Solar Flare Prediction Using Advanced Feature Extraction, Machine Learning, and Feature Selection

Novel machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms have been developed to study: i) the flare-prediction-capability of magnetic feature (MF) properties generated by the recently developed Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART); ii) SMART’s MF properties that are most significantly related to flare occurrence. Spatiotemporal association algorithms are developed to associate MFs with flares from April 1996 to December 2010 in order to differentiate flaring and non-flaring MFs and enable the application of machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms. A machine-learning algorithm is applied to the associated datasets to determine the flare-prediction-capability of all 21 SMART MF properties. The prediction performance is assessed using standard forecast-verification measures and compared with the prediction measures of one of the standard technologies for flare-prediction that is also based on machine-learning: Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP). The comparison shows that the combination of SMART MFs with machine-learning has the potential to achieve more accurate flare-prediction than ASAP. Feature-selection algorithms are then applied to determine the MF properties that are most related to flare occurrence. It is found that a reduced set of six MF properties can achieve a similar degree of prediction accuracy as the full set of 21 SMART MF properties.     

On the migration of a system of protoplanets

The evolution of a system consisting of a protoplanetary disc with two embedded Jupiter-sized planets is studied numerically. The disc is assumed to be flat and non-self-gravitating; this is modelled by the planar (two-dimensional) Navier–Stokes equations. The mutual gravitational interaction of the planets and the star, and the gravitational torques of the disc acting on the planets and the central star are included. The planets have an initial mass of one Jupiter mass M _Jup each, and the radial distances from the star are one and two semimajor axes of Jupiter, respectively.
During the evolution a joint wide annular gap is created by the planets. Both planets increase their mass owing to accretion of gas from the disc: after about 2500 orbital periods of the inner planet it has reached a mass of 2.3  M _Jup, while the outer planet has reached a mass of 3.2  M _Jup. The net gravitational torques exerted by the disc on the planets result in an inward migration of the outer planet on time-scales comparable to the viscous evolution time of the disc. The semimajor axis of the inner planet remains constant as there is very little gas left in its vicinity to induce any migration. When the distance of close approach eventually becomes smaller than the mutual Hill radius, the eccentricities increase strongly and the system may become unstable.
If disc depletion occurs rapidly enough before the planets come too close to each other, a stable system similar to our own Solar system may remain. Otherwise the orbits may become unstable and produce systems like υ And.     

The IRAS PSCz dipole

We use the PSC z IRAS galaxy redshift survey to analyse the cosmological galaxy dipole out to a distance of 300  h ¹ Mpc. The masked area is filled in three different ways, first by sampling the whole sky at random, secondly by using neighbouring areas to fill a masked region, and thirdly using a spherical harmonic analysis. The method of treatment of the mask is found to have a significant effect on the final calculated dipole.
The conversion from redshift space to real space is accomplished by using an analytical model of the cluster and void distribution, based on 88 nearby groups, 854 clusters and 163 voids, with some of the clusters and all of the voids found from the PSC z data base.
The dipole for the whole PSC z sample appears to have converged within a distance of 200  h ¹ Mpc and yields a value for , consistent with earlier determinations from IRAS samples by a variety of methods. For b =1, the 2 range for ₀ is 0.431.02.
The direction of the dipole is within 13° of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) dipole, the main uncertainty in direction being associated with the masked area behind the Galactic plane. The improbability of further major contributions to the dipole amplitude coming from volumes larger than those surveyed here means that the question of the origin of the CMB dipole is essentially resolved.     

Modelling the bar in the centre of the starburst galaxy M82

We present VLA A-array 21-cm atomic hydrogen (H  i ) absorption observed against the central region of the starburst galaxy M82 with an angular resolution of ∼1.3 arcsec (≃20 pc). These observations, together with MERLIN H  i absorption measurements, are compared with the molecular (CO) and ionized ([Ne  ii ]) gas distributions and are used to constrain the dynamics and structure of the ionized, neutral and molecular gas in this starburst.
A position–velocity diagram of the H  i distribution reveals an unusual 'hole' feature which, when previously observed in CO, has been interpreted as an expanding superbubble contained within a ring of gas in solid body rotation. However, we interpret this feature as a signature of a nearly edge-on barred galaxy. In addition, we note that the CO, H  i and [Ne  ii ] position–velocity diagrams reveal two main velocity gradients, and we interpret these as gas moving on x₁- and x₂-orbits within a bar potential. We find the best fit to the data to be produced using a bar potential with a flat rotation curve velocity v _b=140 km s⁻¹ and a total length of 1 kpc, a non-axisymmetry parameter q =0.9, an angular velocity of the bar Ω_b=217 km s⁻¹ arcsec⁻¹, a core radius R _c=25 pc, an inclination angle i =80° and a projected angle between the bar and the major axis of the galaxy φ '=4°. We also discuss the orientation of the disc and bar in M82.     

The mass of the Andromeda galaxy

This paper argues that the Milky Way galaxy is probably the largest member of the Local Group. The evidence comes from estimates of the total mass of the Andromeda galaxy (M31) derived from the three-dimensional positions and radial velocities of its satellite galaxies, as well as the projected positions and radial velocities of its distant globular clusters and planetary nebulae. The available data set comprises 10 satellite galaxies, 17 distant globular clusters and nine halo planetary nebulae with radial velocities. We find that the halo of Andromeda has a mass of together with a scalelength of 90 kpc and a predominantly isotropic velocity distribution. For comparison, our earlier estimate for the Milky Way halo is Although the error bars are admittedly large, this suggests that the total mass of M31 is probably less than that of the Milky Way . We verify the robustness of our results to changes in the modelling assumptions and to errors caused by the small size and incompleteness of the data set.
Our surprising claim can be checked in several ways in the near future. The numbers of satellite galaxies, planetary nebulae and globular clusters with radial velocities can be increased by ground-based spectroscopy, while the proper motions of the companion galaxies and the unresolved cores of the globular clusters can be measured using the astrometric satellites Space Interferometry Mission ( SIM ) and Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics ( GAIA ). Using 100 globular clusters at projected radii 20 R 50 kpc with both radial velocities and proper motions, it will be possible to estimate the mass within 50 kpc to an accuracy of 20 per cent. Measuring the proper motions of the companion galaxies with SIM and GAIA will reduce the uncertainty in the total mass caused by the small size of the data set to 22 per cent.     

Submillimetre imaging of NGC 3079

Submillimetre mapping observations of the active edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 3079 are presented. These maps at 850 and 450 μm were made with the Submillimetre Common User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) at the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT).
The source structure at these wavelengths consists of a central unresolved source embedded in diffuse disc emission, similar to that displayed at 1.2 mm. The disc emission is fitted with two optically thin, isothermal dust models which give temperatures of 12 and 31 K, similar to those derived previously by Braine et al. The core component is well described by a single-temperature fit (∼32 K). The combined dust mass from these observations, using the same mass absorption coefficient as Devereux & Young (1990) is 3.5×10⁸ M_⊙, of which ∼90 per cent resides in the cold component of the galactic disc. The effect of the cold dust component detected by SCUBA is thus to reduce the global gas-to-dust mass ratio from ∼1400 found in the above study to 85, very similar to the Galactic level. Calculations using the models of Draine & Lee and/or alternative molecular gas mass estimates yield gas-to-dust mass ratios in the range 60–190.
The data presented here, together with previously published 1.2-mm mapping observations and IRAS data, are inconsistent with detections made with the Infrared Space Observatory ( ISO ). In particular, the latter give an excess of flux at 200 and 180 μm relative to that predicted by our simple model fits (approximately a factor of 2–3).     

New views of Betelgeuse: multi-wavelength surface imaging and implications for models of hotspot generation

We report contemporaneous multi-wavelength interferometric imaging of the red supergiant star Betelgeuse ( α Orionis), using the Cambridge Optical Aperture Synthesis Telescope (COAST) and the William Herschel Telescope (WHT), at wavelengths of 700, 905 and 1290 nm. We find a strong variation in the apparent symmetry of the stellar brightness distribution as a function of wavelength. At 700 nm the star is highly asymmetric, and can be modelled as the superposition of three bright spots on a strongly limb-darkened disc. However, at 905 nm only a single low-contrast feature is visible and at 1290 nm the star presents a featureless symmetric disc. The change in spot contrast with wavelength is consistent with a model in which the bright spots represent unobscured areas of elevated temperature, owing perhaps to convection, on a stellar disc that itself has a different appearance, i.e. geometrical extent and limb-darkening profile, at different wavelengths. The featureless centre-to-limb brightness profile seen at 1290 nm is consistent with this model and suggests that future interferometric monitoring of the star to quantify the size changes associated with radial velocity variations should be performed at similar wavelengths in the near-infrared.     

Photospheric variability of O stars

The characteristics of the line profile variations observed in optical transitions of O-type stars are reviewed. For a few well-observed stars, there is compelling evidence that the variations are due to photospheric velocity fields from one or more modes of nonradial pulsation. However, the origin of the line profile variations observed in most O stars is not yet established. To date, there is little empirical evidence to suggest that the variability in optical absorption lines of O stars is causally linked to the stellar wind variability commonly observed in their UV resonance lines.