An investigation of the controls on Irish precipitation δ18O values on monthly and event timescales

This two-year study investigates the relative influence of meteorological variables (precipitation amount and temperature), atmospheric circulation, air mass history, and moisture source region on Irish precipitation oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸O_p) on event and monthly timescales. Single predictor correlations reveal that on the event scale, 20% of δ¹⁸O_p variability is attributable to the amount effect and 7% to the temperature effect while on the monthly timescale the North Atlantic Oscillation accounts for up to 20% of δ¹⁸O_p variability and the amount and temperature effects are not significant. In comparison, multivariate linear regression reveals that the interaction of temperature and precipitation amount explains up to 40% of δ¹⁸O_p variance at event and monthly timescales. Five-day kinematic back trajectories suggest that the amount-weighted mean δ¹⁸O_p value of southerly- and northerly-derived events are lower by 2‰ relative to events derived from the west. Because air mass history and atmospheric circulation appear to influence δ¹⁸O_p in Ireland, Irish paleo-δ¹⁸O_p proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall.     

The IPCC on a heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period

In their 2007 report, IPCC working group 1 refers to an increased heterogeneity of climate during medieval times about 1000 years ago. This conclusion would be of relevance, as it implies a contrast in the spatial signature and forcing of current warmth to that during the Medieval Warm Period. Our analysis of the data displayed in the IPCC report, however, shows no indication of an increased spread between long-term proxy records. We emphasize the relevance of sample replication issues, and argue that an estimation of long-term spatial homogeneity changes is premature based on the smattering of data currently available.     

Spatial and temporal changes in dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula

Drastic changes were detected in glacial systems of the Antarctic Peninsula in the last decades. The observed phenomena comprise the disintegration of ice shelves, acceleration and thinning of glaciers, and retreat of glacier fronts. However, due to the lack of consistent systematic observations in particular of the higher parts of the glacial systems, it is difficult to predict further responses of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climatic change. The present paper analyses spatial and temporal variations of changes in the dry-snow line altitude on the Antarctic Peninsula as extracted from a time series (1992–2005) of ERS-1/2 SAR and Envisat ASAR data. Upward changes in dry-snow line altitude were observed in general, and are attributed to extreme high-temperature events impacting the central plateaus of the Antarctic Peninsula and the increasing duration of warming periods. A mean decrease in dry-snow line altitude was detected on the west side of the peninsula and is identified as a response to recorded increase in precipitation and accumulation. These results validate the capability of SAR data for deriving superficial parameters of glaciers to be used as indicators of climatic changes in high-latitude regions where operational restrictions limit conventional meteorological observations.     

Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

The integrated assessment models (IAMs) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the “optimal” policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of IAMs. For example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. This practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. IAMs also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth of human lives and ecosystems, while downplaying scientific uncertainty about the extent of expected damages. In addition, IAMs may exaggerate mitigation costs by failing to reflect the socially determined, path-dependent nature of technical change and ignoring the potential savings from reduced energy utilization and other opportunities for innovation. A better approach to climate policy, drawing on recent research on the economics of uncertainty, would reframe the problem as buying insurance against catastrophic, low-probability events. Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum tolerable increase in temperature and/or carbon dioxide levels given the state of scientific understanding. The appropriate role for economists would then be to determine the least-cost global strategy to achieve that target. While this remains a demanding and complex problem, it is far more tractable and epistemically defensible than the cost-benefit comparisons attempted by most IAMs.     

Lander radioscience for obtaining the rotation and orientation of Mars

The paper presents the concept, the objectives, the approach used, and the expected performances and accuracies of a radioscience experiment based on a radio link between the Earth and the surface of Mars. This experiment involves radioscience equipment installed on a lander at the surface of Mars. The experiment with the generic name lander radioscience (LaRa) consists of an X-band transponder that has been designed to obtain, over at least one Martian year, two-way Doppler measurements from the radio link between the ExoMars lander and the Earth (ExoMars is an ESA mission to Mars due to launch in 2013). These Doppler measurements will be used to obtain Mars’ orientation in space and rotation (precession and nutations, and length-of-day variations). More specifically, the relative position of the lander on the surface of Mars with respect to the Earth ground stations allows reconstructing Mars’ time varying orientation and rotation in space.Precession will be determined with an accuracy better by a factor of 4 (better than the 0.1% level) with respect to the present-day accuracy after only a few months at the Martian surface. This precession determination will, in turn, improve the determination of the moment of inertia of the whole planet (mantle plus core) and the radius of the core: for a specific interior composition or even for a range of possible compositions, the core radius is expected to be determined with a precision decreasing to a few tens of kilometers.A fairly precise measurement of variations in the orientation of Mars’ spin axis will enable, in addition to the determination of the moment of inertia of the core, an even better determination of the size of the core via the core resonance in the nutation amplitudes. When the core is liquid, the free core nutation (FCN) resonance induces a change in the nutation amplitudes, with respect to their values for a solid planet, at the percent level in the large semi-annual prograde nutation amplitude and even more (a few percent, a few tens of percent or more, depending on the FCN period) for the retrograde ter-annual nutation amplitude. The resonance amplification depends on the size, moment of inertia, and flattening of the core. For a large core, the amplification can be very large, ensuring the detection of the FCN, and determination of the core moment of inertia.The measurement of variations in Mars’ rotation also determines variations of the angular momentum due to seasonal mass transfer between the atmosphere and ice caps. Observations even for a short period of 180 days at the surface of Mars will decrease the uncertainty by a factor of two with respect to the present knowledge of these quantities (at the 10% level).The ultimate objectives of the proposed experiment are to obtain information on Mars’ interior and on the sublimation/condensation of CO₂ in Mars’ atmosphere. Improved knowledge of the interior will help us to better understand the formation and evolution of Mars. Improved knowledge of the CO₂ sublimation/condensation cycle will enable better understanding of the circulation and dynamics of Mars’ atmosphere.     

The use of Auger spectroscopy for the in situ elemental characterization of sub‐micrometer presolar grains

Abstract— Presolar grains are small samples of stardust that can be found at low abundances in some of the most unaltered types of extraterrestrial materials. While earlier laboratory studies of stardust mainly focused on grain types that can be extracted from bulk meteorites by acid dissolution techniques, such as silicon carbide and graphite, recent analyses of presolar silicates rely on isotope imaging searches for locating these grains in situ. Since presolar silicates are generally less than a micrometer in diameter and represent at best only a few hundred ppm of their host materials (e.g., primitive meteorites or interplanetary dust particles), locating and studying these particles can be analytically challenging. Recently, we began using scanning Auger spectroscopy for the in situ elemental characterization of presolar silicate grains as a complement to NanoSIMS isotopic studies for obtaining spatially matched compositional data. Auger spectroscopy is a well‐established analytical technique for elemental characterizations in the material sciences, but has not been widely used in geological applications. We discuss the application of this technique to sub‐micrometer sized silicate grains and address practical issues such as sample preparation, measurement settings, spatial resolution, data processing, and elemental quantification.     

The dissolved Beryllium isotope composition of the Arctic Ocean

We present the first comprehensive set of dissolved ¹⁰Be and ⁹Be concentrations in surface waters and vertical profiles of all major sub-basins of the Arctic Ocean, which are complemented by data from the major Arctic rivers Mackenzie, Lena, Yenisey and Ob. The results show that ¹⁰Be and ⁹Be concentrations in waters below 150 m depth are low and only vary within a factor of 2 throughout the Arctic Basin (350-750 atoms/g and 9-15 pmol/kg, respectively). In marked contrast, Be isotope compositions in the upper 150 m are highly variable and show systematic variations. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be concentrations range from 150 to 1000 atoms/g and concentrations of terrigenous ⁹Be range from 7 to 65 pmol/kg, resulting in ¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratios (atom/atom) between 0.5 and 14 × 10⁻⁸. Inflowing Atlantic water masses in the Eurasian Basin are characterized by a ¹⁰Be/⁹Be signature of 7 × 10⁻⁸. The inflow of Pacific water masses across the Bering Strait is characterized by lower ratios of 2-3 × 10⁻⁸, which can be traced into the central Arctic Ocean, possibly as far as the Fram Strait. A comparison of the high dissolved surface ¹⁰Be and ⁹Be concentrations (corresponding to low ¹⁰Be/⁹Be signatures of ∼2 × 10⁻⁸) in the Eurasian Basin with hydrographic parameters and river data documents efficient and rapid transport of Be with Siberian river waters across the Siberian Arctic shelves into the central Arctic Basin, although significant loss and exchange of Be on the shelves occurs. In contrast, fresh surface waters from the Canada Basin also show high cosmogenic ¹⁰Be contents, but are not enriched in terrigenous ⁹Be (resulting in high ¹⁰Be/⁹Be signatures of up to 14 × 10⁻⁸). This is explained by a combination of efficient scavenging of Be in the Mackenzie River estuary and the shelves and additional supply of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be via atmospheric fallout and melting of old sea ice. The residence time of Be in the deep Arctic Ocean estimated from our data is 800 years and thus similar to the average Be residence time in the global ocean.     

Impact of climate and CO2 on a millennium-long tree-ring carbon isotope record

We present one millennium-long (1171-year), and three 100 year long annually resolved δ¹³C tree-ring chronologies from ecologically varying Juniperus stands in the Karakorum Mountains (northern Pakistan), and evaluate their response to climatic and atmospheric CO₂ changes. All δ¹³C records show a gradual decrease since the beginning of the 19th century, which is commonly associated with a depletion of atmospheric δ¹³C due to fossil fuel burning. Climate calibration of high-frequency δ¹³C variations indicates a pronounced summer temperature signal for all sites. The low-frequency component of the same records, however, deviates from long-term temperature trends, even after correction for changes in anthropogenic CO₂. We hypothesize that these high-elevation trees show a response to both climate and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the latter might explain the offset with target temperature data. We applied several corrections to tree-ring δ¹³C records, considering a range of potential CO₂ discrimination changes over the past 150 years and calculated the goodness of fit with the target via calibration/verification tests (R², residual trend, and Durbin-Watson statistics). These tests revealed that at our sites, carbon isotope fixation on longer timescales is affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a discrimination rate of about 0.012‰/ppmv. Although this statistically derived value may be site related, our findings have implications for the interpretation of any long-term trends in climate reconstructions using tree-ring δ¹³C, as we demonstrate with our millennium-long δ¹³C Karakorum record. While we find indications for warmth during the Medieval Warm Period (higher than today’s mean summer temperature), we also show that the low-frequency temperature pattern critically depends on the correction applied. Patterns of long-term climate variation, including the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and 20th century warmth are most similar to existing evidence when a strong influence of increased atmospheric CO₂ on plant physiology is assumed.     

Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis reveal multiple carbon inputs to a Precambrian glacial sediment

Extractable biomarkers can help elucidate the environment and biota of ancient glaciations, although the method must be applied with care, as glacial sediments have a potential for incorporation of older detrital carbon. In Phanerozoic glacial sediments, the distinct elemental, molecular and isotopic compositions of the terrestrial and marine biomass allow discrimination between primary marine and redeposited terrestrial organic matter. However, as the Proterozoic biosphere was largely microbial and marine, biomarker and isotopic analyses are insufficient for distinguishing primary organic matter from secondary reworked organic matter. Here, we report the combined application of Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis to Precambrian glacial sediments, which, together, allows discrimination between mixed pools of organic carbon and provides a promising new approach for rapidly screening Precambrian sediments for immature organic matter amenable to biomarker analysis.