Implementation of a surface runoff model with Horton and Dunne mechanisms into the regional climate model RegCM_NCC

A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National Climate Center regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCMANCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme （noted as CTL） basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme （noted as NRM） reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows： with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation （latent heat flux） are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCMANCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere.     

基于纠错编码的小波域自适应盲水印算法

提出了一种小波域自适应盲水印算法,并采用(7,4)汉明码技术进行纠错编码.以伪随机二值序列作为水印,采用中值系数抖动的方法将水印嵌入到小波变换后的低频分量,并且根据小波域系数间隔的大小自适应地确定水印量化步长,水印检测过程不需要原始图像的参与.实验结果表明,算法的自适应性强,具有较好的不可见性,且可以有效地抵抗JPEG压缩、锐化、加噪、模糊和缩放等攻击.     

环境损害鉴定评估的土壤基线确定方法

近年来,国内环境污染事故频繁发生,由此引发的环境损害问题日益严重。环境损害鉴定评估是中国推行的一项应对环境污染损害的重要环保举措,而基线则是确定损害的关键。基线确定作为损害评估与修复的重要组成部分,是科学评估的关键技术环节和重要前提,也是中国开展环境损害鉴定评估亟待解决的问题。总结国际上常用的4种基线确定方法：即历史数据法、参考点位法、环境标准法和模型推算法的优缺点及应用情况,探讨不同基线确定方法的具体工作步骤,并结合中国土壤环境研究工作积累与进展,提出中国土壤基线确定基本原则和推荐“4步法”工作程序,对中国开展土壤环境损害鉴定评估工作具有重要的理论意义和科学指导作用。     

略图调制系统的设计与实现

介绍了应用Visual C 6.0开发工具开发的略图调制系统,内容主要包括：开发背景、系统总体构成、主要功能和应用实例,并对一些技术要点作了原理性阐述,最后简单展望了进一步的工作。     

东海陆架盆地雁荡低凸起综合地球物理解释及其成因探讨

通过对东海陆架盆地西部地震和重磁资料的综合地球物理解释,对雁荡低凸起展布形态进行了细致刻画,凸起呈NE方向不连续展布于瓯江凹陷和闽江凹陷之间,长约170 km、宽约15~50 km.地震资料揭示雁荡低凸起上广泛发育了侏罗纪与白垩纪地层,厚度约为500~1500 m,展布面积约5000 km2,局部缺失中生界地层.凸起两侧中生代盆地结构差异明显,西侧瓯江凹陷为典型的断陷盆地,东断西超、断裂发育,半地堑、掀斜断块等中生界构造样式发育;东侧闽江凹陷为坳陷型盆地,断裂、火成岩不发育,挤压背斜、断背斜、反转构造等中生界构造样式发育.自由空间重力异常图与剩余重力异常图上,凸起表现为一系列NE向团块状重力高值区,而磁力异常ΔT图上则表现为深部磁场强度低的特征,火成岩影响部位可见磁力高值异常.综合凸起及邻域重磁震、莫霍面深度等地质地球物理资料,认为雁荡低凸起为一元古界组成的古隆起,区别于东部的台北低凸起.同时,结合区域构造演化及沉积特征,推测侏罗纪时期雁荡低凸起与浙闽隆起区可能连为一体,晚白垩世近东西向伸展作用下浙闽隆起发生裂陷进而形成了雁荡低凸起.     

一种新型射电天文频谱仪——声表面波频谱仪

本文简要介绍一种以傅里叶交换的线性调频Z变换(CZT)算法为工作原理,以声表面波(SAW)器件为支持性技术的新型射电频谱仪.给出它在紫金山天文台青海站13.7m射电天文望远镜13mm接收系统上对22GHz水分子脉泽源试观测的结果,实践表明它具有宽带、高频率分辨率、全固化、机械稳定性好、对工作环境要求不高、可靠性高等优点.在射电天文星际分子谱线观测技术中有一定实用价值.     

A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.     

Multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling of daily activity satisfaction using GPS-integrated activity diary data

In this research, we match web-based activity diary data with daily mobility information recorded by GPS trackers for a sample of 709 residents in a 7-day survey in Beijing in 2012 to investigate activity satisfaction. Given the complications arising from the irregular time intervals of GPS-integrated diary data and the associated complex dependency structure, a direct application of standard (spatial) panel data econometric approaches is inappropriate. This study develops a multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling approach to analyse such data, which conceptualises time as continuous and examines sequential correlations via a time or space-time weights matrix. Moreover, we manage to simultaneously model individual heterogeneity through the inclusion of individual random effects, which can be treated flexibly either as independent or dependent. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed for model implementation. Positive sequential correlations and individual heterogeneity effects are both found to be statistically significant. Geographical contextual characteristics of sites where activities take place are significantly associated with daily activity satisfaction, controlling for a range of situational characteristics and individual socio-demographic attributes. Apart from the conceivable urban planning and development implications of our study, we demonstrate a novel statistical methodology for analysing semantic GPS trajectory data in general.     

城市综合功能GIS及应用研究

介绍了城市综合功能GIS组成及其在城市基础设施管理、交通管理、社会经济和商业管理以及政府管理部门等方面的应用。     

GPS多路径效应影响与结构振动的小波滤波筛分研究

当应用GPS技术进行大型工程结构监测时，由于其测定的是监测点的绝对位移，且受到诸多因素的影响，其中多路径效应和温度变化是主要影响源，要想正确分析结构的动力特性，首先必须有效地分离结构振动与各类影响项。本文采用小波分析法，对坐标序列进行多尺度分解，有效地筛分出结构微小振动和各类影响项。通过实际测试数据分析，取得了极其满意的效果。