Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.     

Fuzzy expert system for economic zonation of an ornamental slate deposit

Investigation of deposits for traditional extraction activities (metals and coal) has generally been based on determining grade, or content, of the required material. In order to apply the grade concept to an ornamental rock such as slate, it is first necessary to define the variables that determine both the geotechnical recovery rate for the rock mass — which conditions the size of the extracted blocks – and the aesthetic features of the slate — which define the quality of the slabs as potential roofing material.

For this research, geotechnical and aesthetic data for a slate deposit were collected from 16 continuous core borehole samples. A fuzzy expert system was then developed using this data, defining the rock mass recovery rate and slab quality in accordance with the criteria of a slate expert, producing as a final output a zonation of the deposit in terms of top quality slate, medium quality slate or waste.

A mathematical model based on fuzzy logic was chosen due to the fact that the boundaries between different quality groups in a deposit are not clearly distinguished. Moreover, quality also depends on a company's infrastructures for transformation of the blocks, and also on its commercial strategies.     

2D Self-Potential tomographies for studying groundwater flows in the Varco d''Izzo landslide (Basilicata, southern Italy)

A geoelectrical monitoring activity has been carried out to improve the geological and hydrogeological knowledge about the Varco d'Izzo landslide (Potenza, Basilicata, Southern Apennine, Italy), an active rotational–translational slide evolved in earth-flow. In this work we have focused on the Self-Potential (SP) method by applying three different SP measuring techniques and combining modern technologies for data acquisition and new methods for tomographic inversion. A SP map and three static SP tomographies have been carried out to better analyse the groundwater circulation system and to better reconstruct the geometry of the landslide body. In the accumulation zone, which is the area more exposed to the geomorphological activity, a new SP measuring strategy has been applied. This strategy, based on time-continuous 2D SP tomographies, helps identify water flow changes in subsurface by studying the time series of SP tomographic images. The analysis of time-dependent changes of water infiltration in near surface is the key to better understand the hydrogeological processes underlying the ground instability phenomena. The time-lapse analysis of tomographic images has allowed us not only to investigate the correlation between the temporal changes of SP signals and rainfall events, but also to quantify the range of these changes. The modification of the distribution of the SP source accumulation zones is associated with the dynamics of the groundwater flows. These preliminary results allow us to consider the SP tomographic method as a tool for geophysical monitoring of landslide areas and encourage to develop new measuring systems for near-real time applications.     

Preservation/exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure subduction complexes

Ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terranes reflect subduction of continental crust to depths of 90–140 km in Phanerozoic contractional orogens. Rocks are intensely overprinted by lower pressure mineral assemblages; traces of relict UHP phases are preserved only under kinetically inhibiting circumstances. Most UHP complexes present in the upper crust are thin, imbricate sheets consisting chiefly of felsic units ± serpentinites; dense mafic and peridotitic rocks make up less than  10% of each exhumed subduction complex. Roundtrip prograde–retrograde P–T paths are completed in 10–20 Myr, and rates of ascent to mid-crustal levels approximate descent velocities. Late-stage domical uplifts typify many UHP complexes.

Sialic crust may be deeply subducted, reflecting profound underflow of an oceanic plate prior to collisional suturing. Exhumation involves decompression through the P–T stability fields of lower pressure metamorphic facies. Scattered UHP relics are retained in strong, refractory, watertight host minerals (e.g., zircon, pyroxene, garnet) typified by low rates of intracrystalline diffusion. Isolation of such inclusions from the recrystallizing rock matrix impedes back reaction. Thin-aspect ratio, ductile-deformed nappes are formed in the subduction zone; heat is conducted away from UHP complexes as they rise along the subduction channel. The low aggregate density of continental crust is much less than that of the mantle it displaces during underflow; its rapid ascent to mid-crustal levels is driven by buoyancy. Return to shallow levels does not require removal of the overlying mantle wedge. Late-stage underplating, structural contraction, tectonic aneurysms and/or plate shallowing convey mid-crustal UHP décollements surfaceward in domical uplifts where they are exposed by erosion. Unless these situations are mutually satisfied, UHP complexes are completely transformed to low-pressure assemblages, obliterating all evidence of profound subduction.     

Heavy metals in freshly deposited sediments of the river Subernarekha, India: an example of lithogenic and anthropogenic effects

Heavy metal distribution patterns in river sediments aid in understanding the exogenic cycling of elements as well as in assessing the effect of anthropogenic influences. In India, the Subernarekha river flows over the Precambrian terrain of the Singhbhum craton in eastern India. The rocks are of an iron ore series and the primary rock types are schist and quartzite. One main tributary, the Kharkhai, flows through granite rocks and subsequently flows through the schist and quartzite layers. The Subernarekha flows through the East Singhbhum district, which is one of India’s industrialised areas known for ore mining, steel production, power generation, cement production and other related activities. Freshly deposited river sediments were collected upstream and downstream the industrial zone. Samples were collected from four locations and analysed in <63-μm sediment fraction for heavy metals including Zn, Pb, Cd and Cu by anodic stripping voltammetry. Enrichment of these elements over and above the local natural concentration level has been calculated and reported. Sediments of the present study are classified by Muller’s geo-accumulation index (I _geo) and vary from element to element and with climatic seasons. During pre-monsoon period the maximum I _geo value for Zn is moderately to highly polluted and for Cu and Pb is moderately polluted, respectively, based on the Muller’s standard. Anthropogenic, lithogenic or cumulative effects of both components are the main reasons for such variations in I _geo values. The basic igneous rock layer through which the river flows or a seasonal rivulet that joins with the main river may be the primary source for lithogenic components.     

Formation of a protoplanetary system through the merging of binary components that are contracting towards the main sequence

We have carried out three-dimensional hydrodynamical modeling of the formation of planets through the merging of a binary system comprised of low-mass (～0.5–1 M_⊙) stars in the stage of contracting towards the main sequence. Under certain conditions, the disruption of the more massive component results in the formation of an expanding disk and extended arm. The fragmentation of this arm leads to the formation of planetary-mass clouds (<5 M _J where M _J is the mass of Jupiter), whose orbits can have semimajor axes of 0.4 to 5 AU and substantial (～0.5) eccentricities.     

Subsidence due to peat oxidation and impact on drainage infrastructures in a farmland catchment south of the Venice Lagoon

Large agricultural areas reclaimed in the past century, south of the Venice Lagoon, have experienced significant land subsidence due to oxidation of peat organic soils. This has exposed the region to flood hazard particularly during severe storms and has contributed to increase the marginal management cost of the infrastructures (ditches, levees, pumping stations) designed to operate the drainage system. Direct measurements and indirect evidence from the channel network suggest a land settlement between 1.5 and 2 m over the past 70 years. This paper provides an overview of the problem with important information on its most recent evolution.