Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

关于地震台站极性校正的问题

国内外的台网中总是一些台站，其极性读取似乎是由大量台站Ｐ波初动的整体分布确定的震源机制相矛盾，这些矛盾通常被作为坏读（ｂａｄ ｒｅａｄｉｎｇ）处理，造成台站的极性问题的复杂原因究竟是什么，利用ＮＥＩＣ的核爆资料，文中给出两种可能推测：台站仪器本身的不可和地震本身的复杂性。     

北京地区地震、爆破和矿震的记录图识别

以北京地区台网数据为例，讨论了天然地震、人工地震和矿山地震的区别，并对多重地震和不同地区的地震特征进行了分析。     

数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响

用著名的Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统作了共轭变分同化的数值试验。发现随着模式对初值敏感性程度的增加，用这种方法得到和模式相协调的初始场愈来愈困难，直到某些情况下的完全失败。这表明四维同化和可预报期限是联系在一起的。另一方面，随着方程不精确程度的增加，变分同化的效果愈来愈差，直到所做的预报无任何意义可言。如果在做变分同化的同时对模式参数也进行反演，就可使得基于Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统所做的预报效果大大提高。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE FORMATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper,we use a two-dimensional primary equation model which contains (1) heating ofradiation,(2) heating of condensation,and (3) transfers of sensible and latent heat between air andthe underlying surface.To investigate the causes for the formation of the eastern North Pacific sum-mer monsoon,the data at 110°W are obtained and winds at underlying surface and at 200 hPa aremodified under the conditions (1) removing topography and (2) changing meridional sea surface tem-perature (SST) gradient.In the numerical modification,we find that by removing the topography,the center's location ofthe eastern North Pacific summer monsoon does not change,but the intensity of the summer monsoonis weakened.Also the onset of the summer monsoon is delayed to the end of May.The tropical east-erly jet is weakened obviously,even changes to westerly wind.On the other hand,we find that theSST gradient along 110°W influences the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon distinctly.If theSST gradient is decreased,the center of the southwest wind near 12°N does not exist any more.theintensity of the whole summer monsoon becomes very weak and the circulation pattern of the summermonsoon also changes a lot.Finally,we indicate that both topography and meridional SST gradient play important roles inthe occurrence of the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon.The meridional SST gradient is themost important factor that triggers the summer monsoon and the topography along 110°W influencesthe intensity and the onset time of the summer monsoon there mostly.     

辽宁地区活动断裂对输油管道影响的研究

本文对辽宁地区６个输油管道段两侧１０ｋｍ范围内的断层活动性进行了研究，其中有５条晚更新世－全新世断裂与管道相交，交叉点共有８处。在此基础上，重点研究了跨断层输油管道的震害特点，给出了不同地震烈度下剪切与弯曲破坏概率及震害预测结果。     

行星边界层内低涡的环流结构

本文研究了常见低涡在行星边界层内的环流结构,指出了在行星边界层内的摩擦作用下,较弱的低涡就可以导致明显的径向流动,产生从四周向低涡中心的辐合,使中心附近垂直运动达到中尺度垂直运动的量级。同时利用多参数摄动法对非定常轴对称减弱低涡进行了环流结构的演变分析。     

几种辅助设备在强震仪中的应用

本文介绍了GPS、eMODEM、DE-211串口设备服务器等辅助设备在GDQJ-2型固态地震动强度记录仪中的应用，包括各自的功能、作用、实现方法以及和强震仪的接口。     

泾阳4.8级地震前后重力变化探析

系统分析了泾阳Ms4．8地震前后陕西关中地区流动重力观测资料，探讨了重力场的时空变化及其映震特征。结果表明：①震前在震中区附近形成较显著地重力负异常区，且与沉降区基本吻合。②泾阳地震震中区既是重力变化梯度带，也是重力异常的正值区到负值区的过度带。③由于震源区应力作用方式是以水平为主的左旋走滑运动，震前局部重力异常不显著。     

苏北潮滩湿地不同生态带碳、氮、磷分布特征*

通过对比苏北潮滩湿地不同生态带的表层以及柱状沉积物中总有机碳、总氮、总磷和有机磷含量,并结合不同植被不同植株部位中碳、氮、磷的含量变化,分析了潮滩沉积物中碳、氮、磷的垂向和水平分布特征与规律,探讨了不同生态带以及潮滩植被对碳、氮、磷等生源要素的富集作用。对比分析结果表明:苏北潮滩湿地各生态带对不同的测量指标有着不同的富集作用,互花米草滩的总有机碳、总氮和有机磷含量要远大于其他几个生态带,光滩沉积物中总磷的含量最高; 粒度效应是控制互花米草前缘地带以及互花米草滩沉积物中有机碳和氮分布的一个重要因素,盐蒿和芦苇滩中有机碳和氮的分布更多的是受粒度之外的其他因素影响; 不同生态带表层沉积物中的C/N比值分布,大致可反映其有机物来源的差异,而不同生态带中柱状沉积物中的C/N比值相对接近,很难根据C/N比值大小来对不同生态带中的有机物来源进行判断,这可能是埋藏在柱状沉积物中的有机物更多的受到了早期成岩作用造成的。植被对潮滩湿地中碳、氮、磷的分布有着重要影响,3种物质在互花米草、盐蒿和芦苇中的含量差别不是很大,因此潮滩植被对沉积物中上述3种物质的贡献差别主要是由不同植被的生物量和其所处环境的沉积动力差异造成的。