Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales

High‐magnitude floods across Europe within the last decade have resulted in the widespread reassessment of flood risk; this coupled with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive (2000) has increased the need for a detailed understanding of seasonal variability in flood magnitude and frequency. Mean day of flood (MDF) and flood seasonality were calculated for Wales using 30 years of gauged river‐flow records (1973–2002). Noticeable regional variations in timing and length of flood season are evident, with flooding occurring earlier in small catchments draining higher elevations in north and mid‐west Wales. Low‐altitude regions in West Wales exposed to westerly winds experience flooding during October–January, while large eastern draining catchments experience later flooding (January–February). In the northeast and mid‐east regions December–January months experience the greatest number of floods, while the southeast has a slightly longer flood season (December–February), with a noticeable increase in January floods. Patterns obtained from MDF data demonstrate their effectiveness and use in analysing regional patterns in flood seasonality, but catchment‐specific determinants, e.g. catchment wetness, size and precipitation regime are important factors in flood seasonality. Relatively strong correlations between precipitation and flood activity are evident in Wales, with a poorer relationship between flooding and weather types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Environment of YSO Jets

It is commonly accepted that stars form in molecular clouds by the gravitational collapse of dense gas. However, it is precisely not the infalling but the outflowing material that is primarily observed. Outflow motions prevail around both low and high mass young stellar objects. We present here results from a family of self-similar models that could possibly help to understand this paradox. The models take into account the heating of the central protostar for the deflection and acceleration of the gas. The models make room for all the ingredients observed around the central objects, i.e. molecular outflows, fast jets, accretion disks and infalling envelopes. We suggest that radiative heating and magnetic field may ultimately be the main energy sources driving outflows for both low and high mass stars. The models show that the ambient medium surrounding the jet is unhomogeneous in density, velocity, magnetic field. Consequently, we suggest that jets and outflows have a prehistory that is inprinted in their environment, and that this should have direct consequences on the setting of jet numerical simulations.     

Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.     

An examination of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic surface air temperatures in the CMIP5 historical runs

Climate Dynamics - Strong relationships exist between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and surface air temperature (SAT) across much of Antarctica. Changes in the SAM will have a profound influence...     

Axisymmetric annulus convection at unit Prandtl number

Abstract

We examine the role played in annulus flows by mechanisms dependent upon the Prandtl number, σ. Solutions are obtained at σ = 1 for both the real annulus system and for the hypothetical “free annulus” system (free slip lateral boundaries). These solutions are compared with previously obtained solutions at σ = 7.

In the free annulus, the solution at σ = 1 differs radically from that at σ = 7. The σ = 1 solution appears to be essentially a finite amplitude mode due to Solberg instability whereas the solution at σ = 7 manifests a flow caused by the diffusive overturning mechanism.

The variation with σ of the real annulus flow is not so fundamental but some differences in the dynamical structures are noted.     

Deformation metamorphism of bituminous and anthracite coals from China

Tectonic displacement of coal seams in China has resulted in faulting parallel to coal bedding. Displacement along these faults caused significant comminution of the coal on the footwall contributing to various mining problems, the worst of which is catastrophic failure, or “outbursting” of the working face during mining. The granular texture and mostly unconsolidated nature of the coal suggests that faulting occurred relatively late in the coalification sequence, at a time of maximum tectonic stress. Coal samples taken on either side of the fault plane (normal and deformed coal layers) were obtained in an effort to establish what influence these tectonic stresses might have had on coal properties as well as what they might reveal about the influence of tectonic pressure on organic maturity. Sample sets were collected within coal beds from undisturbed and adjacent deformed layers, including 21 bituminous samples from the Pingdingshan coal field and nine anthracite samples from the Jiaozuo coal field, the Tieshenggou coal mine of the Yuxi coal field in Henan province, the Beijing Xishan coal field, the Baijiao mine of the Furong coal field in Sichuang province and the Baisha coal field in Hunan province, China. Results from vitrinite reflectance, proximate and ultimate analyses show some differences in reflectance, hydrogen content and nitrogen content of anthracite coal. No significant difference was found between volatile matter yields of normal and deformed coal specimens. GC measurements of the saturated hydrocarbon fraction of chloroform extracts from bituminous coals showed that lower molecular weight carbon fragments were concentrated in the deformed samples. Therefore, although changes in the gross chemical properties of the deformed coal were insignificant, some modification of the chemical structure is seen to have occurred as a result of exposure to tectonic pressure.     

Numerical modeling of oblique hypervelocity impacts on strong ductile targets

Abstract– The majority of meteorite impacts occur at oblique incidence angles. However, many of the effects of obliquity on impact crater size and morphology are poorly understood. Laboratory experiments and numerical models have shown that crater size decreases with impact angle, the along‐range crater profile becomes asymmetric at low incidence angles, and below a certain threshold angle the crater planform becomes elliptical. Experimental results at approximately constant impact velocity suggest that the elliptical threshold angle depends on target material properties. Herein, we test the hypothesis that the threshold for oblique crater asymmetry depends on target material strength. Three‐dimensional numerical modeling offers a unique opportunity to study the individual effects of both impact angle and target strength; however, a systematic study of these two parameters has not previously been performed. In this work, the three‐dimensional shock physics code iSALE‐3D is validated against laboratory experiments of impacts into a strong, ductile target material. Digital elevation models of craters formed in laboratory experiments were created from stereo pairs of scanning electron microscope images, allowing the size and morphology to be directly compared with the iSALE‐3D craters. The simulated craters show excellent agreement with both the crater size and morphology of the laboratory experiments. iSALE‐3D is also used to investigate the effect of target strength on oblique incidence impact cratering. We find that the elliptical threshold angle decreases with decreasing target strength, and hence with increasing cratering efficiency. Our simulations of impacts on ductile targets also support the prediction from Chapman and McKinnon (1986) that cratering efficiency depends on only the vertical component of the velocity vector.     

Stability of co-orbital ring material with applications to the Janus-Epimetheus system

An analytical model that describes the evolution of ring particles that are co-orbital with two larger bodies on near-circular and near-planar orbits has been formulated. This can be used to estimate the lifetime of the particles within the ring. All the examples investigated, such as the Janus-Epimetheus (JE) system, indicate that the particles should be removed from the co-orbital region within half a synodic period (∼4 years for JE). Numerical modelling confirms the predictions of the model. When the masses are on eccentric orbits the particles remain within the co-orbital system for longer. Our results suggest that the ring associated with Janus and Epimetheus must be continually fed with material, probably by meteoroid impacts on the two satellites.     

Restriction of sponges to an atoll lagoon as a result of reduced environmental quality

The lagoon at Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific was subject to major military modifications during WWII and now the dominant fauna on the lagoon’s hard substrate are sponges, not corals. In this study, we quantified the physical and biological factors explaining the variation in sponge distribution patterns across 11 sites to determine the potential for the sponges in the lagoon at Palmyra to invade the surrounding reef systems. Significant differences in sponge assemblages were found among all but three sites. For all the models we examined the strongest environmental relationships were found for variables related to sedimentation/turbidity and food/habitat availability. Our findings suggest that the sponges in Palmyra’s lagoon are likely to be restricted to this habitat type where they are associated with conditions resulting from the earlier heavy disturbance and are unlikely to spread to the outer reef environments unless there is a dramatic decline in environmental quality.     

Modeling damage and deformation in impact simulations

Abstract— Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for investigating the formation of large impact craters but is one that must be validated with observational evidence. Quantitative analysis of damage and deformation in the target surrounding an impact event provides a promising means of validation for numerical models of terrestrial impact craters, particularly in cases where the final pristine crater morphology is ambiguous or unknown. In this paper, we discuss the aspects of the behavior of brittle materials important for the accurate simulation of damage and deformation surrounding an impact event and the care required to interpret the results. We demonstrate this with an example simulation of an impact into a terrestrial, granite target that produces a 10 km‐diameter transient crater. The results of the simulation are shown in terms of damage (a scalar quantity that reflects the totality of fragmentation) and plastic strain, both total plastic strain (the accumulated amount of permanent shear deformation, regardless of the sense of shear) and net plastic strain (the amount of permanent shear deformation where the sense of shear is accounted for). Damage and plastic strain are both greatest close to the impact site and decline with radial distance. However, the reversal in flow patterns from the downward and outward excavation flow to the inward and upward collapse flow implies that net plastic strains may be significantly lower than total plastic strains. Plastic strain in brittle rocks is very heterogeneous; however, continuum modeling requires that the deformation of the target during an impact event be described in terms of an average strain that applies over a large volume of rock (large compared to the spacing between individual zones of sliding). This paper demonstrates that model predictions of smooth average strain are entirely consistent with an actual strain concentrated along very narrow zones. Furthermore, we suggest that model predictions of total accumulated strain should correlate with observable variations in bulk density and seismic velocity.