From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model: an event-based approach

ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.     

The Banhad?o Alkaline Complex, Southeastern Brazil: source and evolution of potassic SiO2-undersaturated high-Ca and low-Ca magmatic series

The Cretaceous Banhad?o alkaline complex in southeastern Brazil presents two potassic SiO₂-undersaturated series. The high-Ca magmatic series consist of initially fractionated olivine (Fo_92-91) + diopside (Wo_48-43En_49-35Ae_0-7), as evidenced by the presence of xenocrysts and xenoliths. In that sequence, diopside (Wo_47-38En_46-37Ae_0-8) + phlogopite + apatite + perovskite (Prv_>92) crystallized to form the phlogopite melteigite and led to the Ca enrichment of the magma. Diopside (Wo_47-41En_32-24 Ae_3-14) continued to crystallize as an early mafic mineral, followed by nepheline (Ne_74.8-70.1Ks_26.3-21.2Qz_7.6-0.9) and leucite (Lc_65-56) and subsequently by melanite and potassic feldspar (Or_85-99Ab_1-7) to form melanite ijolites, wollastonite-melanite urtites and melanite-nepheline syenites. Melanite-pseudoleucite-nepheline syenites are interpreted to be a leucite accumulation. Melanite nephelinite dykes are believed to represent some of the magmatic differentiation steps. The low-Ca magmatic series is representative of a typical fractionation of aegirine-augite (Wo_36-29En_25-4Ae_39-18) + alkali feldspar (Or_57-96Ab_3-43) + nepheline (Ne_76.5-69.0Ks_19.9-14.4Qz_15.1-7.7) + titanite from phonolite magma. The evolution of this series from potassic nepheline syenites to sodic sodalite syenites and sodalitolites is attributed to an extensive fractionation of potassic feldspar, which led to an increase of the NaCl activity in the melt during the final stages forming sodalite-rich rocks. Phonolite dykes followed a similar evolutionary process and also registered some crustal assimilation. The mesocratic nepheline syenites showed interactions with phlogopite melteigites, such as compatible trace element enrichments and the presence of diopside xenocrysts, which were interpreted to be due to a mixing/mingling process of phonolite and nephelinite magmas. The geochemical data show higher TiO₂ and P₂O₅ contents and lower SiO₂ contents for the high-Ca series and different LILE evolution trends and REE chondrite-normalized patterns as compared to the low-Ca series. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb initial ratios for the high-Ca series (0.70407–0.70526, 0.51242–0.51251, 17.782–19.266 and 38.051–39.521, respectively) were slightly different from those of the low-Ca series (0.70542–0.70583, 0.51232–0.51240, 17.758–17.772 and 38.021–38.061, respectively). For both series, a CO₂-rich potassic metasomatized lithospheric mantle enriched the source with rutile-bearing phlogopite clinopyroxenite veins. Kamafugite-like parental magma is attributed to the high-Ca series with major contributions from the melting of the veins. Potassic nephelinite-like parental magma is assigned to the low-Ca series, where the metasomatized wall-rock played a more significant role in the melting process.     

Analysis of aquifer vulnerability and water quality using SINTACS and geographic weighted regression

Aquifer vulnerability and water quality were assessed in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca (Mexico) using the SINTACS method, based on a geographic information system. SINTACS layers were prepared using data such as climate (rainfall and temperature), water table, hydraulic conductivity, geology, soil type and topographic model. Maps for water quality index (WQI), contamination index and pollution sources index (PSI) were also obtained by this work. Groundwater quality in the Central Valleys may be affected by two factors, those with an anthropogenic origin and those with natural origin. High vulnerability values are located in the valleys of the basin, where granular sediments are exposed. Low vulnerability values are distributed in the basin??s ranges, where metamorphic rocks are found. Given that many of the zones with the highest groundwater vulnerability values correspond to zones with the greatest PSI values, there is great risk of groundwater contamination for the area of study because external (indicated by PSI) and internal (indicated by SINTACS) factors that cause pollution can be frequently observed in the same place. Geographic weighted regression (GWR) is used to test the dependency between WQI as dependent variable and SINTACS, PSI, Urban localities, Agriculture, Pastures and Rivers as predictors. The results indicate the non-stationary behavior of the dependent variable with respect to the predictors. While the obtained GWR models used to model WQI cannot be used in practical situations to predict the behavior of said variable, they can be used to estimate the degree to which the predictors influence the variable of interest.     

Assessment of the development of aquifer management councils (COTAS) for sustainable groundwater management in Guanajuato, Mexico

Collective groundwater management by water users—self-regulation—is increasingly advocated as a complement to state regulation. This article analyzes the attempts by the Guanajuato State Water Commission (CEAG) in central Mexico to promote user self-regulation through the establishment and development of 14 Consejos Técnicos de Aguas (COTAS; Technical Water Councils). Based on a joint assessment by a former senior CEAG policy-maker and two researchers, Guanajuato’s groundwater-management policy is reviewed to understand why user self-regulation was less successful than expected. It concludes that increasing awareness and improving the knowledge base on groundwater is not enough to trigger self-regulation by groundwater users. A wider delegation of responsibilities to the COTAS is necessary, combined with: (1) functioning mechanisms for enforcing groundwater legislation, especially concerning well permits and pumped volumes, and (2) mechanisms that ensure the legitimacy and accountability of users??representatives to both users and state agencies.     

Effects of sediment contaminants and environmental gradients on macrobenthic community trophic structure in Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Macrobenthic communities from estuaries throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico were studied to assess the influence of sediment contaminants and natural environmental factors on macrobenthic community trophic structure. Community trophic data were also used to evaluate whether results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests were effective indicators of site-specific differences in benthic trophic structure. A multiple regression model consisting of five composite factors (principal components) was used to distinguish the effects of sediment contaminants and environmental variables on benthic community trophic structure. This model explained 33.5% of the variation in macrobenthic trophic diversity (p<0.001), a variable derived from the distribution of taxas among nine original trophic categories. A significant negative relatinship was found between principal components reflecting concentrations of sediment contaminants and macrobenthic trophic diversity. Detritivores including surface deposit-feeders (SDF), subsurface deposit-feeders (SSDF), and filter feeders (FF) were numerically dominant at 201 random sites, each group accounting for 25–30% of total macrobenthic abundance. The relative abundance of SDFs was considerably lower (12.1±2.9% to 17.1±4.4%) at sites where sediment contaminant concentrations exceeded minimum biological effects thresholds (ER-L values from Long and Morgan 1990 than at sites sampled at random (29.3±5.7%). SSDFs were proportionally more abundant at contaminated sites (42.0±7.7% to 63.6±10.3%) versus random sites (27.5±5.7%), and the relative abundance of SSDFs was positively correlated with concentrations of particular contaminants. Benthic trophic structure was also found to be a function of salinity, where the proportion of SSDFs was negatively correlated with salinity (p=0.035, r=−0.223, n=326). Silt-clay content loaded fairly strongly on the first principal component, but trophic structure parameters were not significantly correlated with sediment grain size or dissolved oxygen (perhaps due, in part, to covariation). Results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests with mysids were predictive of differences in macrobenthic trophic structure in situ (i.e., mysid survival was negatively correlated with %SSDF; p<0.001, r=−0.292, n=326). Results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests with ampeliscid amphipods were not indicative of site-specific differences in benthic trophic structure.     

Proximal and distal styles of pegmatite-related metasomatic emerald mineralization at Ianapera,southern Madagascar

The Ianapera emerald deposit is located in the Neoproterozoic Vohibory Block of southern Madagascar. The local geology consists of intercalated migmatitic gneissic units and calcareous metasedimentary rocks, containing boudinaged metamorphosed mafic/ultramafic lenses, all intruded by pegmatite veins. These units occur near the hinge of the tightly folded Ianapera antiform, within a few kilometers of the Ampanihy shear zone. Emerald mineralization is hosted by metasomatic phlogopite veins, and bodies developed within the mafic/ultramafic rocks. Based on field and textural relationships, we distinguish proximal and distal styles of mineralization. Proximal mineralization occurs at the contact of pegmatite veins with mafic/ultramafic units; in the distal style, pegmatites are not observed. Three types of emeralds could be distinguished, mainly on the basis of color and mineral zoning. Some of these emeralds have the most Al-depleted and Cr-rich composition ever recorded. Another characteristic feature to the Ianapera deposit and, to our knowledge, yet unreported, is the association of some emeralds with scapolite in metasomatised mafic rocks. Mineral inclusions are common in most emeralds and include phlogopite, carbonates, barite, K-feldspar, quartz, pyrite, zircon, monazite, bastnaesite, phenakite, plus Fe and Cr oxides. However, feldspar and rare earth element-bearing minerals occur predominantly in proximal emeralds, which also have a more incompatible trace-element signature than distal emeralds. We propose a model related to syn- to post-tectonic magmatic-hydrothermal activity. Pegmatitic bodies intruded units of the Ianapera antiform probably during tectonic relaxation. Exsolution of fluids rich in halogens and incompatible elements from the cooling pegmatites caused hydrothermal metasomatism of Cr-bearing mafic/ultramafic rocks in direct contact with the pegmatites. Local fracturing favored fluid infiltration, permitting the formation of distal mineralization. Emerald composition was controlled by the chemistry of the host rock. The presence of carbonate mineral inclusions in the emeralds and the high F-activity indicated by elevated F-contents in newly formed minerals suggest transport of Be as a fluoride-carbonate complex. It seems likely that beryl formation was triggered by precipitation of F-rich phlogopite, which removed the complexing ligand from the fluid.     

Green-winged teal ingest epibenthic meiofauna

Several hundred green-winged teal (Aves: Anatidae: Anas crecca) were observed foraging along a mudflat devoid of seeds and only sparsely inhabited by macrobenthic infauna in southwestern Louisiana. Of eight teal collected in this habitat, four had ingested substantial numbers of meiofauna. Use of prey in this size range has not been reported for waterfowl. Meiofauna have been recognized only recently as important components of the food chain of marsh ecosystems. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY058 00014     

The Moravian missionaries at the Labrador coast and their centuries-long contribution to instrumental meteorological observations

The history of instrumental meteorological observations in Labrador/Nunatsiavut, Canada, began in August 1771 when the Unitas Fratrum, also known as the “Moravian Brethren”, established a mission among the Inuit on the Labrador coast. The Brethren named this place “Nain” after a city mentioned in the New Testament of the Bible. The missionaries included learned men, trained in the natural sciences, and in October of that same year they began to undertake instrumental meteorological observations. These observations have been continued, in one form or another, to the present day. As will be shown in this paper, the year 1771 thus marks the beginning of a long time series of meteorological observations from Labrador. The authors of this paper are currently researching the climatic history of the Labrador/Nunatsiavut region by tracing the meteorological observations of the Moravian missionaries to be found in scientific publications of the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As will be demonstrated, the records of these observations in Labrador go through several stages; from being almost completely forgotten, to being published and republished in the main international meteorological journals. In this latter context, it may be said that the channels for the distribution of this knowledge are still being charted; this process involves tracking contacts between the Moravian Church and their sympathisers, as well as between the Church and contemporary scientists. This paper seeks to elucidate knowledge of these old records by placing them in the context of the research field of historical climatology and, at the same time, to honour the Moravian missionary observers for their valuable contribution to knowledge of past variations in climate.