A Climate Prediction Method Based on EMD and Ensemble Prediction Technique

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.     

Aircraft Observations of Sea-Surface Turbulent Fluxes Near the California Coast

Aircraft turbulence data from the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network project were analyzed and compared to the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk parametrization of turbulent fluxes in an ocean area near the coast of California characterized by complex atmospheric flow. Turbulent fluxes measured at about 35 m above the sea surface using the eddy-correlation method were lower than bulk estimates under unstable and stable atmospheric stratification for all but light winds. Neutral turbulent transfer coefficients were used in this comparison because they remove the effects of mean atmospheric conditions and atmospheric stability. Spectral analysis suggested that kilometre-scale longitudinal rolls affect significantly turbulence measurements even near the sea surface, depending on sampling direction. Cross-wind sampling tended to capture all the available turbulent energy. Vertical soundings showed low boundary-layer depths and high flux divergence near the sea surface in the case of sensible heat flux but minimal flux divergence for the momentum flux. Cross-wind sampling and flux divergence were found to explain most of the observed discrepancies between the measured and bulk flux estimates. At low wind speeds the drag coefficient determined with eddy correlation and an inertial dissipation method after corrections were applied still showed high values compared to bulk estimates. This discrepancy correlated with the dominance of sea swell, which was a usually observed condition under low wind speeds. Under stable atmospheric conditions measured sensible heat fluxes, which usually have low values over the ocean, were possibly affected by measurement errors and deviated significantly from bulk estimates.     

Trace Metal Solid State Speciation in Aerosols of the Northern Levantine Basin,East Mediterranean

An established three stage sequential leach scheme was applied to a series of selected high volume aerosol samples (n = 35) collected from the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Erdemli). Samples were selected according to their air mass back trajectory history to reflect the contrasting mixtures of aerosol material present in the Eastern Mediterranean marine aerosol. Two populations were adopted, those samples which were classed as “anthropogenic” and those which were “Saharan” dominated aerosol populations. Applying the three stage leach it was possible to define the proportion for each of the considered metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn and Mn) present in the (a) “exchangeable” (b) “carbonate / oxide” and (c) “refractory” phases, representing novel solid state aerosol speciation data for this marine system. Clear trends were established, conforming with data from previous studies with mainly crustal derived metals (Al and Fe) being present in the refractory phases (Al > 88%; Fe > 84%) and those influenced by anthropogenic sources being dominating in the exchangeable phase, although for these metals the variability was comparatively high (12–64%; 19–85%; 40–100% for Zn, Pb and Cd, respectively). For the majority, greater exchangeable fractions were present the lower the crustal source contribution to the aerosol population, whereas the “refractory” fraction exhibited contrasting behaviour. This was illustrated by the novel application of the mixing diagram, presenting each of the three speciation stages against the corresponding percent anthropogenic contribution to each collected sample. Zn, Pb and Cd all illustrated progressive decrease in the percent exchangeable with increasing crustal contribution to the aerosol population. The percent exchangeable was discussed in terms of its use to represent the upper limit of the bioavailable fraction of metal associated with the aerosol, post deposition. The mixing diagram approach enabled the prediction of the residual fractions for Cd, Pb and Zn (41 ± 4%; 62 ± 4% and 82 ± 5%, respectively,) in Saharan end-member material.     

西宁和贵德盆地新生代沉积物重矿物变化对构造活动的响应

位于青藏高原东北缘的西宁、贵德盆地的新生代沉积序列较完整的记录了盆地周围物源区构造变形过程。重矿物是碎屑物质的重要组成部分,是最直观、有效揭示源区母岩、构造-沉积过程的重要手段。通过重矿物的系统分析,结合沉积-构造变形,揭示出始新世-上新世末西宁-贵得盆地及其源区经历了几个构造活动阶段:古新世-始新世早期的隆升阶段、始新世中期-渐新世晚期的构造稳定阶段、渐新世末-中新世初的构造隆升阶段、中中新世构造稳定阶段和晚中新世以来的强烈隆升阶段。并结合特征矿物（绿泥石）及古水流分析,推断古近纪西宁-贵德盆地是东昆仑山前一个统一盆地。中新世早期青藏高原的扩张导致了拉脊山开始隆起,使原型盆地解体;约8.5 Ma以来拉脊山强烈隆升,两侧盆地逐渐转变为山间盆地。这为正确理解青藏高原东北缘盆山格局的形成和演化提供了重要依据。     

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

Ecological compensation for desertification control: A review

Desertification control is a crucial way to enhancing the ecological conditions of arid and semi-arid regions, and maintaining sustainable development globally. Designing and improving an ecological compensation mechanism for desertification control has great significance related to achieving balance amongst the needs of different economic subjects and the assurance of a sustained and stable supply of desert ecosystem services. In this paper, (1) the theoretical bases of ecological compensation for desertification control were re-analyzed; (2) the research status and challenges of three important topics related to ecological compensation for desertification control were systemically discussed, including compensation standards, ecosystem service supply-consumption process and multi-scale effects, and resource- environment basis and policy orientation; (3) a research framework of ecological compensation for desertification control based on the process of desert ecosystem service supply–flow–consumption was proposed; (4) and finally, seven priority research issues were discussed, which aimed to support ecological compensation policy-making and ecological engineering implementation for desertification control.     

Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta

Evolution of river systems under the background of human activities has been a heated topic among geographers and hydrologists. Spatial and temporal variations of river systems during the 1960s–2010s in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were investigated based on streams derived from the topographic maps in the 1960s, 1980s and 2010s. A list of indices, drainage density (Dd), water surface ratio (WSR), ratio of area to length of main streams (R), evolution coefficient of tributaries (K) and box dimension (D), were classified into three types (quantitative, structural, and complex indices) and used to quantify the variations of stream structure. Results showed that: (1) quantitative indices (Dd, WSR) presented decreasing trend in the past 50 years, and Dd in Wuchengxiyu, Hangjiahu and Yindongnan have decreased most, about 20%. Structurally, the Qinhuai River basin was characterized by significant upward R, and K value in Hangjiahu went down dramatically by 46.8% during the 1960s–2010s. Decreasing tendency in D was found dominating across the YRD, and decreasing magnitude in Wuchengxiyu and Hangjiahu peaks for 7.8% and 6.5%, respectively in the YRD. (2) Urbanization affected the spatial pattern of river system, and areas with high level of urbanization exhibited least Dd (2.18 km/km²), WSR (6.52%), K (2.64) and D (1.42), compared to moderate and low levels of urbanization. (3) Urbanization also affected the evolution of stream system. In the past 50 years, areas with high level of urbanization showed compelling decreasing tendency in quantitative (27.2% and 19.3%) and complex indices (4.9%) and trend of enlarging of main rivers (4.5% and 7.9% in periods of the 1960s–1980s and the 1980s–2010s). In the recent 30 years, areas with low level of urbanization were detected with significant downward trend in Dd and K. (4) Expanding of urban land, construction of hydraulic engineering and irrigation and water conservancy activities were the main means which degraded the river system in the YRD.     

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.     

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have significant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index (DWAAI) and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB-ML) to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Niña or within the subsequent 8 months after La Niña, which implies that La Niña events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.     

中国土壤动物生态地理研究进展(英文)

This review summarizes main research findings in soil fauna eco-geography in China in the past 30 years.The subject areas and main results were overviewed including biodiversity and eco-geological distribution of soil fauna communities.Studies of ecological distributions of soil fauna and dynamic ranges in space from tropical,subtropical to temperate regions,and in categories from forest,grassland,desert,wetland,farmland to urban ecosystems,the responses and indications of soil fauna to soil environments.Ef...