Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

The uptake and accumulation of Ni by Cerastoderma edule and its effect on mortality,body condition and respiration rate

The concentration of Ni in C. edule ranges from 17·8 μg/g to 53·82 μg/g with the highest concentration in the gills and mantle and the lowest in the foot and adductor muscles. The concentration does not change with either size or season.There is no significant increase in mortality even in the highest Ni concentration (100 μg/litre), nor is body condition correlated with experimental Ni concentrations. The rate of uptake of Ni (y) is described by the equation:

$\text{y=?16·903+11·674x}{}_1\text{+0·437x}{}_2$

where x₁ = Ni concentration (μg/litre) and x₂ = time (h).The respiration rates did not significantly change up to the highest Ni concentration used (1000 μg/litre).It is postulated that the main pathway for Ni uptake is through the gills, possibly through mucus sheet or transmembrane absorption, with a secondary uptake route via the viscera.C. edule may therefore be a suitable indicator species for Ni.     

Changes in a rocky shore community: An evaluation of monitoring

The basic aim of this study was to record the changes in the communities on a moderately exposed rocky shore by a programme of repeated non-destructive sampling (‘monitoring’) and to determine the causes of these changes. Possible causative factors were investigated by the combined approach of analysing detailed sea-temperature and meteorological data for the period of the study and establishing manipulative field experiments.Fixed quadrats (2 m by 1 m) at three levels were visited at 6–8 weekly intervals for 30 months and the abundance and spatial pattern of major species assessed. In the ‘High’ quadrat the balance between Fucus spiralis and F. vesiculosus changed, and an outburst of ephemeral algae occurred following a decline in overall canopy cover. In the ‘Mid’ quadrat F. vesiculosus decreased considerably from its initial cover and virtually disappeared by the end of the study. In the ‘Low’ quadrat F. vesiculosus increased from being absent to comprising 20% of the canopy, whilst Semmibalanus (= Balanus) balanoides and ‘understorey’ algae decreased in cover. Actinia equina, Nucella lapillus and Patella vulgata showed marked changes in number at all levels where they occurred.Only certain of these changes could be attributed to the physical environment—most were biologically controlled. For example, manipulative experiments showed that the blooms of ephemeral algae and the decline of Patella in the high-shore quadrat, and the decline of Actinia in the mid-shore quadrat, were due to decreases in the fucoid canopy. These canopy changes were, in turn, the result of biological cycles which are characteristic of these communities. However, even with the support of manipulative experiments, it was not possible to account for (or predict) all of the observed natural changes. The extent of these fluctuations poses a serious obstacle to the recognition of any but very gross pollution-induced effects. The conclusion must be that the monitoring of rocky shores as a means of detecting and measuring pollution is likely to be an unproductive investment of time and resources.     

青藏高原东部全新世冬夏季风变化的高分辨率泥炭记录

在建立了全新世泥炭沉积物高分辨率冬夏季风代用指标时间序列的基础上, 发现青藏高原若尔盖地区全新世冬夏季风的变化具有此消彼长和同时消长两种基本的模式, 冬季风与夏季风在不同时间尺度上两种模式又相互嵌套. 由冬夏季风指标叠加效应合成的气候状况却有与全球同步的规律性, 表现出千年-百年尺度的不稳定性, 6.2 ka的季风突然减弱事件要比8.0 ka的事件更显著, 反映了亚洲季风的区域特点或它本身就是全球气候的一个窗口.     

Fluid evolution during burial and Variscan deformation in the Lower Devonian rocks of the High-Ardenne slate belt (Belgium): sources and causes of high-salinity and C–O–H–N fluids

Fluid inclusions in quartz veins of the High-Ardenne slate belt have preserved remnants of prograde and retrograde metamorphic fluids. These fluids were examined by petrography, microthermometry and Raman analysis to define the chemical and spatial evolution of the fluids that circulated through the metamorphic area of the High-Ardenne slate belt. The earliest fluid type was a mixed aqueous/gaseous fluid (H₂O–NaCl–CO₂–(CH₄–N₂)) occurring in growth zones and as isolated fluid inclusions in both the epizonal and anchizonal part of the metamorphic area. In the central part of the metamorphic area (epizone), in addition to this mixed aqueous/gaseous fluid, primary and isolated fluid inclusions are also filled with a purely gaseous fluid (CO₂–N₂–CH₄). During the Variscan orogeny, the chemical composition of gaseous fluids circulating through the Lower Devonian rocks in the epizonal part of the slate belt, evolved from an earlier CO₂–CH₄–N₂ composition to a later composition enriched in N₂. Finally, a late, Variscan aqueous fluid system with a H₂O–NaCl composition migrated through the Lower Devonian rocks. This latest type of fluid can be observed in and outside the epizonal metamorphic part of the High-Ardenne slate belt. The chemical composition of the fluids throughout the metamorphic area, shows a direct correlation with the metamorphic grade of the host rock. In general, the proportion of non-polar species (i.e. CO₂, CH₄, N₂) with respect to water and the proportion of non-polar species other than CO₂ increase with increasing metamorphic grade within the slate belt. In addition to this spatial evolution of the fluids, the temporal evolution of the gaseous fluids is indicative for a gradual maturation due to metamorphism in the central part of the basin. In addition to the maturity of the metamorphic fluids, the salinity of the aqueous fluids also shows a link with the metamorphic grade of the host-rock. For the earliest and latest fluid inclusions in the anchizonal part of the High-Ardenne slate belt the salinity varies respectively between 0 and 3.5 eq.wt% NaCl and between 0 and 2.7 eq.wt% NaCl, while in the epizonal part the salinity varies between 0.6 and 17 eq.wt% NaCl and between 3 and 10.6 eq.wt% for the earliest and latest aqueous fluid inclusions, respectively. Although high salinity fluids are often attributed to the original sedimentary setting, the increasing salinity of the fluids that circulated through the Lower Devonian rocks in the High-Ardenne slate belt can be directly attributed to regional metamorphism. More specifically the salinity of the primary fluid inclusions is related to hydrolysis reactions of Cl-bearing minerals during prograde metamorphism, while the salinity of the secondary fluid inclusions is rather related to hydration reactions during retrograde metamorphism. The temporal and spatial distribution of the fluids in the High-Ardenne slate belt are indicative for a closed fluid flow system present in the Lower Devonian rocks during burial and Variscan deformation, where fluids were in thermal and chemical equilibrium with the host rock. Such a closed fluid flow system is confirmed by stable isotope study of the veins and their adjacent host rock for which uniform δ¹⁸0 values of both the veins and their host rock demonstrate a rock-buffered fluid flow system.     

Recognition of the Cambrian Timan–Severnaya Zemlya orogen and timing of geological evolution of the North Kara sedimentary basin based on detrital zircon dating

New data on the ages of detrital zircons from folded basement rocks and cover sediments of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago and Izvestiy TSIK islands have been obtained. The basement age is defined as Cambrian (pre-Ordovician). The Ordovician and Silurian sandstones were mainly formed by erosion of the basement rocks. The Devonian sandstones were formed by debris sourced from the Caledonian orogen. The Carboniferous–Early Permian molasse was formed simultaneously with the erosion of the Carboniferous granitoids and weathering of the Ordovician volcanic arc rocks and the Cambrian basement. The North Kara basin was formed in the Ordovician as a back-arc basin. It experienced its main compression deformations at the boundary of the Devonian and Carboniferous and in the Carboniferous.     

Characterising the distribution of near-shore submarine groundwater discharge along a coastline using 222Rn and electrical conductivity

The spatial and temporal distribution of near-shore fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was characterised from the coastal aquifers of the Willunga Basin, South Australia, an extensive aquifer system that supports an important viticultural region. Measurements of electrical conductivity (EC) and ²²²Rn (radon) activity were collected at 19 sites along the coastline during the Southern Hemisphere spring (2011) and summer (2013). At each site, samples were collected from the surf zone as well asporewater from beach sediment in the intertidal zone. Surf-zone radon activity ranged from <5 to 70mBq L^–1, and intertidal porewater radon ranged over two orders of magnitude (220–36 940 mBq L^–1) along the Willunga Basin coastline during both surveys. Overall, surf-zone and porewater EC was lower in the spring 2011 survey than in the summer 2013 survey. Porewater EC was similar to that of coastal water at most sites along the coastline, except at three sites where porewater EC was found to be lower than coastal water during both surveys, and three sites where evaporated seawater was observed in the summer survey. Based on the patterns in radon and EC along the coastline, two sites of localised fresh SGD were identified, in addition to a groundwater spring that is known to discharge to the coast. The results indicate that near-shore fresh SGD occurs as localised seeps rather than diffuse seepage along the entire coastline. The apparent absence of groundwater discharge at most locations is also consistent with current evidence suggesting that extensive groundwater pumping within the basin has resulted in seawater intrusion across much of the coastline. These observations also suggest that previous studies are likely to have over-estimated SGD rates from the Willunga Basin because they assumed that SGD occurred along the entire coastline.