De(re)forestation and climate warming in subarctic China

Although tropical deforestation bears a close relationship with climate change, its exact contribution to climate warming and its threshold of exerting a noticeable influence remain unknown. This study attempts to bridge this knowledge gap by analyzing deforestation data of Heilongjiang Province, China in relation to climate data. It is found that forest cover was reduced from 238,335 km² in 1958 to 216,009 km² in 1980, and further to 207,629 km² in 2000. During this period the provincial annual temperature rose by 1.68 °C, against the nation-wide warming of 0.99 °C during the same period. At the provincial level the observed deforestation caused a warming in the vicinity of 0.69 °C. This warming does not bear any definite relationship with latitude and elevation. At the local scale, deforestation is related inversely to the rise in decadal temperature in the form of ΔT = −0.013ΔF + 0.4114 (R² = 0.30). There is a positive relationship between the accuracy (R² value) of predicting climate warming from deforestation and its severity. The critical threshold for deforestation to exert a noticeable impact on climate warming (e.g., R² = 50%) appears to be 5 km². The amount of forest cover at the beginning of a period can inhibit temperature rise, but its exact effect on climate warming is difficult to quantify.     

中国煤炭资源供应格局演变及流动路径分析

利用1949—2008年的相关统计数据,分析中国煤炭资源供应格局和流动路径,结果表明:(1)国家政策变动对中国煤炭资源消费规模影响深刻,每一次政策变化都会造成能源消费规模的波动,近年来强烈的能源需求使得我国煤炭供应不得不面临进口的现实;(2)受能源需求和资源禀赋的双重压力,大规模、跨区域、长距离的煤炭运输成为我国能源运输体系的重要特征;(3)尽管煤炭运输方式在向铁路、水路和公路组合并用的多元化发展,但仍然不能满足旺盛的能源需求,煤炭运输瓶颈始终存在,变输煤为输电是缓解当前煤炭运输困难的一个途径。     

保定地区雷电分布特征及短时预警模型分析

根据保定市近2002—2011年18个地面观测站的雷暴日资料,分析研究了保定市雷电活动的时空分布特点。在此基础上利用保定市11部大气电场监测仪组网实时监测数据,找出电场幅值和上升率两个预警因子确定预警阈值,建立保定雷电短时预警模型。通过对36个雷电样本进行检验：提前30分钟预警的准确率达到60%,前20分钟达到74%,提前10分钟达到88%。结果表明,随着时间临近其预警准确率明显提高,对雷电短时预警具有很好的参考价值。     

呼和浩特市近50a气温变化特征分析

利用呼和浩特市1961—2010年气温资料,用线性回归、方差分析等统计方法分析呼市气温的年代际变化特征以及季节性变化规律,指出近50a来平均气温以每0.57℃/10a的幅度增高。     

内蒙古气象服务热线平台的设计与实现

内蒙古气象服务热线平台是基于Windows操作平台开发的一款应用于气象行业的C／S版声询信息管理系统。采用VOIP技术实现全国省（自治区）一级人工气象服务热线平台和中国气象局人工气象服务热线平台之间的联网,实现全国人工服务的联网。为达到中国气象局在全国范围内统一特服号码-4006000121,以省（自治区）为单位建设气象服务热线平台。     

新疆新一代区域数值预报业务系统客观检验分析

运用MET检验工具,对新一代乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统(RMAPS-CA)和目前业务运行系统(DOGRAFS)各季节业务模式预报性能进行对比检验分析.结果表明,相较于DOGRAFS系统,RMAPS-CA系统具有更高的空间分辨率和预报检验评分,预报能力明显提高.具体表现为:(1)对于高空要素预报,RMAPS-CA系统温...     

Wave-dependence of friction velocity,roughness length,and drag coefficient over coastal and open water surfaces by using three databases

The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s^-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.     

基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报

为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.     

河南省北部一次大雾天气过程分析

利用地面观测和探空资料以及NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,分析了2007年12A25-27日河南省北部大雾的成因,结果表明：由于降水后低层相对湿度较大,大气层结稳定,地面处在均压场里,风速较小,且大气低层为弱的上升运动、中高层为强的下沉运动,有利于低层水汽聚集,使湿层达到一定的厚度,从而使垂直能见度变差,雾的浓度变大。     

相控阵天气雷达波束特性

为了缩短雷达的探测周期, 相控阵天气雷达必须采用宽波束发射, 多波束接收。该文在天线口径为均匀分布和非均匀分布情况下讨论了相位扫描天线的方向图, 对波束特性进行分析, 提出采用非均匀划分子空间方法可对相位扫描天线带来的波束展宽效应和增益减小进行补偿, 并模拟设计了一个相控阵天气雷达天线方案, 给出宽波束和多个窄波束方向图及波束参数。结果表明:海明加权方法可使副瓣电平降低到-25 dB, 能基本满足天气探测需求; 采用非均匀划分子空间能够对波束宽度和天线增益进行补偿; 文中所设计的天线方案不仅能够缩短雷达的探测周期, 还能充分利用雷达的照射能量。