Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Assessing quality of volunteer crowdsourcing contributions: lessons from the Cropland Capture game

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) is the assembly of spatial information based on public input. While VGI has proliferated in recent years, assessing the quality of volunteer-contributed data has proven challenging, leading some to question the efficiency of such programs. In this paper, we compare several quality metrics for individual volunteers’ contributions. The data were the product of the ‘Cropland Capture’ game, in which several thousand volunteers assessed 165,000 images for the presence of cropland over the course of 6 months. We compared agreement between volunteer ratings and an image's majority classification with volunteer self-agreement on repeated images and expert evaluations. We also examined the impact of experience and learning on performance. Volunteer self-agreement was nearly always higher than agreement with majority classifications, and much greater than agreement with expert validations although these metrics were all positively correlated. Volunteer quality showed a broad trend toward improvement with experience, but the highest accuracies were achieved by a handful of moderately active contributors, not the most active volunteers. Our results emphasize the importance of a universal set of expert-validated tasks as a gold standard for evaluating VGI quality.     

The Oxaya anticline (northern Chile): a buckle enhanced by river incision?

A prominent structure in the Western Escarpment of the Andes of northern Chile is the Oxaya anticline, dissected at the culmination by >1500 m deep valleys. The distribution of fault and fold structures indicates that the anticline could represent a simple buckle. Buckling thus appears to have accommodated crustal shortening in the plate overriding the subducting plate, between the trench and the Western Cordillera. Cross-cutting relationships between structures and dated strata indicated that the time interval of enhanced buckling coincides with the period when rates of valley formation were enhanced. We thus propose that the formation of this anticline was enhanced by fluvial incision, which is consistent with the results of published theoretical models.     

Strombeobachtungen in der südwestlichen Nordsee

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Biological and Physical Clogging in Infiltration Wells: Effects of Well Diameter and Gravel Pack

Gravity-driven infiltration into the shallow subsurface via small-diameter wells (SDWs), i.e., wells with an inner diameter smaller than 7.5 cm (3 inches) and no gravel pack) has proven to be a cost-efficient and flexible tool for managed aquifer recharge (MAR), as it provides relatively high recharge rates with minimal construction effort. SDWs have a significantly smaller open filter area than larger diameter wells with gravel pack, making the infiltration of low-quality waters through these wells more at risk clogging. To investigate their susceptibility for biological and physical clogging, 24 physical models with different well setups were evaluated by infiltrating either nutrient-poor but turbid water or nutrient-rich but clear water. The experiments showed that smaller diameters and the lack of a gravel pack increase the well's susceptibility to both kinds of clogging. However, this effect was observed to be much more pronounced for physical than for biological clogging. Our conclusion is that SDWs show severe disadvantages with respect to the infiltration of highly turbid waters in comparison to large diameter wells with a gravel pack. Nevertheless, this disadvantage is much less severe when it comes to the infiltration of clear but nutrient-rich waters (e.g., treated wastewater). Depending on the economic and geological circumstances of a MAR-project, this disadvantage could be outweighed by the significantly lower construction costs of SDWs.