美国巨灾再保险的定价

美国巨灾再保险的价格，近些年来波动很明显。这些波动通常与灾害的发生形式有关。例如，在1992～1994年期间，灾害损失按1994年的美元值计算达到了386亿美元，超过了1949～1991年期间的累计损失346亿美元。在这3年期间，灾害再保险的价格一度高出了2倍多，而后开始下降。是什么驱动这种价格波动呢？是再保险需求变化呢，还是再保险资本供应变化呢，或是两者都有变化呢？     

SATELLITE-OBSERVED RADIATIVE ENERGY BUDGET DURING ONSET PHASE OF SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper satellite-derived radiative energy budget such as shortwave radiative heating,longwaveradiative heating and net radiation balance have been studied for the onset phase of summer monsoon1979. Since cloud play an important role in determining diabatic heating field as well as being a reflectionof status of the monsoon itself, the day to day evolution of clouds from TIROS-N satellite has beenmade. Satellite-derived radiative heating rates from surface to 100 hPa were computed for each 100 hPathickness layer. These heating rates were then compared with the observed latitudinal distribution of total radintive heating rates over the domain of the study. From the results of our study it was found thatthe characteristic features such as net radiative heating rates of the order of 0.2℃/day at upper tropospheric level(100-200 hPa)and cooling throughout the lower tropospheric layers with relatively lesscooling between 500-700 hPa layer observed.in a case of satellitexierived radiative energy budget agreewell with the characteristic features of observational radiative energy budget over the domain of thestudy. Therefore, it is suggested that radiative energy budget derived from satellite observati0ns be usedwith great potential and confidence for the evolution of complete life cycle of monsoon over the Indianregion for different years.     

垂直形变强度分析在地震预报中的应用

根据数学上曲面拟合度的概念定义－－平均垂直形变量，来定量分析研究地壳表面垂直形变的强度，这一量值同时值有系统分析性质一统计意义。采用５０－９０年代中国大陆趋势性的垂直移计算结果，并利用定方法研究了中国在陆垂直形变强度背景值的分布特征及其与地震危险性的关系；利用华北地区１９６５－１９８８年多期垂直形变资料，研究了１９７６年唐山７．８级大地震的前后华北地区垂直形变强度随时间变化的动态过程，得到了强震的     

建立地形—制图客观世界模型的策略与内容

随着地形制图生产方法从模拟到数字化的转变，我们面临着模拟客观世界实体与事实的任务。本文探讨模拟各种客观世界的策略并描述该过程的内容。     

甘肃天祝现代地壳运动GPS监测网的建立与第一期观测初步结果

本文以ＧＰＳ技术为基础，在位于青藏高原北缘、古浪－海原断裂带的甘肃天视一带布设了现代地壳运动监测网，并完成了第一期观测。初步处理结果表明，ＧＰＳ测量具有高精度，高效率等特点，可以成为监测现代地壳运动的最好方法之一。     

冰芯所记录的环境变化及空间耦合特征

近年来，我们先后在青藏高原的古里雅冰帽、唐古拉冰川和希夏邦马地区钻。取了大量冰芯。在这些冰芯中保存着大量的环境变化信息。特别是反映沙暴、尘暴和浮尘等环境事件的尘埃冰志记录，是目前我们所能得到的记录最详细、分辨率最高和最连续的资料系列。青藏高原冰芯中尘埃指标显示，在气候变冷时，青藏高原的尘暴、沙暴和浮尘等事件出现的频率增多，强度增大；在气候变暖时，则尘暴、沙暴和浮尘等事件的频率减少，强度减小。目前，在青藏高原面上，正经历着气候变暖、环境改善的过程。     

A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF ABRUPT GLOBAL WARMING IN THE 1920s

The abrupt warming of Northern Hemisphere in 1920s has been detected,the simplest model is introduced to ex-plain some deterministic and stochastic nature with this interesting phenomenon,and the implications of our approachto the predictability are discussed.     

城市气象对室内和室外健康的影响

本文的研究重点是热带城市气候的健康问题。由于现在或将来大气成分的变化，可能会引起全球变暖，从而导致气候的变化。世界卫生组织（WHO）认为，气候变化对健康的影响更多的是间接影响（例如，强制性移民、环境避难所及变化着的疾病传播媒介栖息地），而不是直接影响（例如，皮肤癌、白内障、心脏病及光化学雾引起的死亡），这种看法增加了气候变化对健康影响预报的不准确性。     

STANDARD ERRORS IN THE EIGENVALUES OF A CROSS-PRODUCT MATRIX:THEORY AND APPLICATIONS

New expressions are derived for the standard errors in the eigenvalues of a cross-product matrix by themethod of error propagation.Cross-product matrices frequently arise in multivariate data analysis,especially in principal component analysis (PCA).The derived standard errors account for the variabilityin the data as a result of measurement noise and are therefore essentially different from the standarderrors developed in multivariate statistics.Those standard errors were derived in order to account for thefinite number of observations on a fixed number of variables,the so-called sampling error.They can beused for making inferences about the population eigenvalues.Making inferences about the populationeigenvalues is often not the purposes of PCA in physical sciences,This is particularly true if themeasurements are performed on an analytical instrument that produces two-dimensional arrays for onechemical sample:the rows and columns of such a data matrix cannot be identified with observations onvariables at all.However,PCA can still be used as a general data reduction technique,but now the effectof measurement noise on the standard errors in the eigenvalues has to be considered.The consequencesfor significance testing of the eigenvalues as well as the usefulness for error estimates for scores andloadings of PCA,multiple linear regression (MLR) and the generalized rank annihilation method(GRAM) are discussed.The adequacy of the derived expressions is tested by Monte Carlo simulations.