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Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: a case study in the Huai River Basin,China

Together with affected areas of crops from 1978 to 2008, the daily precipitation of 110 stations located in the Huai River Basin during 1959–2008 was used to study the critical conditions when drought and flood occur, based on which the quantitative relationship between the critical condition and the affected area of crops was further studied. Based on the research on the hazard-formative factor of precipitation and the damage degree of crops, the spatial-temporal characteristics of disasters were analyzed, the drought and flood disaster-causing threshold was determined, and the quantitative relationship between the disaster-causing threshold and affected area of crops was established. The results are as the follows: (1) During 1959–2008, extreme precipitation levels were high in the eastern and western part of the Huai River Basin and were low in its central part; the spatial distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) differed greatly from average extreme precipitation: the series of most stations were located in the central basin, and especially there was a positive trend in Anhui and Henan Provinces. (2) The cumulative precipitation during the disaster period of each station was divided by its mean cumulative precipitation during the same period in 1959–2008 to obtain the disaster-causing threshold, which has shown a good effect on reflecting the actual grade and affected areas in disasters. (3) The relationship among disaster grade, disaster-causing threshold and damage area of crops was established; this threshold can be used as a tool for agricultural disaster assessment and early warning, and can effectively improve the ability to prevent and mitigate disaster in the Huai River Basin. (4) The disaster-causing threshold can be an important input parameter for hazard assessment; other underlying surface indicators can be good supplements for determining the threshold in hazard assessment.     

川滇M≥6.7强震的二维坐标系与时间预测研究

20世纪以来,川滇地区M≥6.7强震时间间隔具有良好的规律性,其地震发生的年份可组成一个二维时间坐标系,并据此建立川滇地区的强震时间预测模型。预测分析表明：未来16年,川滇地区可能存在发生4次6.7级以上地震发生的风险,2012-2021及2025-2029年均有M≥6.7强震信号,且未来强震可能发生在2014-2015、2019与2027年前后。     

新疆2次中强地震前的临界慢化现象研究

以2011年尼勒克、巩留交界6.0级和新源、和静交界6.6级地震为例,研究了2次地震前周边的形变和流体资料的临界慢化现象。首先,用小波变换方法对观测资料进行了预处理,然后计算了临界慢化现象的预警指标,方差和自相关系数,进而总结了2次6级地震发生前观测资料的临界慢化现象特征。结果表明,2次6级地震前出现了临界慢化现象。     

A new record of ponyfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Deveximentum megalolepis</Emphasis> (Perciformes: Leiognathidae) in Beibu Gulf of China

A new record ponyfish, Deveximentum megalolepis Mochizuki and Hayashi, 1989, was documented based on its morphological characteristics and DNA barcode. Fifty specimens were collected from Beibu Gulf of China and identified as D. megalolepis by morphological characterization. The coloration, meristic traits, and morphometric measurements were consistent with previously published records. In general, it is a silver-white, laterally compressed and deep bodied ponyfish with 6–9 rows of scales on cheek; scale rows above lateral line 6–8; scale rows below lateral line 14–17. Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I subunit (COI) gene fragment was sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. There is no sequence variation of COI gene between the specimens collected in this study. The genetic distances between D. megalolepis and other congeneric species range from 3.6% to 14.0%, which were greater than the threshold for fish species delimitation. The COI sequence analysis also supported the validity of D. megalolepis at genetic level. However, the genetic distance between Chinese and Philippine individuals was about 1.2% and they formed two lineages in gene tree, which may be caused by the geographical distance.     

汶川8.0级地震地表变形局部化样式与建筑物破坏特征关系初步研究

本文以汶川地震地表形变带的实地测量数据为基础,结合沿实测地震地表变形剖面建筑物破坏情况的调查与测量,分析了不同地震地表变形类型及其建筑物破坏特征,定量化地讨论了地表变形梯度与建筑物破坏程度间的关系。提出无论地震地表变形表现为何种类型的断层陡坎,地表破裂、强变形局部化在宽10~30m的地表破裂带内;建筑物受损情况最直接的影响是建筑物所处地点的地表变形梯度,地表变形梯度大于0.1的地段,建筑物均完全被摧毁;地表变形梯度在0.07~0.1间的地段,建筑物遭受严重损坏,产生倾斜及强烈变形等;地表变形梯度在0.03~0.07之间的地段,建筑物可能受到中度损坏,产生倾斜及变形等,具有抗震设防能力的构建筑物一般不会倒塌;地表变形梯度小于0.03的地段具有抗震设防能力的构建筑物一般只会受到轻的损坏或基本完好。     

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Community structure and seasonal variation of soil arthropods in the forest-steppe ecotone of the mountainous region in Northern Hebei,China

Soil fauna have been receiving more and more attention because they play an important role in nutrient cycling. However, there is a lack of information on soil arthropods in the forest-steppe ecotone in the mountainous region of northern Hebei, which makes it difficult to meet the need of protecting biodiversity in this area. Soil arthropod communities were investigated in the forest-steppe ecotone in northern Hebei province to provide basic information on changes in mountain soil fertility, which could promote the development of soil arthropod communities in mountain ecotones. From the preliminary identification, a total of 7994 individual soil arthropods were collected, which belonged to 25 groups, 6 classes and 24 orders. Acarina, Hymenoptera and Collembola were the dominant groups in the ecotone. The number of Acarina was higher than Collembola, and this phenomenon was obviously different from other areas in the same climate zone. The increased abundance of rare groups in the Forest zone with the richer vegetation, higher arthropod abundance and more substantial litter depth, could be interpreted as a reaction to the suitable soil environment and food supply. And these rare groups were sensitive to environmental changes, which could be regarded as biotic indicators for evaluating soil quality. The analysis of community diversity showed that the abundance index (d), the Shannon-Wiener index (H′), the evenness index (J) and the density-group index (DG) were significantly higher in the forest zone, lower in the forest-steppe zone, and lowest in the meadow-steppe zone. Seasonal variations in community composition correlated with changes in average air temperature and precipitation in this ecotone. Groups and individuals of soil arthropod communities in the three zones were present in greater numbers in the middle of the rainy season than in the early or late periods of the rainy season as a whole. At the same time, seasonal changes in soil arthropod communities from different plots were also influenced by habitat condition.     

Effects of Earth's curvature and radial heterogeneity in dislocation studies:Case studies of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake

Recently,effects of Earth's curvature and radial heterogeneity on coseismic deformations are often investigated based on the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.However,such effects are strongly related to earthquake types.As a low dip angle event,the 2004 Sumatra earthquake is not a good seismic case for such a topic since the effects for moderate dip angle events are much bigger.In this study,the half-space and spherical dislocation theories are used,respectively,to calculate coseismic displacements caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.Effects of Earth's curvature and stratification are investigated through the discrepancies of results calculated using the two dislocation theories.Results show that the effects of Earth's curvature and stratification for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are much larger than those for the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.Ignoring the effects will cause errors up to 100%-200% in far field displacements for a moderate dip angle event like the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Such great effects are much bigger than those conclusions of previous studies.Besides,comparison with observations verifies that spherical dislocation theories yield better results than half-space ones in far fields.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events during 1951–2011 in Shandong,China and possible connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation

Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong.