Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

Consequences of artificially opening coastal lagoons on their fish assemblages

The consequences of artificially opening lagoon entrances on the fish assemblages of coastal lagoons in south-eastern Australia were investigated. Impacts of lagoon opening were assessed by comparing changes in the fish assemblages of Werri and Shellharbour Lagoons, both of which intermittently opened to the sea with that of Lake Illawarra, a third coastal lagoon which remained closed during the study period. Numbers of fish species and individuals did not differ significantly after lagoon openings at Werri Lagoon and Shellharbour Lagoon. However, higher numbers of species and individuals were found in Lake Illawarra before the other lagoons had opened. Abundances of some economically significant species (namelyMugil cephalus, Myxus elongatus andLiza argentea) significantly increased after openings, mainly due to small juveniles (<40 mm FL) recruiting to the seagrass beds. In contrast, these species were caught as larger juveniles (>70 mm FL) in Lake Illawarra. Furthermore, their abundance in Lake Illawarra declined during successive months, coinciding with declining salinity. Abundances of resident species (such asPseudomugil olorum andAfurcagobius tamarensis) remained largely unchanged after openings. Although it was clear that marine-spawning species must benefit from lagoon openings, the number and composition of species able to move into lagoons from adjacent waters may be dependent upon the frequency, duration and time of year that the entrance is connected to the sea. The present study thus provides data which may be useful for fisheries management in intermittently open lagoons. However, these results should not be cited as reason to artificially open lagoon entrances as further detailed studies of other aspects of lagoon biota, such as their invertebrate and avian faunas, are also needed to provide sufficient basis for broader management frameworks.     

Stratigraphy and sedimentology of lower carboniferous (Dinantian) boreholes from West Co. Meath,Ireland

The 2-km deep Athboy Borehole (1439/2) together with the lower part of boreholes EP30 and N915 form a standard type section for strata of Dinantian (Courceyan to Asbian) age in west Co. Meath. Above a thin basal red-bed siliciclastic sequence, the marine Courceyan shelf succession is almost 600 m thick. It comprises the Liscartan, Meath, and Moathill Formations of the Navan Group and the Slane Castle Formation of the succeeding Boyne Group. The shallow-water limestones include micrites, oolites, and sandy bioclastic packstones and grainstones with subordinate skeletal wackestones and shales. Lateral facies changes from north to south in the Navan area suggest deepening across a shelf towards a depocentre further to the south around Trim. The deeper-water Waulsortian Limestones of late Courceyan to Chadian age (Feltrim Formation, ca. 213 m thick) form a series of five sheet-like mudbanks, interbedded with generally thin units of nodular crinoidal limestones and shales. The mudbanks are formed of bryozoan-rich peloidal wackestones and lime-mudstones with phase C and D components. Rare soft-sediment breccias occur at the bottom and top of banks. The succeeding Fingal Group commences with a thin interval (3–20 m) of black shales, laminated packstones, and micritic limestones of Chadian age, the Tober Colleen Formation. This is followed by the Lucan Formation (Chadian to Asbian) predominantly of laminated and graded calciturbidites, laminated sandstones, cherts, and black shales, which is over 1300 m thick. Ten sedimentary units have been informally defined, based on lithofacies and facies associations. The oldest unit, the Tara Member, is characterized by proximal debris-flow breccia deposits and nodular mudstones. A thick bioturbated micrite and shale unit (Ardmulchan Member) in the middle of the formation is overlain directly by a coarse oolitic and crinoidal grainstone unit (Beauparc Member). Near the top of the formation is a distinctive unit of coarse-grained laminated sandstones and shales (Athboy Member). The highest rocks in the Borehole are clean thickly-bedded limestones of the Asbian Naul Formation (>90 m thick). The youngest Dinantian strata in the area, the Brigantian Loughshinny Formation, marks a return to shale-dominant basin sedimentation. The significance of this work lies in the fact that the Athboy borehole is the longest continuously cored borehole in the Carboniferous of Ireland and provides a continuous sedimentary and biostratigraphic record for the northern part of the Dublin Basin. Foraminiferal biozones (Cf2–Cf6) have been recognized in this and in borehole N915, and Stage boundaries identified, which can be applied throughout the Basin. The sedimentary record for the Lucan Formation indicates four tectonic pulses during the Viséan, in the late Chadian/early Arundian, mid-Arundian, Holkerian, and late Holkerian/early Asbian.     

An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.     

Carbon fluxes in the China Seas: An overview and perspective

This paper aims to provide an overview of regional carbon fluxes and budgets in the marginal seas adjacent to China.The "China Seas" includes primarily the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea. Emphasis is given to CO_2 fluxes across the air-sea interface and their controls. The net flux of CO_2 degassing from the China Seas is estimated to be9.5±53 Tg C yr~(-1). The total riverine carbon flux through estuaries to the China Seas is estimated as 59.6±6.4 Tg C yr~(-1). Chinese estuaries annually emit 0.74±0.02 Tg C as CO_2 to the atmosphere. Additionally, there is a very large net carbon influx from the Western Pacific to the China Seas, amounting to ～2.5 Pg C yr~(-1). As a first-order estimate, the total export flux of particulate organic carbon from the upper ocean of the China Seas is 240±80 Tg C yr~(-1). This review also attempts to examine current knowledge gaps to promote a better understanding of the carbon cycle in this important region.     

An iron isotope signature related to electron transfer between aqueous ferrous iron and goethite

We measured the Fe isotope fractionation during the reactions of Fe(II) with goethite in the presence and absence of a strong Fe(III) chelator (desferrioxamine mesylate, DFAM). All experiments were completed in an O₂-free glove box. The concentrations of aqueous Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_aq]) decreased below the initial total dissolved Fe concentrations ([Fe(II)_total], 2.15 mM) due to fast adsorption within 0.2 day. The concentration of adsorbed Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_ads]) was determined as the difference between [Fe(II)_aq] and the concentration of extracted Fe(II) in 0.5 M HCl ([Fe(II)_extr]) (i.e., [Fe(II)_ads] = [Fe(II)_extr] − [Fe(II)_aq]). [Fe(II)_ads] also decreased with time in experiments with and without DFAM, documenting that fast adsorption was accompanied by a second, slower reaction. Interestingly, [Fe(II)_extr] was always smaller than [Fe(II)_total], indicating that some Fe(II) was sequestered into a pool that is not HCl-extractable. The difference was attributed to Fe(II) incorporated into goethite structure (i.e., [Fe(II)_inc] = [Fe(II)_total] −[Fe(II)_extr]). More Fe(II) was incorporated in the presence of DFAM than in its absence at all time steps. Regardless of the presence of DFAM, both aqueous and extracted Fe(II) (δ^56/54Fe(II)_aq and δ^56/54Fe(II)_extr) became isotopically lighter than or similar to goethite (− 0.27‰) at day 7, implying that the isotope exchange occurred between bulk goethite and aqueous Fe. Consistently, the mass balance indicated that the incorporated Fe is isotopically heavier than extracted Fe. These observations suggested that (i) co-adsorption of Fe(II) with DFAM resulted in more pervasive electron transfer, (ii) the electron transfer from heavy Fe(II) in the adsorbed Fe(II) to light Fe(III) in goethite results in the fixation of heavy adsorbed Fe(III) on the surface and accumulation of Fe(II) within the goethite, and (iii) desorption of the reduced, light Fe from goethite does not necessarily occur at the same surface sites where adsorption occurred.     

Phytoplankton biomass and nutrient distributions in the Amazon River plume: Environmental correlates

The distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the plume of the Amazon River over the Brazilian continental shelf is analyzed by the use of multiple regression. Previous attempts to assess how different parameters control phytoplankton biomass have used pairwise correlations. A multiple regression approach, however, allows the elucidation of collinearity between these parameters. This approach reveals that phytoplankton biomass may be predicted largely by the following three groups of collinear variables that resemble the factors of factor analysis: suspended-sediment concentration and transparency (which generally describe irradiance availability), salinity and temperature (which describe vertical stratification, a measure of water-column stability), and the ambient concentrations of nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicic acid, and nitrite). The effects of water clarity and nutrients have been previously described, but the importance of vertical stability has never been separated from the other two. Additional important single variables were oxygen, ammonia, and urea. The strength of the contribution of particular variables to a regression model depends on the season of the cruise and hence on the volume of riverine discharge.