Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12?km-NAM, 13?km-RUC and 32?km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised.     

Probabilistic evaluation of soil–foundation–structure interaction effects on seismic structural response

Complex seismic behaviour of soil–foundation–structure (SFS) systems together with uncertainties in system parameters and variability in earthquake ground motions result in a significant debate over the effects of soil–foundation–structure interaction (SFSI) on structural response. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of foundation flexibility on the structural seismic response by considering the variability in the system and uncertainties in the ground motion characteristics through comprehensive numerical simulations. An established rheological soil‐shallow foundation–structure model with equivalent linear soil behaviour and nonlinear behaviour of the superstructure has been used. A large number of models incorporating wide range of soil, foundation and structural parameters were generated using a robust Monte‐Carlo simulation. In total, 4.08 million time‐history analyses were performed over the adopted models using an ensemble of 40 earthquake ground motions as seismic input. The results of the analyses are used to rigorously quantify the effects of foundation flexibility on the structural distortion and total displacement of the superstructure through comparisons between the responses of SFS models and corresponding fixed‐base (FB) models. The effects of predominant period of the FB system, linear vs nonlinear modelling of the superstructure, type of nonlinear model used and key system parameters are quantified in terms of different probability levels for SFSI effects to cause an increase in the structural response and the level of amplification of the response in such cases. The results clearly illustrate the risk of underestimating the structural response associated with simplified approaches in which SFSI and nonlinear effects are ignored. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in diagenetic carbonates from marine sediments

The isotopic composition of some sixty samples of penecontemporaneous diagenetic carbonates from marine horizons shows that they are strikingly different from normal marine limestones. The variation of C¹³ ratio is 5·6 per cent, the lightest carbonate measuring -54%. A mechanism for the formation of such light carbon dioxide is postulated, involving the enzymic decarboxylation of organic compounds at low temperatures. A study of the oxygen isotopic composition of coexisting calcite and rhodochrosite indicates that, whereas the latter has retained its isotopic composition from the time of precipitation, the calcite has undergone equilibration during diagenesis. Isotopic measurements on such diagenetic carbonates would confuse palaeoenvironmental studies but may throw light on the processes of diagenesis.     

New Zealand since 1984: Elite succession, income distribution and economic growth in a small trading economy

Four interrelated patterns of structural change in the New Zealand economy since 1980 are identified and analysed, against the backdrop of a growth rate which fell substantially behind the rest of the OECD in the late 1980s and early 1990s before recovering, but without catchup, from 1993. The changes discussed are: a shift in sharemarket capitalization from formerly-dominant productive activities in agriculture, manufacturing and construction to the current predominance of utilities, transport and finance; a sharp increase in overseas investors' share of the economic surplus, from around 20% to over half of post-tax corporate profits; a steady rise in international indebtedness at the same time as sovereign foreign-currency debt was eliminated; hence overseas debt was successfully privatized; a weakening of regulatory control over monopoly profits, opening the way for a surge of rent-seeking activity during the 1990s. The neoliberal reform programme has achieved fiscal and monetary sustainability, increased market flexibility, and insulated the economy against external shocks. At the same time it has led to denationalisation of economic surplus, ongoing current account deficits, and a significant diversion of resources from productive use into rent-seeking. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Channel evolution of Des Moines Lobe till drainage ditches in southern Minnesota (USA)

Some drainage ditches in the intensively managed row-crop agricultural region of southern Minnesota evolved from a trapezoidal form to multi-staged channel forms similar to natural streams. Older ditches constructed in cohesive sediment of the Des Moines Lobe till tend to follow a channel evolution model developed by Simon and Hupp. Site cross sections, longitudinal water and bed profiles and bed material particle size were determined according to Harrelson and others at 24 older ditch reaches, 5 newly constructed ditch reaches and 13 natural stream reaches. Morphological features were hypothesized to change from trapezoidal form to flat bench banks, similar to benches found in natural stream channels. All data were statistically analyzed with respect to drainage area using regression, because channel form is directly related to drainage area for a given climate, geology and land use. Results show similar regression slope and intercept for bankfull channel width and bankfull cross-sectional area (CSA) of older ditches and natural streams compared to typical trapezoidal designed ditches. Evolved ditches developed a small floodplain bench above the ditch bed and adjusted their bankfull widths similar to natural stream channels with respect to drainage area. Old ditches showed a relatively strong R ² (0.82, 0.68) for channel CSA and width, a weaker R ² (0.45) for water surface slope, and little to no correlation with bed particle size. Channel form appears to have adjusted more quickly than bed facets and/or bed particle size distribution. However, stepwise regression determined that D₈₄, width/depth ratio and mean bankfull depth explained 83?% of the variability of channel features across varying drainage areas. Findings suggest a possible reduction of long-term maintenance costs if older ditches are allowed to evolve over time. A stable ditch form similar to natural streams is typically self-sustaining, suggesting that prior to a scheduled clean-out, the ditch should be examined for hydraulic capacity, sediment transport and bank stability.     

Morphology,processes and evolution of two waterfalls near Cowra,New South Wales

The morphology and processes of formation and maintenance of waterfalls are more varied and complex than is suggested by the simple caprock‐undercutting model that is closely identified with Niagara Falls. The dominant process of retreat of two buttressed waterfalls near Cowra, NSW, seems to be failure along joint planes at the lips of the waterfalls. In the case of the larger of the two waterfalls, this process is significantly enhanced by the formation and subsequent destruction of potholes at the waterfall lip.     

How Do Farmers’ Climate Change Beliefs Affect Adaptation to Climate Change?

This exploratory study aims to examine (1) the reasons for farmers’ range of climate change beliefs and (2) how those beliefs affect their climate change adaptation responses. Interviews with 11 key-informant irrigators from the South Australian Riverland uncovered skepticism about climate change predictions. Interviewees mostly believed changes to the climate were not human-induced but were a result of natural cycles, which meant that they then felt less obliged to undertake climate-change adaptation responses. With low water allocations and low commodity prices, most did not identify climate change as their most compelling problem. They found it hard to identify climate change adaptation options beyond those they had implemented to manage their immediate problems. The reasons for interviewees’ stated skepticism are complex, but not as equated to disbelief as they might seem. Their beliefs about climate change appear to be chosen to allow them to retain hope for the future.     

Widespread syn-sedimentary deformation on a muddy deep-water basin-floor: the Vischkuil Formation (Permian), Karoo Basin, South Africa

The ∼380-m-thick mudstone–siltstone-dominated Vischkuil Formation represents the initiation phase of a 1.3-km-thick prograding basin floor to slope to shelf succession that marks a significant increase in the rate of siliciclastic sediment supply to the early Karoo Basin in the Permian. In the upper Vischkuil Formation three well exposed, widespread (∼3000 km²) 10–70-m-thick intervals of deformed strata are encased within undeformed sediments. Such chaotic mass movement deposits that are mappable over areas comparable with seismic-scale mass transport deposits are commonly associated with submarine slope settings. However, the surrounding lithofacies and the correlation of distinctive marker beds indicate that these deformation intervals developed in a distal low gradient basin floor setting. The deformed intervals comprise a lower division of tight down-flow verging folds dissected by thrust planes that sole out onto a highly sheared décollement surface that are interpreted as slides. The lower divisions are overlain by an upper division of chaotic lithofacies with large contorted clasts of sandstone supported by a fine-grained matrix interpreted as a debrite. The juxtaposition of these lithofacies, the distribution of thickness of the divisions, and their close kinematic relationships indicate that the emplacement of the debris-flows triggered and drove the underlying slide, in a low-gradient distal setting. Individual beds in the deformed intervals can be mapped laterally into undeformed strata indicating limited movement of the slide. Therefore, widespread zones of syn-sedimentary deformation in deep-water settings do not necessarily indicate a slope setting and should not be used as single criterion to determine depositional setting. When associated with major debrites they may be developed on a flat basin floor.