Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s     

华南西南季风活跃期间大气热量和动量的收支

本文讨论了西南季风活跃期华南区域平均对流层运动学特征和热量水汽,动量的收支。计算表明,我国西南季风活跃期对流层特征既不同于冷空气活动期也不同南海季风活跃期。此时华南整层对流层处反气旋流场中,无辐散层位于700毫巴,下层辐散上层辐合。西南季风层为下沉运动,上层为上升运动。热量收支表明,季风层为视热汇和视水汽源,东风层为视热源。切变层以上水汽源汇数值很小,不起明显作用。水热源汇主要由垂直运动造成。动量收支表明,在季风层动量基本上是准平衡的,只有在对流层上层和近地面层有动量盈亏,动量收支主要来自地转偏差。最后,我们简单讨论了次网格尺度涡旋对水热平衡的贡献,认为西南季风期垂直涡旋输送十分活跃,其输送水热的作用超过气团变性过程所起的作用。      

青藏高原净生态系统碳交换量的遥感评估模型研究

青藏高原作为世界海拔最高的区域,是全球气候变化的敏感区之一。定量估算这一区域的净生态系统碳交换量（NEE）有利于理解陆地生态系统碳平衡对未来气候变化的响应。本文构建了一个模拟该地区NEE动态变化的净碳收支模型（NCBM）。该模型由来源于MODIS影像的增强型植被指数（EVI）、陆地表面水分指数（LSWI）以及来源于地面观测的空气温度和短波辐射共同驱动,并利用青藏高原地区的3种植被类型（包括高寒灌丛、高寒湿地和高寒草甸）的碳通量长期观测数据对模型进行了校准和验证。结果表明,在模型校准站点年,NCBM模型可以模拟NEE观测值81%的变化,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.03molC/m2/d,模型效率（EF）为0.81。在模型验证站点年,NCBM模型可以预测NEE观测值84%的变化,RMSE为0.03molC/m2/d,EF为0.81。在大多数情况下,NCBM模型可以清晰地模拟各植被类型的NEE季节和年际变化。此外,NCBM模型因为结构简单,模型驱动变量易于获取等优势,具有在区域尺度上模拟NEE时空变化的潜力。但是该模型还需要进一步的改进和发展,特别需要提高对植被非常稀疏地区NEE变化的模拟能力。     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

江西利山金矿床地质特征及控矿构造

本文较系统地阐述了利山金矿床的各项地质特征，并重点就控矿构造问题进行了总结讨论，认为ＮＷＷ向断裂带严格控制了所有金矿体的产出。ＮＮＥ、ＮＮＷ向断裂与ＮＷＷ向断裂带的交汇部位控制了富矿段的产出。在此基础上初步探讨了矿床成因及找矿方向，这对该地区的找矿评价和开发均具有实际意义     

青岛城区一次冰雹过程分析

利用常规探测和区域自动站、雷达等资料,分析了2007年5月28日发生在青岛市的冰雹天气过程,结果表明:这次冰雹天气是在高中低3层都有冷涡系统且呈前倾槽结构的天气背景下发生的;925 hPa的西南急流和中高层的不稳定都有利于冰雹云的形成;冰雹发生前,青岛城区上空低层大气逆温、逆湿,中层有干冷空气入侵,为冰雹云形成提供了有利的位势不稳定层结;造成5月28日青岛城区降雹的直接影响系统是超级单体雷暴,冰雹云的移动和冰雹落区与地面中γ尺度气旋相对应.     

An Improved Approach for Parameterizing Surface-Layer Turbulent Transfer Coefficients in Numerical Models

Based on classic iterative computation results, new equations to calculate the surface turbulent transfer coefficients are proposed, which allow for large ratios of the momentum and heat roughness lengths. Compared to the Launiainen scheme, our proposed scheme generates results closer to classical iterative computations. Under unstable stratification, the relative error in the Launiainen scheme increases linearly with increasing instability, even exceeding 15%, while the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 8.5%. Under stable stratification, the Launiainen scheme uses two equations, one for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.08 and another for 0.08 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2, and does not consider the condition that Ri _B > 0.2, while its relative errors in the region 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 exceed 31 and 24% for momentum and heat transfer coefficients, respectively. In contrast, the present scheme uses only one equation for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 and another equation for Ri _B > 0.2, and the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 14%.     

Observational estimation of heat budgets on drifting ice and open water over the Arctic Ocean

It is of major scientific interests to determine the parameters of momentum, heat and vapor exchange in the planetary boundary layer in order to study the effects of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions and their feedback mechanisms on global climate[1]. Lin…     

吉林省一次强对流天气的中尺度分析

作者对１９９３年８月１２日发生在吉林省境内的一次龙卷风天气进行了分析。结果表明：在出现龙卷风之前和形成初期，地面风场，高空环流形势，Ｑ↑→矢量散度，对流稳定度和能量场诸方面都有表现，可提供预报信息。