Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

华北地区地震地面危害分布的定量估算

根据1500年以来的地震活动,用确定性方法对华北地区地震地面危害分布图进行了定量计算。震源和研究区域均用网格单元表示,网格点的间距取为0.2°。计算中主要的输入参量为该地区的地震目录、震源机制、地震活动水平、深部结构模型等。各个单元上模拟的理论地震图考虑到了来自不同地点的震源和传播路径的影响。计算获得了华北地区最大地面运动和设计地面加速度(DGA)的分布图。最大DGA值位于北京以东,达0.75g。该结果可对未来华北地区地震危害的分布特征研究和该地区的防震减灾工作提供依据     

Sequence stratigraphy based on high-resolution seismic profiles in the late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits of the Venice area

The sequence-stratigraphic investigation by Very High-Resolution (VHR) seismic profiles allowed recognition of the detailed architecture of the late Pleistocene and Holocene succession of the Venice area. In this way deposits previously known by the analyses of scattered cores, mainly taken along the lagoon margin and the littoral strips, have been correlated at regional scale including the near offshore sector and the result has pointed out the lateral variability of the stratal architecture. Late Pleistocene deposits consist of an aggrading floodplain and fluvial channel fills accumulated during decreasing eustatic sea level, and they are coeval with offlapping forced regressive marine wedges in the Central Adriatic basin. The Holocene sequence is composed of three main seismic units separated by major stratal surfaces. Unit 1 (up to 9 m thick) is formed by channelized deposits separated by areas showing sub-horizontal and hummocky reflectors, and is bounded at the base by a surface that records prolonged conditions of subaerial exposure and at the top by a flatter surface resulting from erosion by marine processes. Deposits of Unit 1 are interpreted as estuarine and distributary channel fills, and back-barrier strata. Unit 2 is well distinguishable from Unit 1 only in the offshore area and at the barrier island bounding the Venice Lagoon, and is composed of a prograding marine wedge (up to 10 m thick) that interacts laterally with ebb tidal deltas. Unit 3 consists of a tidal channel complex and inlet deposits, which testify the evolution of the lagoon area. Tidal channels are entrenched in the lagoon mud flat (coeval with Units 1–2) and cut the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary in several places.Following current sequence-stratigraphic concepts, the Holocene sequence is composed of a paralic transgressive systems tract (TST) (Unit 1) overlying a sequence boundary (the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary) and overlain by a marine highstand systems tract (HST) (Unit 2) in seaward locations and by highstand lagoonal deposits landwards. TST and HST are separated by a downlap surface that is amalgamated with a wave ravinement surface in several places. Unit 3 is coeval with the upper part of Unit 2, and its development has been favoured by human interventions, which led to a transgression limited to the lagoon area.Local factors during the deposition, i.e. subsidence, sediment supply, physiography, and current/wave regimes, led to a significant lateral variability in the architecture of the Holocene sequence, as evidenced by the extreme thickness variation of the TST along both depositional strike and dip. The HST, instead, shows less pronounced strike variations in the stratal architecture. Also, present data clearly evidence that the human impact has a great relevance in influencing the late Holocene sedimentation.     

An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.     

A review of low‐cost space‐borne data for flood modelling: topography,flood extent and water level

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hot/Cold Spots in Italian Macroseismic Data

Site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an attempt to see in the macroseismic data of Italy some other effects, namely, hot/cold spots in the terminology of Olsen (in Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 6B, 577?C594, 2000), which are related to local fault geometry rather than to soil conditions. We give a list of towns and villages liable to amplify (+) or to reduce (?C) the level of shaking in comparison with the nearby settlements. Relief and soil conditions cannot always account for the anomalous sites. Further, there are sites where both (+) and (?C) effects are observed depending on the earthquake. The opposite effects can be generated by events from the same seismotectonic zone and along the same direction to the site. Anomalous sites may group themselves into clusters of different scales. All isolated anomalous patterns presented in this paper can be used in hazard analysis, in particular, for the modeling and testing of seismic effects.     

Three-Dimensional Seismic Wave Propagation by Modal Summation: Method and Validation

It is an acquired result that, in order to enable realistic earthquake hazard assessment and reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered. In this paper we present a new analytical procedure for determining the seismic wavefield in a 3D anelastic model based on the combination of the ray theory with the modal summation method. The proposed procedure has been validated by considering the three-dimensional model of the Kanto basin (Japan) available in the literature. Three-dimensional simulations were performed for the 1990 Odawara earthquake. The results obtained were compared both with recorded signals and with simulations available in the literature for several stations located within the Kanto basin. Besides the advantage of being a useful tool for assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction, it is characterized by high efficiency, in fact, once the study region is identified and the 3D model is constructed, the computation, at each station, of the three components of the synthetic signal (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) takes less than 3?h on a 2?GHz CPU.     

Crust and upper mantle models along the active Tyrrhenian rim

The volcanic complexes from the Eolian islands to the Campania/Roman regions and Tuscany further north, rest on lithospheric sectors which overlie the Adriatic continental lithosphere sinking along the Apennine-Maghrebian orogenic belt. Evidence for this stems from the melting, at mantle depth, of upper crustal materials as indicated by the widespread interaction of S-type and K-alkaline melts. The genesis of atypical magmas of the Roman Province (central-southern Italy) appears to be the result of an important block faulting and deep lithospheric rifting of the Apennine continental margin lying parallel to and above relic sinking slabs. Intermediate and deep-focus earthquakes indicate that the lithospheric slab is still seismically active under the Eolian-Calabrian area and, sporadically, at the southern end of Campania. On the other hand, in the Roman/Tuscan region, it seems to be almost inactive, few earthquakes having been located with hypocentral depths not exceeding 150 km. The analysis of the spectral content of seismic sources supports the existence of two distinct zones of lithospheric shortening in correspondence of Tuscany and South Tyrrhenian sea, which are separated by a tensional region, which extends from Latium to Calabria. The existence of distinct lithospheric slabs along the Tyrrhenian rim is supported by surface wave dispersion and scattering measurements as well as P-wave residuals, and is confirmed by the trend of long-wavelength gravity anomalies. Bidimensional gravity models along transects in the Tyrrhenian sea and italian peninsula interpreted within the geometrical constraints imposed by the results of the interpretation of aeromagnetic, seismic and seismological data have been used to delimit the spatial distribution of the density contrasts in the upper mantle which might be due to the existence of the above-mentioned lithospheric slabs.