Site scale modeling of slow-moving landslides,a 3D viscoplastic finite element modeling approach

This paper presents an advanced 3D numerical methodology to reproduce the kinematics of slow active landslides, more precisely, to reproduce the nearly constant strain rate (secondary creep) and the acceleration/deceleration of the moving mass due to hydrological changes. For this purpose, finite element analyses are performed in a large area covering a long time-span (12 years), in order to exhibit different interacting slope movements. First, we perform a stability analysis using the shear strength reduction (SSR) technique with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. It is done in order to compute factors of safety (FS) and to identify two different scenarios, the first one being stable (FS > 1) and the second one being unstable (FS < 1). In the studied test case, the Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees), the first scenario corresponds to an initial stable configuration of the slope and the second one to an unstable excavated configuration. Second, taking the first scenario as an initial condition, a time-dependent analysis is performed using a coupled formulation to model solid skeleton and pore fluids interaction, and a simplified ground water model that takes into account daily rainfall intensity. In this case, a viscoplastic constitutive model based on Perzyna’s theory is applied to reproduce soil viscous behavior and the delayed creep deformation due to the excavation. The fluidity parameter is calibrated to reproduce displacements measured by the monitoring systems. Our results demonstrate that 3D analyses are preferable to 2D ones for reproducing in a more realistic way the slide behavior. After calibration, the proposed model is able to simulate successfully short- and medium-term predictions during stages of primary and secondary creep.     

A Combined Biophysical and Economic GIS Framework to Assess Sugarcane Cropping Potential in Brazil

Recently, the increasing demand for biofuels triggered a new phase for the sugar‐alcohol sector. In Brazil, as well as in other tropical countries, this process raised worries regarding the possible direct and indirect effects of the crop's expansion on the conversion of native vegetation coverings. Therefore, the modeling of spatial‐economic surfaces, representing the potential rent variation in its spatial component, for economic activities, may be a useful tool in the decision‐making process. Hence, here we propose and present the results of a combined framework composed of two modules using the modeling platform Dinamica EGO. The first module simulates sugarcane's growth, calculating the daily response of the crop to environmental conditions during the stages of the plant's development. The second module estimates rents for sugarcane cultivation in Brazil, identifying areas where this activity would bring higher economic return, looking at simulated productivity, production costs and selling prices in a way that is spatially explicit for Brazil. Two different scenarios for production costs were tested, and results ranged from negative values to maxima of R$/ha 929 and R$/ha 1176 for standard and efficient costs of production, respectively. The model successfully indicated non‐profitable and profitable areas, and regions where high expected economic return overlaps endangered ecosystems.     

A new approach to modeling perpendicular fabrics in porphyritic plutonic rocks using the finite element method

A growing body of field evidence indicates that hypersolidus fabrics preserved in syntectonic plutons are likely to have formed in highly crystallized ‘rigid sponge’ magma. This paper demonstrates that such magma could be idealized as a rheological solid and that the development of non-coaxial fabrics in plutonic rocks can very conveniently be modeled in the framework of solid mechanics. Using the finite element method (FEM), we modeled two strain regimes of small magnitudes (plane-strain horizontal simple shear with the shear strain γ of up to 0.30 and plane-strain pure shear of up to 15% shortening) superposed onto vertically oriented and variously spaced elastic phenocrysts set in the viscoelastic matrix. In the simple shear regime, the phenocrysts slightly rotate toward the shear plane, while the principal strain directions in the matrix are instantaneously oriented at an angle of about 45° or less to the phenocryst fabric. Simple shear thus can only lead to the formation of oblique phenocryst and matrix fabrics. By contrast, the vertical phenocryst fabric is maintained in the pure shear regime, and a new horizontal fabric can develop almost instantaneously in the matrix even for small amounts of superposed shortening (5% shortening after 10 ky in our model). We conclude that such a mechanism can easily produce perpendicular hypersolidus fabrics in plutonic rocks and that only a very short time span (first thousands of years) is required to develop magmatic fabric in a pluton for ‘normal’ rates (10⁻¹⁵ to 10⁻¹³ s⁻¹) of tectonic deformation.     

A multi-tracer approach to delineate groundwater dynamics in the Rio Actopan Basin,Veracruz State,Mexico

Geochemistry and environmental tracers were used to understand groundwater resources, recharge processes, and potential sources of contamination in the Rio Actopan Basin, Veracruz State, Mexico. Total dissolved solids are lower in wells and springs located in the basin uplands compared with those closer to the coast, likely associated with rock/water interaction. Geochemical results also indicate some saltwater intrusion near the coast and increased nitrate near urban centers. Stable isotopes show that precipitation is the source of recharge to the groundwater system. Interestingly, some high-elevation springs are more isotopically enriched than average annual precipitation at higher elevations, indicating preferential recharge during the drier but cooler winter months when evapotranspiration is reduced. In contrast, groundwater below 1,200 m elevation is more isotopically depleted than average precipitation, indicating recharge occurring at much higher elevation than the sampling site. Relatively cool recharge temperatures, derived from noble gas measurements at four sites (11–20 °C), also suggest higher elevation recharge. Environmental tracers indicate that groundwater residence time in the basin ranges from 12,000 years to modern. While this large range shows varying groundwater flowpaths and travel times, ages using different tracer methods (¹⁴C, ³H/³He, CFCs) were generally consistent. Comparing multiple tracers such as CFC-12 with CFC-113 indicates piston-flow to some discharge points, yet binary mixing of young and older groundwater at other points. In summary, groundwater within the Rio Actopan Basin watershed is relatively young (Holocene) and the majority of recharge occurs in the basin uplands and moves towards the coast.     

The study of metal contamination in urban topsoils of Mexico City using GIS

This research presents and discusses information concerning the spatial distribution of heavy metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Ba, Co, Cr, Ni and V) in the urban environments of Mexico City using geographical information system and statistical analysis. Superficial soil samples (n = 146) were analyzed. The highest contamination indices were found in the north and center zone of the metropolitan area. In contrast, the surrounding rural fields show a lower impact grade. The higher concentrations of Pb, Cu, Zn and Ba were observed as being related to high vehicular traffic, nevertheless other elements such as Co, Cr, Ni and V do not show anthropogenic influence and their content can be attributed to the parental rock. The results are compared with previous surveys carried out in 2003 in order to evaluate temporal deposition trends. No changes were found on reported concentrations except for Cu and Zn, whose concentration has increased in later years. The results suggest that spatial distribution analysis and results in comparison with previous studies could be useful for the management and sustainable development of the metropolitan area of Mexico City.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.