Defining and interpreting shoreline change

Successfully managing the coastal zone requires careful consideration of all the components of shoreline motion. Shoreline movement is a complex phenomenon that is the result of both natural processes and man-made effects. Some of these processes occur over millennia, while others are recent and may be cyclic. Understanding changes to the shore requires both a complete understanding of the underlying processes and an ability to accurately measure the changes. Many uncertainties exist, and predictions must be approached with an understanding of potential errors. Agencies using predictions must exercise caution and be prudent in the application of predictions for management decisions.     

Evolution of Icelandic central volcanoes: evidence from the Austurhorn intrusion,southeastern Iceland

The Austurhorn intrusive complex in southeastern Iceland represents an exhumed Tertiary central volcano. The geometry of the intrusion and geochemistry of the mafic and felsic rocks indicate Austurhorn was a volcanic center analogous to Eyjafjallajökull and Torfajökull in Iceland's eastern neovolcanic zone (EVZ). Early transitional tholeiitic basalt magmatism at Austurhorn formed a shallow crustal chamber 5 km in diameter. Apparent rhythmic modal layering of, and intrusive contacts within, the gabbro indicate the mafic chamber was replenished frequently as it cooled and crystallized. Felsic activity postdated near-solidification of the gabbro; numerous granitic magmas intruded along gabbro margins and within the adjacent crust. Field relations indicate that infrequent felsic replenishment prevented convective mixing of the Austurhorn chamber during this time, although commingled mafic and felsic magmas are observed in an extensive net veined complex. Late stage mafic dikes intrude the entire complex, suggesting that magmatic heat was abundantly available throughout the evolution of the Austurhorn system. Plagioclase and clinopyroxene compositions in mafic through felsic rocks, including gabbros, support a model of progressive differentiation. Field relations constrain the felsic magmas to originate at P1 kbar, presumably by fractional crystallization. The structure and geochemistry of the Austurhorn intrusive complex suggest formation in an immature rift environment similar to the modern EVZ. The proposed rift segment was parallel to the western and eastern neovolcanic zones, and probably resulted from a reorganization of plate boundaries 7 Ma (Saemundsson 1979; Helgason 1985; Jancin et al. 1985) triggered by activity of the Iceland mantle plume.     

Simultaneous operation of opposing reaction mechanisms: The influence of matrix heterogeneity on post-kinematic garnet crystallization in an inverted metamorphic sequence

Metapelites from the inverted Barrovian sequence in the Sikkim Himalaya (northeast India) are shown to be largely continuous with respect to their bulk rock compositions, microstructures and pressure–temperature–time–deformation (P–T–t–D) histories. However, the upper garnet–lower staurolite zone demarcates a region of microstructurally anomalous post-kinematic garnet populations contained within strongly segregated matrices. The different microstructures within samples from this region cannot be attributed to differences in their thermobarometric histories or bulk compositions, but are instead interpreted to represent an otherwise unexposed level of the Daling Group that is now exposed along a post-metamorphic thrust splay. These heterogeneous samples contain several discrete garnet populations that progressively crystallized with increasing P–T. Garnet populations that experienced the most protracted growth now form complex polycrystals that exhibit crystallographically controlled and morphologically irregular interfaces adjacent to micaceous and quartzofeldspathic domains respectively. Electron backscatter diffraction indicates that these polycrystalline garnet structures contain numerous coalesced porphyroblasts that are structurally uncorrelated across their grain boundaries. However, a crystallographically preferred orientation at the polycrystal scale is interpreted to derive from epitaxial crystallization of early-formed garnet porphyroblasts on precursor mica. Later-nucleated porphyroblasts within polycrystals preferentially concentrated towards quartzofeldspathic domains, with the overall nucleation distribution likely controlled by a complex interplay between chemical heterogeneities, strain partitioning and epitaxial crystallization. The subsequent growth of these polycrystals was equally spatially heterogeneous; it was moderated by differences in the efficiency of grain boundary transfer between quartzofeldspathic and micaceous domains that precluded thin section-scale chemical equilibration. In contrast to samples from Sikkim containing more typical porphyroblastic populations in continuous and disseminated matrices, heterogeneous availability of garnet-forming components within this strongly layered matrix is shown to have resulted in grain-scale variations in growth rates and the spatial juxtapositioning of interface-controlled microstructures and locally equilibrated chemical compositions with those that were transport controlled.     

The changing social relations of a community-based mangrove forest project in Zanzibar

Coastal areas in East Africa are experiencing rapid economic, resource management, demographic and technological shifts. In response diverse Community-based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) applications have been embraced to provide mutual conservation and use benefits. These initiatives have met with mixed success in practice. Reflecting on the limitations of past research using common pool resources theory theory to study CBNRM we use insights from actor oriented theory combined with satellite image analysis to describe and discuss the forces dynamically influencing institutional and mangrove forest cover change at Kisakasaka, Zanzibar focussing on the formal CBNRM project period between 1996 and 2001, but also considering the period before and after this. We examine the shifting social relations that affected the performance and viability of the formal CBNRM arrangements. An integrated approach was taken to the presentation and discussion of results where it was possible to enrich and expand explanations of socio-environmental change, which was driven by a lack of government support, the undermining effects of party political divisions, and the lack of institutional adaptive capacity. We conclude that this was a useful approach to explain CBNRM intervention events at Kisakasaka.     

气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例

 欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500 mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环（GLOWA-Elbe）项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50 a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。     

From Tethys to Eastern Paratethys: Oligocene depositional environments, paleoecology and paleobiogeography of the Thrace Basin (NW Turkey)

The Oligocene depositional history of the Thrace Basin documents a unique paleogeographic position at a junction between the Western Tethys and the Eastern Paratethys. As part of the Tethys, shallow marine carbonate platforms prevailed during the Eocene. Subsequently, a three-staged process of isolation started with the Oligocene. During the Early Rupelian, the Thrace Basin was still part of the Western Tethys, indicated by typical Western Tethyan marine assemblages. The isolation from the Tethys during the Early Oligocene is reflected by oolite formation and endemic Eastern Paratethyan faunas of the Solenovian stage. The third phase reflects an increasing continentalisation of the Thrace Basin with widespread coastal swamps during the Late Solenovian. The mollusc assemblages are predominated by mangrove dwelling taxa and the mangrove plant Avicennia is recorded in the pollen spectra. The final continentalisation is indicated by the replacement of the coastal swamps by pure freshwater swamps and fluvial plains during the Late Oligocene (mammal zone MP 26). This paleogeographic affiliation of the Thrace Basin with the Eastern Paratethys after ~32 Ma contrasts all currently used reconstructions which treat the basin as embayment of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.     

A structural model from local earthquake tomography: Application to present-day tectonics of the Upper Rhine Graben

We present a novel numerical approach to construct quantitative tectonic models from crustal velocity distributions derived from local earthquake tomography. Independent constraints on the location and orientation of structures are obtained from earthquake hypocenters and seismic reflection profiles. An application of this method is given for the southern end of the Upper Rhine Graben (northwestern Europe). Kinematic boundary conditions are imposed on the structural model to investigate the large scale intraplate deformation in the region. A 3-D finite element code is used to calculate the displacements, the distribution of stresses, and the potential for brittle failure in the Graben. The modeling takes into account the intersection and curvature of crustal faults. The results demonstrate the dependence of fault interaction in the system on kinematic conditions, as well as the influence of minor faults on the kinematics of major basin bounding master faults. We show that although most of the deformation in the region is taken up by the eastern boundary faults of the Rhine Graben, all faults in the system have the potential to be (re)activated. In particular, a fault system underlying the front of the Jura fold and thrust belt appears to accommodate a large part of the intraplate deformation.     

Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change

In most of Europe, an increase in average annual surface temperature of 0·8 °C is observed, and a further increase is projected. Precipitation tends to increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, with variable trends in central Europe. The climate scenarios for Germany suggest an increase in precipitation in western Germany and a decrease in eastern Germany, and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter. When investigating the effects of climate change, impacts on water resources are among the main concerns. In this study, the first German‐wide impact assessment of water fluxes dynamics under climate change is presented in a spatially and temporally distributed manner using the state‐of‐the‐art regional climate model, Statistical Regional (STAR) model and the semi‐distributed process‐based eco‐hydrological model, soil and water integrated model (SWIM). All large river basins in Germany (lower Rhine, upper Danube, Elbe, Weser and Ems) are included. A special focus of the study was on data availability, homogeneity of data sets, related uncertainty propagation in the model results and scenario‐related uncertainty. After the model calibration and validation (efficiency from 0·6 to 0·9 in 80% of cases) the water flow components were simulated at the hydrotope level, and the spatial distributions were compared with those in the Hydrological Atlas of Germany. The actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions. The results for the second scenario period 2051–2060 show that water discharge in all six rivers would be 8–30% lower in summer and autumn compared with the reference period, and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). However, the uncertainty of impacts, especially in winter and for high water flows, remains high. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.