Carbon balance in a salt marsh: Interactions of diffusive export, tidal deposition and rainfall-caused erosion

Studies of the concentrations of particulate and dissolved organic carbon in the Duplin River, of the tidal exchange of POC and DOC in the marsh, of the standing stock and movement of Spartina alterniflora wrack in the Duplin, and of the removal of carbon from the surface of the marsh by rain were conducted at Sapelo Island, Georgia in order to test three hypotheses about export of carbon from the Duplin River watershed. We found that the gradients in POC and DOC concentrations are such that carbon is being transported down the Duplin River throughout the year, although in smaller quantities than previously believed. In contrast, almost all tidal exchanges within the marsh result in deposition of carbon. Most of this deposited carbon is subsequently eroded as a result of rain falling on the exposed marsh surface, and is washed back into the tidal creeks. This cycle of deposition and erosion is a possible mechanism keeping POC in the thin aerobic surface layer of the marsh, thus increasing its availability to detritivores and aerobic microbes. The standing stock of wrack is only a fraction of the S. alterniflora produced each year, and its export is a negligible term in the carbon balance equation.     

Simultaneous optical polarimetry and X-ray observations of the magnetic CV CP Tuc (AX J2315−592)

CP Tuc (AX J2315–592) shows a dip in X-rays which lasts for approximately half the binary orbit and is deeper in soft X-rays compared with hard X-rays. It has been proposed that this dip is due to the accretion stream obscuring the accretion region from view. If CP Tuc were a polar, as has been suggested, then the length of such a dip would make it unique amongst polars since in those polars in which a dip is seen in hard X-rays the dip lasts for only 0.1 of the orbit. We present optical polarimetry and RXTE observations of CP Tuc which show circular polarization levels of ∼10 per cent and find evidence for only one photometric period. These data confirm CP Tuc as a polar. Our modelling of the polarization data implies that the X-ray dip is due to the bulk of the primary accretion region being self-eclipsed by the white dwarf. The energy dependence of the dip is due to a combination of this self-eclipse and also the presence of an X-ray temperature gradient over the primary accretion region.     

Diver-operated piston corer for nearshore use

A diver-operated piston corer suitable for collecting cores of >3 m length from fine-grained nearshore sediment has been developed. The corer uses a platform that rests on the sediment surface supporting both the operators and a derrick that maintains the piston at the sediment-water interface. The core is insected into and recovered from the sediment manually. The technique offers several advantages; low cost, minimal disruption of the sediment-water interface, little compaction of the sediment, the ability to collect longer length cores than is possible with gravity corers, and the ability to be deployed from relatively small boats. Dissolved ammonium and inorganic carbon data are presented from a 3.3-m core collected by this technique from Tomales Bay, California.     

Fire and vegetation change during the Early Pleistocene in southeastern Australia

Early Pleistocene vegetation in upland southeastern Australia included diverse rainforests and sclerophyll forests, which alternated on precessional timescales. The nature and timing of transitions between these biomes, and the role of fire in maintaining or driving transitions between them, are uncertain. Here we present a high‐resolution pollen record from Stony Creek Basin, a small Early Pleistocene palaeolake in southeastern Australia. The pollen record documents a pattern of vegetation change, over ca. 10 ka at ca. 1590–1600 ka, between sclerophyll forests, dominated by Eucalyptus, Callitris (Cupressaceae) or Casuarinaceae, and rainforests dominated by either angiosperms or conifers of the family Podocarpaceae. Transitions between these biomes typically occurred within ca. 1–2 ka. The associated charcoal record suggests that greatest biomass combustion occurred when local vegetation was dominated by Eucalyptus, and the least biomass combustion occurred when local vegetation was dominated by Podocarpaceae. However, local fires burnt in both sclerophyll and angiosperm‐dominated rainforest vegetation, at least once every several centuries. Fire was very rare (less than about one fire per millennium) only when the local vegetation was rainforest dominated by Podocarpaceae. This suggests that fire was an irregular presence in both sclerophyll‐ and angiosperm‐dominated rainforest biomes during the late Neogene, though was largely absent in Podocarpaceae‐dominated rainforests. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.