Seismostratigraphic analysis with centennial to decadal time resolution of the sediment sink in the Ganges-Brahmaputra subaqueous delta

The deltas of large rivers have become the focus of many research studies due to their vulnerability in times of expected sea level rise. One major delta in peril is the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) due to its low elevation and high subsidence rate. In this study, high-resolution seismic and sediment echosounder data of the subaqueous part of the delta are analyzed by an integrated seismo-acoustic stratigraphic approach.Transparent Units (TUs) are the most prominent, continuously traceable architectural elements within the sigmoidal clinoform. TUs consist of homogenized sediments and are interpreted to be formed by liquefaction flows generated by subduction-related earthquakes of the nearby plate-boundary. The uppermost TUs are related to the historical well known major earthquakes which occurred in 1762, 1897 and 1950. Using the TUs as time marks the mean annual storage rates for the intervals could be assessed. A direct comparison of echosounder data gathered in 1994, 1997 and 2006 is used as another method to estimate the last decade mean annual storage rate.In general, the averaged decadal to centennial mean annual storage rates in the foreset beds have significantly decreased within the last ∼300 years from 22% to 18% and down to 13.8% of the present total annual fluviatile suspension supply to the delta (10⁹ t a⁻¹). This decrease, however, is not evenly distributed along the foreset beds. In the western clinoform mean annual storage rates slightly decreased during the last ∼300 years, whereas in the eastern clinoform the mean annual storage rate of the last decade is one-third of the initial value in the late eighteenth century.The variation of clinoform slope angles generally coincides with the local accumulation rates but a variable degree of asymmetry gives some new insights in the future trend of the subaqueous delta development. The sink of sediment in the western clinoform depocentre landward of the inflection point, where shape changes from convex to concave, is producing an increase in concavity.The decline in monsoon precipitation over the last centuries is assumed to have significantly contributed to the decreased mean annual storage rate in the eastern clinoform where the convexity of the clinoform increases seaward of the inflection point. It is very likely that the whole depocentre of the fluvial sediment load is shifting toward the western subaqueous delta and to the Swatch of No Ground Canyon and, thereby, increasing the export to the deep-sea fan.     

Effect of Surface Heterogeneity on the Boundary-Layer Height: A Case Study at a Semi-Arid Forest

We investigate the effects of an isolated meso-\(\gamma \)-scale surface heterogeneity for roughness and albedo on the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, with a case study at a semi-arid forest surrounded by sparse shrubland (forest area: \(28~\text{ km }^2\), forest length in the main wind direction: 7 km). Doppler lidar and ceilometer measurements at this semi-arid forest show an increase in the ABL height over the forest compared with the shrubland on four out of eight days. The differences in the ABL height between shrubland and forest are explained for all days with a model that assumes a linear growth of the internal boundary layer of the forest through the convective ABL upwind of the forest followed by a square-root growth into the stable free atmosphere. For the environmental conditions that existed during our measurements, the increase in ABL height due to large sensible heat fluxes from the forest (\(600~\text {W~m}^{-2}\) in summer) is subdued by stable stratification in the free atmosphere above the ABL, or reduced by high wind speeds in the mixed layer.     

Constraints on crustal and mantle structure of the oceanic plate south of Iceland from ocean bottom recorded Rayleigh waves

From April to July 2002 we carried out a deployment of 6 ocean bottom seismometers and 4 ocean bottom hydrophones in the North Atlantic south of Iceland. During the deployment period we recorded clear Rayleigh waves from 2 regional and 14 teleseismic earthquakes. This corresponds to a Rayleigh wave detection rate of nearly 92% for events with M_W ≥ 6.06.0 and epicentral distance less than 110°, close to detection rate estimates based on noise level variability. We measured Rayleigh wave event-station group dispersion and inter-station phase dispersion for one Mid-Atlantic Ridge event. The group dispersion curve is sensitive to the structure of the North-East Atlantic with an average age of  39 Myr. The phase dispersion curve is sensitive to the structure just south of Iceland (average plate age 33 Myr). Both dispersion curves indicate faster velocities than previously postulated for oceanic plate generated at the Reykjanes Ridge. A grid search approach was used to constrain the range of models fitting the data. The high velocity seismic lid just south of Iceland in the model for the phase dispersion path is slower or thinner than in the group dispersion model, which averages over a larger area and a somewhat older plate age, but the velocities in the low velocity half space are similar. We further consider the residual bathymetry in the experimental area. The residual anomaly decreases by 300–400 m from the Reykjanes Ridge to the  30 Myr old plate south of Iceland. This decrease can be explained by the disappearance of a mantle thermal anomaly associated with the Iceland plume. Both the residual bathymetry and the surface wave data are thus consistent with the notion that the southward spreading of the Icelandic plume is channelised underneath the Reykjanes Ridge and does not spread far outside this channel.Based on the experience from the pilot experiment, we estimate that a minimum recording time of 13–15 months in favourable weather conditions (April–September) is required to record enough data to map the spreading plume with surface waves, and to produce a tomographic image to a depth of 1000 km using body waves. This can be achieved by a continuous deployment of at least  20 months, or by two or three deployments during the spring and summer of consecutive years.     

Evaluation of Probe-Induced Flow Distortion of Campbell CSAT3 Sonic Anemometers by Numerical Simulation

The Campbell CSAT3 sonic anemometer is one of the most popular instruments for turbulence measurements in basic micrometeorological research and ecological applications. While measurement uncertainty has been characterized by field experiments and wind-tunnel studies in the past, there are conflicting estimates, which motivated us to conduct a numerical experiment using large-eddy simulation to evaluate the probe-induced flow distortion of the CSAT3 anemometer under controlled conditions, and with exact knowledge of the undisturbed flow. As opposed to wind-tunnel studies, we imposed oscillations in both the vertical and horizontal velocity components at the distinct frequencies and amplitudes found in typical turbulence spectra in the surface layer. The resulting flow-distortion errors for the standard deviations of the vertical velocity component range from 3 to 7%, and from 1 to 3% for the horizontal velocity component, depending on the azimuth angle. The magnitude of these errors is almost independent of the frequency of wind speed fluctuations, provided the amplitude is typical for surface-layer turbulence. A comparison of the corrections for transducer shadowing proposed by both Kaimal et al. (Proc Dyn Flow Conf, 551–565, 1978) and Horst et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 155:371–395, 2015) show that both methods compensate for a larger part of the observed error, but do not sufficiently account for the azimuth dependency. Further numerical simulations could be conducted in the future to characterize the flow distortion induced by other existing types of sonic anemometers for the purposes of optimizing their geometry.     

Combining indicator patterns in weights of evidence modeling for resource evaluation

The weights of evidence model for combining indicator patterns in mineral resource evaluation is briefly explained with emphasis on the effect of undiscovered deposits on the estimation of the weights and posterior probabilities. A group of six statistical tests is proposed for analyzing the interaction of two or three indicator patterns with the point pattern for mineral deposits. A distinction is made between statistics that depend on choice of unit cell size and those that are approximately or completely independent of it. Finally, weights of evidence are compared to regression coefficients obtained by means of the logistic model.     

Estimation of the Mesozoic geological time scale

Geological time scales are constructed by combining the stratigraphic record with radiometric dates and their standard deviations. The stratigraphic record encompasses litho-, bio-, chrono-, and magnetostratigraphy. The statistical methods employed should embody concepts and data available for the systems considered. Recently, in order to estimate the ages of 31 Mesozoic stage boundaries, use was made of a database with chronostratigraphic classifications for 340 dates, biostratigraphic data including ammonite subzones, and information on seafloor spreading. This paper is primarily concerned with the propagation of errors through the successive steps of the data analysis. The following stepwise approach was taken for combining the different types of data: (1) maximum likelihood estimation with windows set around prior stage boundary estimates, (2) averaging of estimates with variable precision including magnetochronologic data, and (3) calibration by means of cubic smoothing splines assuming equal duration of ammonite subzones. The end product is a time-scale in which the stage boundary ages are accompanied by approximate 95 per cent confidence intervals.     

New insights into Southern Caucasian glacial–interglacial climate conditions inferred from Quaternary gastropod fauna

In the present study, we performed gastropod analyses on loess–palaeosol sequences from northeast Armenia (Southern Caucasia) covering at least three glacial–interglacial cycles. The elaborated ecostratigraphy shows significant patterns of species composition related to the succession of pedocomplexes and loess, respectively. Pedocomplexes included species that can be associated with high-grass to forest-steppe biomes, indicating increased humidity for these sections compared to the loess layers. In contrast, loess layers that relate to glacial periods are associated with gastropod species of semidesert environments with shrub- and shortgrass-steppes, indicating semiarid to arid conditions. Furthermore, the loess deposits do not show any evidence for cold-adapted gastropod species. Therefore, we suggest that average July temperatures in the study area were above 10 °C, even during periods of loess deposition. Consequently, we propose that the limiting factor for tree growth during glacial periods was aridity, rather than temperature. In addition, we observe environmental differences between the various glacial times, with our results indicating a trend towards steadily increasing aridity in Southern Caucasia across the Middle to Late Pleistocene.     

Conditional Independence Test for Weights-of-Evidence Modeling

Weights-of-evidence modeling is a GIS-based technique for relating a point pattern for locations of discrete events with several map layers. In general, the map layers are binary or ternary. Weights for presence, absence or missing data are added to a prior logit. Updating with two or more map layers is allowed only if the map layers are approximately conditionally independent of the point pattern. The final product is a map of posterior probabilities of occurrence of the discrete event within a small unit cell. This paper contains formal proof that conditional independence of map layers implies that T, the sum of the posterior probabilities weighted according to unit cell area, is equal to n, being the total number of discrete events. This result is used in the overall or omnibus test for conditional independence. In practical applications, T generally exceeds n, indicating a possible lack of conditional independence. Estimation of the standard deviation of T allows performance of a one-tailed test to check whether or not T-n is significantly greater than zero. This new test is exact and simpler to use than other tests including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and various chi-squared tests adapted from discrete multivariate statistics.