Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.     

Changes in heat wave characteristics over Extremadura (SW Spain)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human...     

Observations of Wind-Direction Variability in the Nocturnal Boundary Layer

Large sudden wind-direction shifts and submeso variability under nocturnal conditions are examined using a micrometeorological network of stations in north-western Victoria, Australia. The network was located in an area with mostly homogeneous and flat terrain. We have investigated the main characteristics of the horizontal propagation of events causing the wind-direction shift and not addressed in previous studies. The submeso motions at the study site exhibit behaviour typical of flat terrain, such as the lower relative mesovelocity scale and smaller cross-wind variances than that for complex terrain. The distribution of wind-direction shifts shows that there is a small but persistent preference for counter-clockwise rotation, occurring for 55% of the time. Large wind-direction shifts tend to be associated with a sharp decrease in air temperature (74% of the time), which is associated with rising motion of cold air, followed by an increase in turbulent mixing. The horizontal propagation of events was analyzed using the cross-correlation function method. There is no preferred mean wind direction associated with the events nor is there any relationship between the mean wind and propagation directions. The latter indicates that the events are most likely not local flow perturbations advected by the mean flow but are rather features of generally unknown origin. This needs to be taken into account when developing parametrizations of the stable boundary layer in numerical models.     

Fijian villagers adapt to changes in local fisheries

This paper analyzes some of the problems encountered by a village-run fishing cooperative in rural Fiji. Concern about the limited success of this fishing cooperative led the villagers of Kaba Point, Fiji to ask for biological and socioeconomic studies to determine the roots of the cooperative’s problems. The villagers also required an assessment of their proposal to revitalize the cooperative through a development scheme that would enable them to increase their catch. The surveys, undertaken by researchers from the University of the South Pacific and the Fiji Fisheries Division, indicate that the area has been overfished, primarily through the widespread local and commercial use of gillnets and the reliance on fishing as a sole source of village income, and further expansion of the current resource exploitation patterns would be very damaging. In addition, although the cooperative provides an important sense of communalism in the village, only a few people regularly provide fish to the coop. The semi-subsistence lifestyle of rural Fiji is one factor limiting villagers participation in full-time fishing activities. The traditional social and management structures inherent in this village (especially, marine tenure, chiefly responsibility for the community, and a demonstrated history of communal projects) can form a strong basis for a modern community-based marine management program. However, if not carefully watched, resources can also be locally mismanaged because of the increasing demands of the modern market-driven economy.     

Stress Field Estimations for Colima Volcano, Mexico, Based on Seismic Data

 For first time, during 1991, seismic activity was recorded during an eruption at Colima volcano. We analyze these data to obtain a stress pattern using a composite focal mechanism technique. From the analysis of regional seismicity, the Tamazula Fault and the Armeria River appear as active features and the dip of the slab east of the Jalisco Block is approximately 12°. Southwest of Colima volcano a vertical alignment of seismic events was observed. We estimate five different composite focal mechanism solutions from our data set, which indicate a change of the stress field at the volcano after the 1991 eruption. These solutions suggest that the stress field in the volcanic edifice was controlled by stresses related to the emplacement of magma superimposed on the regional stress field. No evidence of active local faults in the volcanic edifice was found. We propose a model for the eruptive process that involves tilting of the volcanic edifice. Received: 15 October 1995 / Accepted: 26 October 1998     

Flood tide circulation near beaufort inlet, North Carolina: Implications for larval recruitment

Drifter tracks and shipboard CTD observations have revealed a number of distinct features of the flood tide circulation carrying water through Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina. One of the most noteworthy of these features is a nearshore jet in the flow carrying water to the inlet on a flood tide. Characterized by a shoreward increase in longshore flow, the jet produces a narrow coastal zone over which water is carried into the inlet. The jet appears to be principally a tidal phenomenon, as it is closely reproduced by a tidally-driven barotropic numerical model. The model results also indicate the jet may be a near-inlet feature. Model simulations of spring tide conditions show the jet confined to within 4 km of the inlet mouth. Another observed phenomenon, which is reproduced by the tidal model, is a distinct splitting of the flow entering the inlet, in which water passing through a particular inlet segment tends to move up-estuary along a well-defined path. An observed flow feature not reproduced by the tidal model is an eastward skew of the region over which water is drawn into the inlet on a flood tide. This asymmetry is unrelated to the local wind. Modeling results from a previous study suggest it may be due to convergent flow at the edge of the low salinity plume issuing from the inlet. Taken together, the results of this and other recent studies in the Beaufort Inlet region reveal the importance of nearshore currents on the eastern side of the inlet in delivering oceanic-spawned larvae to the estuarine system connected to the inlet.     

Palaeokarst and rauhwacke development,mountain uplift and subaerial sliding of tectonic sheets (northern Sierra de los Filabres,Betic Cordilleras,Spain)

The rauhwackes near Serón in the northern Sierra de los Filabres (S Spain), previously considered as true tectonic breccias, are reinterpreted on the basis of sedimentological, geomorphological and geometrical evidence as subaerial or nearly subaerial sedimentary deposits. Channel fills, parallel lamination, cross-lamination, graded bedding, sedimentary clastic dykes and other sedimentary structures and features occur in the rauhwacke body. These sedimentary rocks correspond to continental deposits of alluvial and karstic origin deposited over a karstified erosional surface of Nevado–Filabride marbles. Although no fossils have been found in the rauhwackes, a Tortonian age for these rocks is suggested on the basis of structural arguments and lithostratigraphic data from the nearby Almanzora basin. The rauhwackes were buried by slabs of Alpujarride rocks that gravitationally slid over them during the uplifting of the Sierra de los Filabres.     

Numerical modeling of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique: the cases of tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997)

The coast of Mozambique is often affected by storms, particularly tropical cyclones during summer or sometimes midlatitude systems in the southern part. Storm surges combined with high freshwater discharge can drive huge coastal floods, affecting both urban and rural areas. To improve the knowledge about the impact of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique, this study presents the first attempt to model this phenomenon through the implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Southwestern Indian Ocean domain (SWIO; 2–32°S, 28–85°E) using a regular grid with 1/6° of spatial resolution and 36 sigma levels. The simulation was performed for the period 1979–2010, and the most interesting events of surges were related to tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) that occurred in the Mozambique Channel. The results showed that the model represented well the amplitude and phase of principal lunar and solar tidal constituents, as well as it captured the spatial pattern and magnitudes of SST with slight positive bias in summer and negative bias in winter months. In terms of SSH, the model underestimated the presence of mesoscale eddies, mainly in the Mozambique Channel. Our results also showed that the atmospheric sea level pressure had a significant contribution to storm heights during the landfall of the tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) in the coast of Mozambique contributing with about 20 and 16% of the total surge height for each case, respectively, surpassing the contribution of the tide-surge nonlinear interactions by a factor of 2.     

Experimental seismic shear force amplification in scaled RC cantilever shear walls with base irregularities

RC structural slender walls under large seismic excitation are expected to reach base moment capacity mainly affected by the first vibration mode. However, the base shear could be affected by higher modes once yielding in flexure has occurred, which might result in base shear underestimation in linear design. In this work, an experimental program is carried out on five RC rectangular walls 1:10 scaled. All five specimens considered irregularities at base, common in construction and one specimen did not consider shear reinforcement or boundary detailing. Tests are carried on a unidirectional shaking table and excitation is based on two Chile earthquake records with different intensities. Damage is concentrated at the wall base for all specimens; primary due to flexure with some participation of shear. For one of the records an average amplification of 1.3 is obtained, and a decrease in height of the resultant equivalent lateral force closes to 0.4 h_w. By increasing the intensity of the input record, amplification grows to an average of 1.7, while it decreases drastically when subjected to input records with low frequency content. No significant difference is observed in shear amplification in specimens with a base central opening, nor with setback, even though the cracking and failure mode was different for such specimens. Ductility demand shows no correlation when two different earthquakes are considered, whereas the frequency content and Arias intensity (I_a) of the input record directly affected the shear amplification.