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91.
Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which
makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization
of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary
to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms
for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model
appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the
random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions
correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they
are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates. 相似文献
92.
Rudolf Brázdil Hubert Valáek Kateina Chromá 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2006,88(2):79-86
This paper deals with documentary evidence of an economic character as a proxy for direct study of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Taxation records and reports of those who administrated domains and estates are described with respect to information about meteorological and hydrological extremes. Based on data from eight domains or estates from Moravia (in the Czech Republic), frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were developed for the period 1650–1849. One example of disastrous weather, which took place on 10 August 1694 in the Pern?tejn domain, is used to demonstrate the potential for such studies of the intensity of extremes and their impact on human activities. The importance of economic evidence in the instrumental period is shown through tax rebate data contingent upon hailstorm damage in Moravia (1896–1906). The benefits of employing documentary economic evidence for historical climatology and the study of the impact of meteorological and hydrological extremes on human activities are discussed. 相似文献
93.
Daniel H. Doctor E. Calvin Alexander Jr Metka Petrič Janja Kogovšek Janko Urbanc Sonja Lojen Willibald Stichler 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1171-1191
Karst aquifer components that contribute to the discharge of a water supply well in the Classical Karst (Kras) region (Italy/Slovenia) were quantitatively estimated during storm events. Results show that water released from storage within the epikarst may comprise as much as two-thirds of conduit flow in a karst aquifer following rainfall. Principal components analysis (PCA) and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) were performed using major ion chemistry and the stable isotopes of water (δ18O, δ2H) and of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC) to estimate mixing proportions among three sources: (1) allogenic river recharge, (2) autogenic recharge, and (3) an anthropogenic component stored within the epikarst. The sinking river most influences the chemical composition of the water-supply well under low-flow conditions; however, this proportion changes rapidly during recharge events. Autogenic recharge water, released from shallow storage in the epikarst, displaces the river water and is observed at the well within hours after the onset of precipitation. The autogenic recharge end member is the second largest component of the well chemistry, and its contribution increases with higher flow. An anthropogenic component derived from epikarstic storage also impacts the well under conditions of elevated hydraulic head, accounting for the majority of the chemical response at the well during the wettest conditions. 相似文献
94.
95.
DUO Ji WEN Chunqi FAN Xiaoping GUO Jianci NI Zhiyao LI Xiaowen SHI Yuruo WEN Quan 《《地质学报》英文版》2006,80(6):954-956
A detrital zircon aged 4.1 Ga is discovered by the SHRIMP U-Pb method in a quartzite in Burang County, western Tibet. This is presently the oldest single-grain detrital zircon in China. The Th-U ratios of the two testing points of the 〉4.0 Ga zircon are between 0.76 and 0.86, indicating their magmatic origin. This discovery has offered an important age for investigating the geological evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. 相似文献
96.
作为公益性财政拨款事业单位,省级地震系统实现开发富局,应该要从稳定项目收入,拓展自营收入,培育和发展生产点,推进制度创新着手。本文试图从预算和管理的角度对其作一点简单分析。 相似文献
97.
98.
韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约——以北阿尔金巴什考供韧性剪切带为例 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约一直是地质学家们探讨的课题。本文以构成北阿尔金红柳沟——拉配泉俯冲碰撞杂岩带与北阿尔金地块边界的巴什考供斜向逆冲型韧性剪切带为例,通过对韧性剪切带内花岗岩变形前后不同变形强度构造岩的地球化学组成进行对比,确定等比线斜率,探讨韧性变形对岩石体积和成分变异的影响。计算结果表明,在糜棱岩化过程中,糜棱岩化花岗岩体积亏损21%,花岗质糜棱岩体积亏损31%。质量平衡计算结果和等比线图表明,韧;陛剪切作用导致SiO2,流失量最大,A12O3、K2O及Ba、Rb、Sr等都有不同程度的丢失,显示出较强的活动性,MnO、P2O5、Sc位于等比线上或附近,表现出相对的稳定性。岩石中活动组分的变异是流体渗滤作用引起的,不活动组分的变异是体.积亏损造成的。 相似文献
99.
利用500hPa北半球格点资料,参照历史平均东亚大槽位置,定义了东亚冬季风强度指数(I500)。分析发现,近50年东亚冬季风强度有减弱趋势,特别是1987年以来冬季风明显减弱。根据广东48个站1954~2004年前汛期(4~6月)降水资料,用区域旱涝指数W对广东前汛期旱涝等级进行划分。51年内广东有9年前汛期出现大涝(或特涝),11年出现大旱(或特旱),旱涝发生频繁。冬季风异常对广东前汛期降水的影响比较大,强冬季风年后广东前汛期出现大旱的可能性较大,而出现大涝的可能性很小。 相似文献
100.