Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

Late Quaternary tephra layers around Raoul and Macauley Islands,Kermadec Arc: implications for volcanic sources,explosive volcanism and tephrochronology

A suite of deep‐sea cores were collected along transects up to 100 km across the fore‐arc and back‐arc regions of the predominantly submarine Kermadec arc near Raoul and Macauley islands, southwest Pacific. The cores reveal a macroscopic tephra record extending back >50 ka. This is a significant addition to the dated record of volcanism, previously restricted to fragmented late Holocene records exposed on the two islands. The 27 macroscopic tephra layers display a wide compositional diversity in glass (～50–78 wt% SiO₂). Many tephra layers comprise silicic shards with a subordinate mafic shard population. This could arise from magma mingling and may reflect mafic triggering of the silicic eruptions. Broadly, the glass compositions can be distinguished on diverging high‐K and low‐K trends, most likely arising from different source volcanoes. This distinction is also reflected in the tephra records exposed on Raoul (low‐K) and Macauley (high‐K) islands, the likely source areas. Heterogeneous tephra comprising shards of both high‐ and low‐K affinity, silicic and mafic compositions, and more homogeneous tephra with subordinate outlier shard compositions, are best explained by post‐depositional mixing of separate eruption deposits or contemporaneous eruptions. Evidently, the slow sedimentation rates of the calcareous oozes (～10¹–10² mm ka^?1) were insufficient to adequately separate and preserve closely spaced eruption deposits. This exemplifies the difficulty in assessing eruption frequencies and magmatic trends, and erecting a tephrostratigraphy, using geochemical fingerprinting in such environments. Despite these difficulties, the ca. 5.7 ka Sandy Bay Tephra erupted from Macauley Island can be correlated over a distance of >100 km, extending east and west of the island, showing that the mostly submerged volcanoes are capable of wide tephra dispersal. Hence there is potential for developing chronostratigraphies for the southwest Pacific beyond the region covered by the extensive rhyolite marker beds from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleoecological investigation of recent lake acidification in the northern Great Lakes states

Paleoecological analyses of sediments from nine northern Great Lakes states (NGLS) lakes reveal small pH changes in seven of these lakes since 1860, four of these being declines. The largest diatom-inferred (DI) pH declines of 0.5 pH units were found in Brown L. and Denton L., Wisconsin. Two other lakes with suspected total alkalinity declines (based on an acidification model and on historical water chemistry, respectively), McNearney L., Michigan, and Camp 12 L., Wisconsin, have not acidified recently according to diatom-inference techniques. Many of the observed trends of increasing pH are coincident with logging; floristic composition of diatom assemblages also changed coincident with fisheries manipulations in some lakes, but these floristic trends did not affect DI pH. Sediment core profiles of Pb, S, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons provide a record of atmospheric deposition of fossil fuel combustion products beginning around the turn of the century; onset is later and accumulation rates are smaller than for other northeastern study regions of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) Project. The response of diatom species to lakewater pH in the NGLS region is very strong and similar to response in other regions. Overall, there is little paleoecological evidence that acidic deposition has caused significant acidification of lakes in the NGLS region.This is the twelfth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D.F. Charles and D.R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Galaxy magnitudes

In this, the first of a short series of papers on the magnitudes of galaxies, the dependence of magnitude on the aperture used in photoelectric measures is discussed. mean results from an empirical study are presented.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

Sinton crater, Mars: Evidence for impact into a plateau icefield and melting to produce valley networks at the Hesperian-Amazonian boundary

The majority of martian valley networks are found on Noachian-aged terrain and are attributed to be the result of a ‘warm and wet’ climate that prevailed early in Mars' history. Younger valleys have been identified, though these are largely interpreted to be the result of localized conditions associated with the melting of ice from endogenic heat sources. Sinton crater, a 60 km diameter impact basin in the Deuteronilus Mensae region of the dichotomy boundary, is characterized by small anastomosing valley networks that are located radial to the crater rim. Large scale deposits, interpreted to be the remains of debris covered glaciers, have been identified in the area surrounding Sinton, and our observations have revealed the occurrence of an ice rich fill deposit within the crater itself. We have conducted a detailed investigated into the Sinton valley networks with all the available remote data sets and have dated their formation to the Amazonian/Hesperian boundary. The spatial and temporal association between Sinton crater and the valley networks suggest that the impact was responsible for their formation. We find that the energy provided by an asteroid impact into surficial deposits of snow/ice is sufficient to generate the required volumes of melt water needed for the valley formation. We therefore interpret these valleys to represent a distinct class of martian valley networks. This example demonstrates the potential for impacts to cause the onset of fluvial erosion on Mars. Our results also suggest that periods of glacial activity occurred throughout the Amazonian and into the Hesperian in association with variations in spin orbital parameters.     

Globalising initiatives for gender equality and poverty reduction: Exploring ‘failure’ with reference to education and work among urban youth in The Gambia and Ghana

This paper focuses on what observers have perceived to be a failure of development leading to a ‘crisis of youth’ as increasing numbers of young people find it more difficult to gain education, access to health, a job and meet standard of living aspirations. For some, a possible escape is offered by migration to Europe, the United States or Australia, often illegally. For those remaining behind, however, international development agencies offer a ‘globalisation of solutions’ to employment, gender inequality and poverty through the millennium development goals and the programmes to attain them. In this paper we do not take the failures of development at face value but look at local contexts to present a more complex picture of the relation between education, work and social life. Based on fieldwork conducted in urban areas of The Gambia and Ghana, we argue that rather than education as a catch-all solution we need to give more attention to the costs incurred by and for young people in pursuing education and training, to the operation of and actual opportunities in labour markets, and to patterns of gender socialisation which give women limited scope to exercise agency. This paper explores key gender dimensions of work and education among low-income urban youth noting that despite on-going efforts to increase young women’s enrolment in schools and access to employment, gender inequalities have been far from eradicated. Our field interviews reveal how social expectations that women should perform the bulk of reproductive labour in their youth as well as in adulthood and constraints placed on young women’s personal freedom in respect of their social relationships reduce time dedicated to education and establish fewer contacts relevant to securing paid employment. The result is for men to end up with more educational qualifications, more skills, and higher-paying jobs, even if unemployment among young people in general remains a major problem.     

The effect of target properties on crater morphology: Comparison of central peak craters on the Moon and Ganymede

Abstract— We examine the morphology of central peak craters on the Moon and Ganymede in order to investigate differences in the near‐surface properties of these bodies. We have extracted topographic profiles across craters on Ganymede using Galileo images, and use these data to compile scaling trends. Comparisons between lunar and Ganymede craters show that crater depth, wall slope and amount of central uplift are all affected by material properties. We observe no major differences between similar‐sized craters in the dark and bright terrain of Ganymede, suggesting that dark terrain does not contain enough silicate material to significantly increase the strength of the surface ice. Below crater diameters of ?12 km, central peak craters on Ganymede and simple craters on the Moon have similar rim heights, indicating comparable amounts of rim collapse. This suggests that the formation of central peaks at smaller crater diameters on Ganymede than the Moon is dominated by enhanced central floor uplift rather than rim collapse. Crater wall slope trends are similar on the Moon and Ganymede, indicating that there is a similar trend in material weakening with increasing crater size, and possibly that the mechanism of weakening during impact is analogous in icy and rocky targets. We have run a suite of numerical models to simulate the formation of central peak craters on Ganymede and the Moon. Our modeling shows that the same styles of strength model can be applied to ice and rock, and that the strength model parameters do not differ significantly between materials.