Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8

—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.     

Influence of focal mechanism on shape of isoseismals: Irpinia earthquake of November 23, 1980

With the use of complete synthetic seismograms for the SH component of motion we have constructed theoretical isoseismals. We have assumed a double-couple point source as determined from first arrivals of P waves. Lateral heterogeneities around the source were also considered. In fact, the crustal part of the model used to compute synthetic seismograms to the west of the Bradano foretrough was significantly different from the one used to synthesize seismograms to the east of the foretrough. Even with such a simple approach, the comparison between theoretical and experimental data is surprisingly good, indicating that the isoseismals' elongation, parallel to the Apennines, depends mainly upon the fault orientation, while the effect of local structures introduces relatively small perturbations in the radiation pattern.Publication n. 198 Istituto di Geodesia e Geofisica-Trieste.     

Testing new sources of topographic data for flood propagation modelling under structural,parameter and observation uncertainty

ABSTRACT

This study assessed the utility of EUDEM, a recently released digital elevation model, to support flood inundation modelling. To this end, a comparison with other topographic data sources was performed (i.e. LIDAR, light detection and ranging; SRTM, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) on a 98-km reach of the River Po, between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy). This comparison was implemented using different model structures while explicitly accounting for uncertainty in model parameters and upstream boundary conditions. This approach facilitated a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty associated with hydraulic modelling of floods. For this test site, our results showed that the flood inundation models built on coarse resolutions data (EUDEM and SRTM) and simple one-dimensional model structure performed well during model evaluation.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Delineation of the geometry of nodes in the Alps–Dinarides hinge zone and recognition of seismogenic nodes (M ≥ 6)

We introduce a new method based on the analysis of the topographical alignments and used to delineate the structural boundaries of the nodes, which permits the definition of relatively narrow earthquake-prone areas by the pattern recognition approach. The structurally bounded nodes capable of earthquakes with M  ≥ 6.0, identified with pattern recognition, in fact, cover a significantly smaller area of the study region as compared with that defined by Gorshkov et al. (2004) who used conventional circles. The proposed method thus improves the precision in the location of potential large earthquakes.     

Site-Specific Modeling of SH and P-SV Waves for Microzonation Study of Kolkata Metropolitan City, India

Kolkata, one of the oldest cities of India, is situated over the thick alluvium of the Bengal Basin, where it lies at the boundary of the zone III and zone IV of the seismic zonation map of India. An example of the study of site effects of the metropolitan Kolkata is presented based on theoretical modeling. Full synthetic strong motion waveforms have been computed using a hybrid method that combines the modal summation and finite difference techniques. The 1964 Calcutta earthquake, which was located at the southern part of Kolkata, is taken as the source region, with the focal mechanism parameters of dip?=?32°, strike?=?232° and rake?=?56°. Four profiles are considered for the computation of the synthetic seismograms from which the maximum ground acceleration (A _MAX) is obtained. Response spectra ratios (RSR) are then computed using a bedrock reference model to estimate local amplifications effects. The A _MAX varies from 0.05 to 0.17?g and the comparison of the A _MAX with the different intensity scales (MM, MSK, RF and MCS) shows that the expected intensity is in the range from VII to X (MCS) for an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 at an epicentral distance of about 100?km. This theoretical result matches with the empirical (historical and recent) intensity observations in Kolkata. The RSR, as a function of frequency, reaches the largest values (largest amplification) in the frequency range from 1.0 to 2.0?Hz. The largest site amplification is observed at the top of loose soil.     

Size and duration of the high-frequency radiator in the source of the 2004 December 26 Sumatra earthquake

We recover the gross space–time characteristics of high-frequency (HF) radiator of the great Sumatra-Andaman islands earthquake of 2004 December 26 ( M _w= 9.1–9.3) using the time histories of the power of radiated HF P waves. To determine these time histories we process teleseismic P waves at 36 BB stations, using, in sequence: (1) bandpass filtering (four bands: 0.4–1.2, 1.2–2, 2–3 and 3–4 Hz); (2) squaring wave amplitudes, making 'power signals' for each band and (3) stripping the propagation-related distortion ( P coda, etc.) from the power signal and thus recovering source time function for HF power. In step (3) we employ an inverse filter constructed from an empirical Green's function, which is estimated as the power signal from an aftershock. For each ray we thus obtain signals with relatively well-defined end and no coda. From these signals we extract: total duration (joint estimate for all four bands) and temporal centroid of signal power for each band. Through linear inversion, the set of duration values for a set of rays delivers estimates of the rupture stopping point and stopping time. Similarly, the set of temporal centroids can be inverted to obtain the position of the space–time centroid of HF energy radiator. The quality of inversion for centroid is acceptable for lower-frequency bands but deteriorates for higher-frequency bands where only a fraction of stations provide useful data. For the source length and duration the following joint estimates were obtained: 1241 ± 224 km, 550 ± 10 s. The estimated stopping point position corresponds to the northern extremity of the aftershock zone. Spatial HF radiation centroids are located at distances 350–700 km from the epicentre, in a systematic way: the higher is the frequency, the farther is the centroid from the epicentre. Average rupture propagation velocity is estimated as 2.25 km s^–1.     

Timely Low Resolution SAR Imagery To Support Floodplain Modelling: a Case Study Review

It is widely recognised that remote sensing can support flood monitoring, modelling and management. In particular, satellites carrying Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are valuable as radar wavelengths can penetrate cloud cover and are insensitive to daylight. However, given the strong inverse relationship between spatial resolution and revisit time, monitoring floods from space in near real time is currently only possible through low resolution (about 100 m pixel size) SAR imagery. For instance, ENVISAT-ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) in WSM (wide swath mode) revisit times are of the order of 3 days and the data can be obtained within 24 h at no (or low) cost. Hence, this type of space-borne data can be used for monitoring major floods on medium-to-large rivers. This paper aims to discuss the potential for, and uncertainties of, coarse resolution SAR imagery to monitor floods and support hydraulic modelling. The paper first describes the potential of globally and freely available space-borne data to support flood inundation modelling in near real time. Then, the uncertainty of SAR-derived flood extent maps is discussed and the need to move from deterministic binary maps (wet/dry) of flood extent to uncertain flood inundation maps is highlighted.     

A Multiscale Application of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean Area and Alpine Region

We study the parameters A, B, and C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE) in the Central Mediterranean area and Alpine region on the basis of a variable space and time scale approach. We make use of regional and local earthquake catalogues. Accordingly, we investigate three different scales: the scale of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region spanning different geological domains, the scale of the Alps focusing on a single geological entity, and the scale of an active fault system at the junction between the southeastern Alps and the external Dinarides in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia. Maps based on the varied time and location scales are compared with each other. The observed temporal variability of the A, B, C coefficients indicates significant changes of seismic activity at the time scales of a few decades. Therefore, it is highly recommended to use all the data available for long-term seismic hazard assessment in conjunction with a real-time monitoring of these characteristics for possible evaluation of time-dependent risk at the intermediate-term scales of a few years. The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space implies that the traditional estimations of seismic hazard for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. The degree of underestimation by traditional methods of seismic risk at a city is illustrated by providing estimates of hazard and related personal hazard, which are oversimplified examples of seismic risk assessment accounting for fractal properties of earthquakes in the major cities of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region.