Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variations of albedo on nine glaciers in western China from 2000 to 2011

This research demonstrates the spatiotemporal variations of albedo on nine glaciers in western China during 2000–2011, by the albedo derived from two types of datasets: Landsat TM/ETM + images and MOD10A1 product. Then, the influence factors of glacier albedo and its relationship with glacier mass balance are also analyzed by the correlation approach, which is frequently used in geostatistics. The paper finds that there are different spatiotemporal variations over the glaciers in western China: (1) For a single glacier, the albedo varies gently with altitude on its tongue and increases fast in the middle part, while in the accumulation zones, the albedo value appears in the form of fluctuation. This could provide a quantitative method to retrieve the snowline by determining the threshold albedo value of snowpack and bare ice. (2) For the glaciers in western China, the albedo decreases with distance to the center of Tibetan Plateau (TP). This may relate to the elevation of glacier, for the speed of glacier retreat highly depends on air temperature. (3) In the summer period, albedo on most glaciers declines over the last 12 years, and it decreases much faster in southeastern TP than other regions, for which air temperature overwhelms the black carbon concentration. In addition, the trend of glacier albedo in summer is greatly correlated with that of measured glacier mass balance, which implies that the long‐term albedo datasets by remote sensing technology could be used to monitor and predict the change of glacier mass balance in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variation of soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland during the growth stages of maize (Zea mays L.)

Maize growth has great effects on soil properties and thus likely induces the changes in soil erosion resistance on sloping farmland. However, temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize is still unclear in the mountainous yellow soil area where maize is the dominant crop. In this study, four maize plots (MP) and four bare land plots (CK) were conducted to investigate soil erosion resistance, and multiple indicators of soil erosion resistance were measured including the total soil anti-scourability (TAS), mean weight diameter (MWD), soil erodibility K factor and soil shear strength (SH). A comprehensive soil erosion resistance index (CSERI) was employed to quantify the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance during the growth stages of maize (seedling stage, SS; jointing stage, JS; tasselling stage, TS; maturing stage, MS). The results showed that TAS, MWD, SH increased significantly with maize growth and SH decreased when at MS. But K factor decreased significantly over time. CSERI increased significantly during the growth stages of maize and the CSERI of JS, TS, MS increased on average by 74.72, 180.68 and 234.57% than that of SS. Compared to CK, CSERI of MP increased by 49.90, 66.82, 55.60 and 38.61% during the growth stages of maize. The temporal variation of soil erosion resistance was closely related to the changes in maize cover, maize roots and soil organic carbon. The findings demonstrated that it is necessary to consider the temporal variation of soil erosion resistance in the mountainous yellow soil area.     

基于等高线隔断线确定DEM适宜分辨率的方法研究

分辨率是等高线数据插值生成格网DEM数据过程中需要考虑的一个重要参数,适宜的分辨率既能将等高线高程信息尽可能保留,又不会因插值造成数据冗余及误差。基于对格网DEM生成方式的理解,提出了等高线隔断线的相关概念,分析了基于地形图矢量化的等高线数据插值生成格网DEM数据,由不同长度等高线隔断线频率统计来确定格网适宜分辨率参考值的方法。同时,不同长度等高线隔断线的长度与其频率相乘得到标准长度,以及等高线隔断线中心点生成的密度分析图,均可在频率特征决定适宜分辨率参考值时起到一定的参考作用。通过样区实验验证,实现简便,可度量性强,与其他相关研究具有一致性,对确定适宜格网分辨率参考值具有一定的借鉴意义。     

塔里木盆地西南凹陷古新统巨厚海相石膏岩沉积特征及环境意义

塔里木盆地(简称塔,下同)西南凹陷古新世阿尔塔什组发育巨厚层海相石膏岩,夹薄层泥岩、粉砂岩及灰岩,是塔西南凹陷断续海侵环境下多期次蒸发沉积的产物。野外调查显示,该层海相石膏岩出现于皮拉里、阿尔塔什、麻扎塔格及大山口地区的阿尔塔什组露头剖面。石膏岩在凹陷内分布广泛,在西昆仑山前、南天山山前及麦盖提斜坡带均有发育且沉积厚度比较稳定。石膏岩中主要盐类矿物为石膏、硬石膏。扫描电镜分析发现,石膏岩中尚含石盐、钙芒硝及含钾镁的硫酸盐等;石膏岩样品中石盐、石膏、硬石膏等多呈细晶或自形微晶,推测阿尔塔什组沉积期,古盐湖曾出现过富钾卤水;通过对皮拉里剖面石膏岩样品进行地球化学分析,揭示该地区古新世古盐湖演化过程中出现2个相对富钾峰值。在古盐湖演化过程中,由于多期次特提斯海水的侵入,凹陷内部阿尔塔时期发育了碎屑岩—巨厚层石膏岩—碎屑岩的沉积韵律,古盐湖卤水表现为淡—咸—淡的变化规律。伴随着阿尔塔时期4次大规模的海侵,石膏岩沉积从西昆仑山前扩展到麦盖提斜坡地带,海侵范围也逐渐扩大。在阿尔塔什组顶部发育中厚层灰岩,显示在阿尔塔什组沉积晚期,塔西南凹陷沉积环境从●湖相逐渐向浅海相环境演变。     

无内标-多外标校正激光剥蚀等离子体质谱法测定磁铁矿微量元素组成

激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱(LA-ICP-MS)常用于磁铁矿原位微量元素分析,按照校正策略不同,主要分为内标法和无内标法。内标法需要用电子探针(EMPA)预先测定磁铁矿中内标元素Fe的含量,过程较繁琐,且待测元素含量会受到内标元素含量测定的影响。本文采用铁含量较高的玄武质玻璃BCR-2G、BIR-1G、BHVO-2G和GSE-1G作为外标,避免了内标元素含量的测定,建立了无内标-多外标校正LA-ICP-MS测定磁铁矿微量元素组成的分析方法。利用该方法测定了科马提岩玻璃GOR-128g和自然岩浆磁铁矿BC 28的微量元素组成以评估方法的可靠性。结果表明,科马提岩玻璃的测定结果与推荐值及前人内标法的测定值一致,多数元素的相对标准偏差RSD5%;自然岩浆磁铁矿的测定结果与推荐值相比,多数元素的RSD7%,低于前人内标法的RSD(15%)。由此说明无内标-多外标法可以实现富铁硅酸岩或磁铁矿微量元素含量的准确校正,克服了基体效应的影响。因此,无内标-多外标法是一种原位测定磁铁矿微量元素含量的快速、准确方法,具有一定的应用潜力。