基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

北京市采暖期可吸入颗粒物时空分布特征及源追踪

可吸入颗粒物是北京市大气主要污染物之一,春秋两季的沙尘天气除部分是由于受到区域气流的影响外,多数情况下是原地污染造成,尤其是冬季采暖期。本文通过遥感技术和地面监测结合的方法,研究采暖期北京市近地面不同粒径可吸入颗粒物时空分布规律及其与影响因素间的相互关系。应用高分辨率遥感影像分析下垫面的变化,应用地面观测仪器收集不同粒径颗粒物的含量,并分析颗粒物的化学组成;应用地理信息系统的空间分析技术,研究颗粒物的分布与下垫面的关系。研究表明,可吸入颗粒物污染分布和下垫面介质、人为污染源、人口密度、气象因素有非常密切的关系。     

1—3月北极涛动对北半球热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动的可能影响

利用1979—2008年日分辨率的向外长波辐射资料以及NCEP再分析资料,去除ENSO影响后,分析了1—3月北极涛动对热带太平洋和热带大西洋对流活动及降水的可能影响。结果表明北极涛动偏强(弱)时,热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动显著偏强(弱)。北半球热带大洋冬季平均向外长波辐射与北极涛动指数的相关系数存在两个显著负相关区:一个位于中太平洋区,大致包括13°—20°N、160°E—170°W;另外一个位于热带大西洋,显著区覆盖的范围大体包括5°—20°N、15°—70°W。这些区域的降水量也表现出显著的正相关。向外长波辐射、强对流面积指数、强对流强度指数、平均降水量等指标与北极涛动指数的相关均以冬季同期最高,随时间滞后相关迅速减弱。与此对应的对流层低层大气环流也有显著变化,850hPa风场的变化表现为热带太平洋有异常的气旋性环流,气旋中心区与显著强对流和降水异常区一致。而热带大西洋有显著的经向环流辐合和风切变,与异常对流和降水区吻合。海洋模式的模拟结果表明,与北极涛动有关联的海温分布,很大程度上与大气强迫有关,说明热带1—3月降水和对流活动与海温的关联较弱。北极涛动与热带太平洋、大西洋对流和降水活动之间主要是通过大气环流的变动产生联系的。     

A Simulation Study on the Extreme Temperature Events of the 20th Century by Using the BCC_AGCM

Extreme temperature events are simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC AGCM) in this paper. The model has been run for 136 yr with the observed external forcing data including solar insolation, greenhouse gases, and monthly sea surface temperature (SST). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are simulated by the model, and 16 indices representing various extreme temperature events are calculated based on these two variables. The results show that the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXX), maximum of daily minimum (TNX), minimum of daily maximum (TXN), minimum of daily minimum (TNN), warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) have increasing trends during the 20th century in most regions of the world, while the cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold spell duration index (CSDI) have decreasing trends. The probability density function (PDF) of warm/cold days/nights for three periods of 1881-1950, 1951- 1978, and 1979-2003 is examined. It is found that before 1950, the cold day/night has the largest probability, while for the period of 1979-2003, it has the smallest probability. In contrast to the decreasing trend of cold days/nights, the PDF of warm days/nights exhibits an opposite trend. In addition, the frost days (FD) and ice days (ID) have decreasing trends, the growing season has lengthened, and the diurnal temperature range is getting smaller during the 20th century. A comparison of the above extreme temperature indices between the model output and NCEP data (taken as observation) for 1948-2000 indicates that the mean values and the trends of the simulated indices are close to the observations, and overall there is a high correlation between the simulated indices and the observations. But the simulated trends of FD, ID, growing season length, and diurnal temperature range are not consistent with the observations and their correlations are low or even negative. This indicates that the model is incapable to simulate these four indices although it has captured most indices of the extreme temperature events.     

Precipitation variability during the past 400?years in the Xiaolong Mountain (central China) inferred from tree rings

We developed the first tree-ring chronology, based on 73 cores from 29 Pinus tabulaeformis trees, for the Xiaolong Mountain area of central China, a region at the boundary of the Asian summer monsoon. This chronology exhibits significant (at 0.01 level) positive correlations with precipitation in May and June, and negative correlations with temperature in May, June and July. Highest linear correlation is observed between tree growth and the seasonalized (April–July) precipitation, suggesting that tree rings tend to integrate the monthly precipitation signals. Accordingly, the April–July total precipitation was reconstructed back to 1629 using these tree rings, explaining 44.7?% of the instrumental variance. A severe drought occurred in the area during the 1630s–1640s, which may be related to the weakened Asian summer monsoon caused by a low land-sea thermal gradient. The dry epoch during the 1920s–1930s and since the late 1970s may be explained by the strengthened Hadley circulation in a warmer climate. The dry (wet) epochs of the 1920s–1930s (the 1750s and 1950s) occurred during the warm (cold) phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that are often associated with weakened (strengthened) East Asian summer monsoon. These relationships indicate significant teleconnections operating over the past centuries in central China related to large-scale synoptic features.     

2011年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因

2011年,全球气温偏高,为有观测记录以来的第十个暖年,是近60年来出现拉尼娜事件的年份中全球气温最高的一年。2011年,全球热带气旋活动较常年偏少。4月,一次拉尼娜事件结束,9月又一次拉尼娜事件生成。年初,低温、寒流席卷亚洲大部,暴风雪频繁袭击北美地区。西欧和中国东部出现严重春旱。夏季,非洲东部经历了20世纪80年代以来最严重的干旱,而东南亚、巴基斯坦和中南美洲洪涝灾害严重。全球极端偏暖事件主要出现在欧洲西部和西北部、南亚南部、东亚中西部、北美东南部等地;极端偏冷事件主要出现在东亚、澳大利亚、非洲南部和美国东北部和西部等地。而南美中东部、东南亚及中国东南部、日本、澳大利亚北部、非洲西部等地出现了极端强降水事件。研究发现,2010／2011年拉尼娜事件和台风活动是导致东南亚洪涝出现的重要原因,而巴基斯坦洪涝主要与印度洋正位相偶极型海温分布有关。     

永久散射体干涉测量技术在首都机场的应用

采用永久散射体干涉测量技术,结合2003—2009年间28幅Enviast卫星的ASAR影像,分两次监测首都机场地面沉降情况。试验结果表明,首都机场及其附近区域存在着地表形变。在监测的时间区间内,T1、T2航站楼有下降趋势,年均形变量约为10 mm;T3航站楼有上升趋势,且呈现出不均匀状态。     

开放式空间基础信息平台的发展特征与技术内涵

基于测绘和地理信息产业发展背景,针对日益增长的数据融合、实时共享、深度处理和个性化的需求,对数字城市中测绘服务特征进行分析,重点介绍符合云计算模型的开放式计算环境、多路径数据更新、多源数据一体化集成、全尺度城市编码、自适应空间数据处理和动态在线制图等理论、方法与关键技术。在此基础上,研制开发了开放式空间基础信息平台,并成功应用于数字深圳的建设中。     

云计算及其在地理信息工程中的应用

云计算是网格计算及分布式计算、并行计算发展到一定阶段后衍生出来的,是这些计算方法的商业实现。云计算是一种新型的计算模型,其基础体系结构属于云计算的技术层次,主要说明系统属性和设计思想;云计算的服务集合源于服务类型,说明能带给客户什么。云计算的核心技术有数据存储技术、数据管理技术、编程模型和云安全。云计算在地理信息工程和地理空间信息网格计算中有着广泛的应用前景。     

遥感解译在南京市生活垃圾填埋场识别中的应用

运用遥感技术对南京市航空影像进行了解译工作,提取了面积大于10 000 m2的垃圾场位置并进行了实地查证和分析比对,绘制出南京市垃圾填埋场分布图,为南京市垃圾场的适宜性评价工作奠定了基础。