A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

The Mars oxidant experiment (MOx) for Mars '96

The MOx instrument was developed to characterize the reactive nature of the martian soil. The objectives of MOx were: (1) to measure the rate of degradation of organics in the martian environment; (2) to determine if the reactions seen by the Viking biology experiments were caused by a soil oxidant and measure the reactivity of the soil and atmosphere: (3) to monitor the degradation, when exposed to the martian environment, of materials of potential use in future missions; and, finally, (4) to develop technologies and approaches that can be part of future soil analysis instrumentation. The basic approach taken in the MOx instrument was to place a variety of materials composed as thin films in contact with the soil and monitor the physical and chemical changes that result. The optical reflectance of the thin films was the primary sensing-mode. Thin films of organic materials, metals, and semiconductors were prepared. Laboratory simulations demonstrated the response of thin films to active oxidants.     

Geoeffectiveness and flare properties of radio-loud CMEs

A detailed investigation on geoeffective CMEs associated with meter to Deca-Hectometer (herein after m- and DH-type-II) wavelengths range type-II radio bursts observed during the period 1997–2005 is presented. The study consists of three steps: i) the characteristics of m-and DH-type-II bursts associated with flares and geoeffective CMEs; ii) characteristics of geo and non-geoeffective radio-loud and quiet CMEs, iii) the relationships between the geoeffective CMEs and flares properties. Interestingly, we found that 92 % of DH-type-II bursts are extension of m-type-II burst which are associated with faster and wider geoeffective DH-CMEs and also associated with longer/stronger flares. The geoeffective CME-associated m-type-II bursts have higher starting frequency, lower ending frequency and larger bandwidth compared to the general population of m-type-II bursts. The geoeffective CME-associated DH-type-II bursts have longer duration (P?1 %), lower ending frequency (P=2 %) and lower drift rates (P=2 %) than that of DH-type-IIs associated with non-geoeffective CMEs. The differences in mean speed of geoeffective DH-CMEs and non-geoeffective DH-CMEs (1327 km?s^?1 and 1191 km?s^?1, respectively) is statistically insignificant (P=20 %).However, the mean difference in width (339^° and 251^°, respectively) is high statistical significant (P=0.8 %). The geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs speeds (545 km?s^?1 and 450 km?s^?1, respectively) and widths (252^° and 60^°, respectively) is higher than the non geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs (P=3 % and P=0.02 %, respectively). The geoeffective CMEs associated flares have longer duration, and strong flares than non-geoeffective DH-CMEs associated flares (P=0.8 % and P=1 %, respectively). We have found a good correlation between the geo-effective flare and DH-CMEs properties: i) CMEs speed—acceleration (R=?0.78, where R is a linear correlation coefficient), ii) acceleration—flare peak flux (R=?0.73) and, iii) acceleration—Dst index intensity (R=0.75). The radio-rich CMEs (DH-CMEs) produced more energetic storm than the radio-quiet CMEs (general populations of LASCO CMEs). The above results indicate that the DH-type-II bursts tend to be related with flares and geoeffective CMEs, although there is no physical explanation for the result. If the DH-type-II burst is a continuation of m-type-II burst, it could be a good indicator of geoeffective storms, which has important implications for space weather studies.     

Study of Mars dynamics from lander tracking data analysis

After the touchdown of the two Viking landers on Mars, radio tracking measurements have been performed between them and Earth-based stations. With use of the first 9 months of data, we have improved the rotation rate and the mean orientation of the spin axis of Mars, referred to its mean orbit. For the first time, some nutations terms have also been estimated. Nevertheless the precise determination of the spin axis motion will require additional data collected during the extended mission. Our solution includes also the lander locations and the relativistic parameter .Paper presented at the European Workshop on Planetary Sciences, Organised by the Laboratorio di Astrofisica Spaziale di Frascati, and held between April 23–27, 1979, at the Accademia Nazionale del Lincei in Rome, Italy.     

Statistical analysis of the radon-222 potential of rocks in Virginia,U.S.A.

More than 3,200 indoor radon-222 (²²²Rn) measurements were made seasonally in an area of about 1,000 square kilometers of the Coastal Plain and Piedmont physiographic provinces in Virginia, U.S.A. Results of these measurements indicate that some geological units are associated, on the average, with twice as much indoor²²²Rn as other geological units, and that indoor²²²Rn varies seasonally. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to test whether indoor²²²Rn concentrations for data gathered over the winter and summer seasons differ significantly by rock unit. The tests concluded that indoor²²²Rn concentrations for different rock units were not equal at the 5-percent significance level. The rocks associated with the highest median indoor²²²Rn concentration are specific rocks in the Mesozoic Culpeper basin, including shale and siltstone units with Jurassic diabase intrusives, and mica schists in the Piedmont physiographic province. The pre-Triassic Peters Creek Schist has the highest ranking in terms of indoor²²²Rn concentration. The rocks associated with the lowest indoor²²²Rn concentrations include coastal plain sediments, the Occoquan Granite, Falls Church Tonalite, Piney Branch Mafic and Ultramafic complex, and unnamed mafic and ultramafic inclusions, respectively. The rocks have been ranked according to observed²²²Rn concentration by transforming the average rank of indoor²²²Rn concentrations to z scores.     

Helium isotopes in ferromanganese crusts from the central Pacific Ocean

Helium isotopes have been measured in samples of two ferromanganese crusts (VA13/2 and CD29-2) from the central Pacific Ocean. With the exception of the deepest part of crust CD29-2 the data can be explained by a mixture of implanted solar- and galactic cosmic ray-produced (GCR) He, in extraterrestrial grains, and radiogenic He in wind-borne continental dust grains. ⁴He concentrations are invariant and require retention of less than 12% of the in situ He produced since crust formation. Loss has occurred by recoil and diffusion. High ⁴He in CD29-2 samples older than 42 Ma are correlated with phosphatization and can be explained by retention of up to 12% of the in situ-produced ⁴He. ³He/⁴He of VA13/2 samples varies from 18.5 to 1852 R_a due almost entirely to variation in the extraterrestrial He contribution. The highest ³He/⁴He is comparable to the highest values measured in interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) and micrometeorites (MMs). Helium concentrations are orders of magnitude lower than in oceanic sediments reflecting the low trapping efficiency for in-falling terrestrial and extraterrestrial grains of Fe-Mn crusts. The extraterrestrial ³He concentration of the crusts rules out whole, undegassed 4-40 μm diameter IDPs as the host. Instead it requires that the extraterrestrial He inventory is carried by numerous particles with significantly lower He concentrations, and occasional high concentration GCR-He-bearing particles.     

Spatial dynamics of retail structure and the venerable retail hierarchy

The retail system is continuously adapting itself to changing demographic conditions, consumer behavior and economic conditions. Existing retail units, getting larger in order to achieve economics of scale, and new forms of large-scale retailing do not fit easily in the traditional spatial pattern of retail concentrations. Neverteless the spatial distribution of retailing in urban areas, as schematized by Berry thirty-five years ago, still has its value. Through an upward hierarchical movement the retail system has adapted itself to an inflexible spatial system, in which downtown has still a dominant position. Future developments, however, may weaken the position of central shopping areas in favour of peripheral locations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Suction-controlled experiments on Boom clay

The understanding of the thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of a clay barrier is needed for the prediction of its final in situ properties after the hydration and thermal transient in a radioactive waste repository.

As part of the CEC 1990–1994 R&D programme on radioactive waste management and storage, the CEA (Fr), CIEMAT (Sp), ENRESA (Sp), SCK · CEN (B), UPC (Sp) and UWCC (UK) have carried out a joint project on unsaturated clay behaviour (Volckaert et al., 1996). The aim of the study is to analyse and model the behaviour of a clay-based engineered barrier during its hydration phase under real repository conditions. The hydro-mechanical and thermo-hydraulic models developed in this project have been coupled to describe stress/strain behaviour, moisture migration and heat transfer. A thermo-hydraulic model has also been coupled to a geochemical code to describe the migration and formation of chemical species.

In this project, suction-controlled experiments have been performed on Boom clay (B), FoCa clay (Fr) and Almeria bentonite (Sp). The aim of these experiments is to test the validity of the interpretive model developed by Alonso and Gens (Alonso et al., 1990), and to build a database of unsaturated clay thermo-hydro-mechanical parameters. Such a database can then be used for validation exercises in which in situ experiments are simulated.

The Boom clay is a moderately swelling clay of Rupellian age. It is studied at the SCK · CEN in Belgium as a potential host rock for a radioactive waste repository. In this paper, suction-controlled experiments carried out on Boom clay by SCK · CEN are described. SCK · CEN has performed experiments to measure the relation between suction, water content and temperature and the relation between suction, stress and deformation. The applied suction-control techniques and experimental setups are detailed. The results of these experiments are discussed in the perspective of the model of Alonso and Gens. The influence of temperature on water uptake was rather small. The measured swelling-collapse behaviour can be explained by the Alonso and Gens model.     

The Late Cretaceous Impact of the Trindade Mantle Plume: Evidence from Large-volume, Mafic, Potassic Magmatism in SE Brazil

When the subcontinental lithospheric mantle undergoes heatingand/or extension, some of the earliest mafic melts to be generatedare those rich in volatUes and potassium. In some cases, e.g.when a plume impinges on thick cratonic lithosphere or whenthe amount of extension is very small, K-rich mafic igneousrocks may be the only surface expression of mantle melting.The Alto Paranaiba Igneous Province, in SE Brazil, is one ofthe world's most voluminous mafic potassic provinces (>15000km³),which until recently was relatively unknown. The magmas wereemplaced into a narrow Proterozoic mobile belt close to thesurface margin of the Sao Francisco craton, and it is one ofseveral Cretaceous alkaline igneous provinces that are locatedaround the margin of the Parana sedimentary basin in Braziland Paraguay.Detailed geochemical analyses of samples from throughoutthe Alto Paranaiba Igneous Province show that it is composedof a relatively diverse suite of ultrapotassic-potassic, ultramaficmqfic,silica-undersaturated lavas and hypabyssal intrusions, i.e.kimberlites, madupitic olivine lamproites and kamafugitic rocks.These all have very high concentrations of incompatible traceelements and are all strongly enriched in light rare earth relativeto heavy rare earth elements (e.g. La/Yb=50-230). Wide variationsin major element ratios, which are unrelated to the effectsof crystal fractionation in these magmas (e.g. CaO/Al₂O₃), suggestthat the mafic potassic rocks were derived from a heterogeneousmantle source. They show relatively restricted ranges of initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (070436-070588) and ^{G SRC="http://petrology.oxfordjournals.org/math/epsiv.gif" ALT="{varepsilon}" BORDER="0">}Nd₂₅ values of -4 to -8, intermediatebetween Group I and II South African kimberlites. T_DM Nd isotopemodel ages of G SRC="http://petrology.oxfordjournals.org/math/bsim.gif" ALT="{bsim}" BORDER="0">900 Ma suggest that the magmas were derived bythe remobilization of subcontinental lithospheric mantle thathad been enriched by small-volume K-rich melt fractions sincethe Late Proterozoic.New K/Ar ages for mica separates show thatthe kimberlites, madupitic olivine lamproites and kamafugiticrocks were emplaced together with large carbonatite-bearingplutonic complexes at G SRC="http://petrology.oxfordjournals.org/math/bsim.gif" ALT="{bsim}" BORDER="0">85 Ma. Reconstructions of plate motionsshow that, at this time, the location of the Alto ParanaibaIgneous Province coincided with the postulated position of thepresent-day Trindade(or Martin Vaz) plume. We propose that thewidespread Late Cretaceous alkaline magmatism in SE Brazil mayhave been caused by impingement of this plume on the base ofthe subcontinental lithosphere. Heat penetrating the lithosphere,both by conduction and advection by asthenospheric-source decompressionmelts, may have caused melting of the readily fusible partsof the lithospheric mantle and the genesis of mafic potassicand (after fractionation) carbonatite magmas. The Proterozoicmobile belt (the Brasilia Belt) appears to have acted as a Hhinspofrelative to the adjacent Sao Francisco craton, allowing greaterupwelling and melting of the asthenosphere. Subsequently, asthe craton passed over the plume, volcanism was switched off'until the Early Tertiary when the plume reemerged from beneaththe westward drifting South America continent and was the magmasource for oceanic-islands and seamounts of the Trindade-Vitriachain. Corresponding author