoptic models and data sets corresponding to different phases of the monsoon can also be prepared in an objective manner by such PCA. Received July 18, 1997 Revised April 30, 1999     

The interpretation of body trace metal concentrations in neogastropods from Hong Kong.

Three species of neogastropods, i.e., Thais clavigera, Thais luteostoma and Morula musiva, were collected from 12 sites in the coastal waters of Hong Kong, including clean and known metal-enriched ones. Accordingly, body trace metal concentrations varied greatly. Copper and zinc body concentrations compared poorly with those of accepted biomonitors and presumed metal contamination profiles. Much is known about the feeding ecology of neogastropods on local shores and where direct observational data were not available, their diets could, nevertheless, be estimated reliably. Accumulated metal concentrations can be interpreted with regard to dietary history. T. luteostoma, for example, had body copper concentrations of 51.8 microg g(-1) on an exposed shore and a diet of mainly barnacles. In contrast, on a sheltered shore (but only some 250 m distant) where the diet consisted mainly of oysters, body copper concentrations were approximately 15 times greater at 833 microg g(-1). Similar results were obtained for T. clavigera. The results of this analysis suggest that neogastropods can play a significant role in trace metal trophic transfer studies, especially as their representatives are intertidally and subtidally ubiquitous and can be spatially separated into tropical specialists and temperate generalists.     

Guided wave propagation in laterally varying media - II. Lg-waves in north-western Europe

Summary. Lg -wave observations at NORSAR from a sequence of explosions straddling the Central Graben in the North Sea, show that the phase is almost extinguished by passing through this structure. For models of the graben structure, based on seismic refraction experiments, with crustal thinning beneath a zone of thickened sediments, numerical modelling of Lg propagation shows very poor transmission. The inclusion of attenuation simulating the effects of scattering from faults and other complex structures further diminishes the transmittivity. The theoretical effect of a crustal pinch is to redistribute S energy over a wide range of groups velocities, a pattern that fits well with the observations.
Three components recordings at NORSAR of explosive charges fired in water covering a wide range of azimuths, show significant transverse components to the seismograms. The transverse energy builds up with travel time and for Lg is of the same order as the vertical component. These results are consistent with the theoretical prediction of progressive net transfer of energy from Rayleigh to Love modes as the wavetrain propagates through a three-dimensionally heterogeneous medium.     

Contribution of electrical tomography methods in geotechnical investigations at Mavropigi lignite open pit mine,Northern Greece

In this paper, the application of 2D and 3D electrical resistivity methods in geotechnical investigations is explored through a case study in Northern Greece. These two methods were employed at a lignite surface mining operation where fracture zones and discontinuities have been recently observed close to the pit boundaries. The main aim of the geophysical survey was to estimate the inclination of the contact between the Neogene and Schist/Carbonate formations near the southern limits of the pit, as well as to estimate the thickness of the carbonate rocks on top of the Schist formations to evaluate the stability of the southern slopes. Synthetic data were initially generated to help plan an efficient electrical tomography survey, in a region with complex geology and irregular terrain. Three configurations (Wenner–Schlumberger and dipole–dipole or pole–dipole) proved essential in such conditions and helped improving the resolution of the resistivity section. The sections were then calibrated by boreholes. Finally, the geophysical survey provided invaluable data regarding the geometry of the bedrock and possible faults, which was essential for the slope stability calculations.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.