Complex site effects and building codes: Making the leap

The engineering community is aware of the importance of site effects, but it lags behind seismological studies when it comes to incorporating site effect considerations in design spectra for seismic norms. This lag is reflected in the conspicuous fact that current building codes make allowance for 1D site effects but ignore complex site effects. The purpose of this paper is to explore a way for including complex site effects in a building code environment. We take as example Eurocode 8, which is a modern code that exemplifies the current approach to site effect consideration. We examine the restrictions that we have imposed to make the problem of a feasible size and discuss the approach we have taken. We propose a strategy to incorporate a class of complex site effects in a design elastic spectrum.     

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Bismuth‐melt trails trapped in cassiterite–quartz veins

Native bismuth in the form of metallic melt has been considered instrumental to the formation of some metallic ore deposits via a mechanism dubbed the “Liquid Bismuth Collector Model.” Here, we provide petrographical documentation of trail‐forming, μm‐sized blebs of native bismuth in cassiterite–quartz veins from the Santa Bárbara greisen Sn deposit in the Rondônia tin province of northern Brazil. These inclusions suggest the trapping of a Bi melt that took place during vein formation, in a mechanism similar to the entrapment of fluid inclusions.     

Experimental seismic shear force amplification in scaled RC cantilever shear walls with base irregularities

RC structural slender walls under large seismic excitation are expected to reach base moment capacity mainly affected by the first vibration mode. However, the base shear could be affected by higher modes once yielding in flexure has occurred, which might result in base shear underestimation in linear design. In this work, an experimental program is carried out on five RC rectangular walls 1:10 scaled. All five specimens considered irregularities at base, common in construction and one specimen did not consider shear reinforcement or boundary detailing. Tests are carried on a unidirectional shaking table and excitation is based on two Chile earthquake records with different intensities. Damage is concentrated at the wall base for all specimens; primary due to flexure with some participation of shear. For one of the records an average amplification of 1.3 is obtained, and a decrease in height of the resultant equivalent lateral force closes to 0.4 h_w. By increasing the intensity of the input record, amplification grows to an average of 1.7, while it decreases drastically when subjected to input records with low frequency content. No significant difference is observed in shear amplification in specimens with a base central opening, nor with setback, even though the cracking and failure mode was different for such specimens. Ductility demand shows no correlation when two different earthquakes are considered, whereas the frequency content and Arias intensity (I_a) of the input record directly affected the shear amplification.     

Elucidation of different forms of organic carbon in marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermal analysis coupled to isotope ratio and quadrupole mass spectrometry

Analysis of river, estuary and marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry–quadrupole mass spectrometry–isotope ratio mass spectrometry (TG–DSC–QMS–IRMS) was used to (a) distinguish bulk chemical hosts for C within a sediment and humic acid fraction, (b) track C pools with differing natural C isotope ratios and (c) observe variation with distance from the coast. This is the first application of such a novel method to the characterisation of organic matter from marine sediments and their corresponding humic acid fractions. Using thermal analysis, a labile, a recalcitrant and a refractory carbon pool can be distinguished. Extracted humic fractions are mainly of recalcitrant nature. The proportion of refractory carbon is greatest in marine sediments and humic acid fractions. Quadrupole mass spectrometry confirmed that the greatest proportion of m/z 44 (CO₂) and m/z 18 (H₂O) were detected at temperatures associated with recalcitrant carbon (510–540 °C). Isotope analysis detected progressive enrichment in δ¹³C for the sediment samples with an increase in marine influence. Isotopic heterogeneity in the refractory organic matter in marine sediments could be due to products of anthropogenic origin or natural combustion products. Isotope homogeneity of humic acids confirms the presence of terrigenous C in marine sediments, allowing the terrestrial input to be characterised.     

Early Miocene adakite-like volcanism in the Balkuyumcu region, central Anatolia, Turkey: Petrology and geochemistry

The Balkuyumcu region, located in the southwestern part of Ankara in the Izmir-Ankara suture zone (central Anatolia, Turkey), consists of basic andesitic, andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic rocks extruded during the Early Miocene (20–22 Ma) as a result of post-collisional volcanism. Balkuyumcu volcanic rocks can be divided into two groups on the basis of their mineralogy and composition: The basic andesitic (BA) and andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic (ADR) groups. The ADR and BA group of rocks have adakite-like and calc-alkaline characteristics, respectively. The ADR group has higher SiO₂ content, Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios and low MgO, Mg#, Y and Yb contents than the BA group. Both groups have nearly the same Sr, Nd isotopic compositions and display similar normalized multi-element patterns with enrichments in LILE and LREE, depletions in Nb, Ti, Zr, P and a lack of Eu anomalies. Major, trace element and Sr, Nd isotopic data indicate that both groups of rocks were derived from the same source but affected by different magmatic processes during ascent. The adakite-like rocks may have been produced by partial melting of thickened lower continental crust. Fractional crystallization also played a major role in their formation. However, the BA group rocks were derived from partial melting of lower continental crust that was probably delaminated. These rocks appear to have had limited interaction with mantle peridodite during ascent to the surface.     

The Byers Basin: Jurassic-Cretaceous tectonic and depositional evolution of the forearc deposits of the South Shetland Islands and its implications for the northern Antarctic Peninsula

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the Jurassic–Cretaceous stratigraphic evolution of fore-arc deposits exposed along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. In the South Shetland Islands, Upper Jurassic deep-marine sediments are uncomformably overlain by a Lower Cretaceous volcaniclastic sequence that crops out on Livingston, Snow and Low islands. U-Pb zircon ages are presented for the upper Anchorage Formation (153.1 ± 1.7 Ma) and the Cape Wallace granodiorite of Low Island (137.1 ± 1.7 Ma) as well as ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 136–139 Ma for Low Island andesites. Data are also presented for a U-Pb age of 109.0 ± 1.4 Ma for the upper volcanic succession of Snow Island. In combination with published stratigraphy, these data provide a refined chrono- and litho-stratigraphic framework for the deposits herein referred to as the Byers Basin. Tentative correlation is explored with previously described deposits on Adelaide and Alexander islands, which could suggest further continuation of the Byers Basin towards the south. We also discuss possible correlation of the Byers Basin with the Larsen Basin, a sequence that shows the evolution of foreland to back-arc deposits more or less contemporaneously with the fore-arc to intra-arc evolution of the Byers Basin.     

Phytoplankton production and seasonal biomass variation of seagrass,Ruppia maritima L., in a tropical Mexican lagoon with an ephemeral inlet

Plankton metabolism andRuppia maritima biomass were measured seasonally during 1982–83 in El Verde Lagoon, a small coastal lagoon with an ephemeral inlet on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Total net aquatic primary production was 521 g C m^?2 y^?1. The water column was slightly heterotrophic, with an annual P/R ratio of 0.89. Our analysis indicates that tropical and subtropical coastal lagoons with restricted or seasonal inlets have generally higher net aquatic primary productivity levels than lagoons with permanently open inlets. We hypothesize that this is due to retention of nutrients and plankton stocks during the dry season. The seasonal pattern of water column metabolism was related to rainfall and riverflow, with higher values generally occurring during the wet season. Net production and respiration were about three times lower during the 1982 dry season as compared to the 1983 dry season which received considerable rains due to abnormal climatic conditions. The biomass ofR. maritima ranged from zero to 620 g dry wt m^?2. Growth occurred only during the dry season and there were two distinct biomass peaks representing two separate crops. The second crop was heavily epiphytized with nitrogen-fixing algae. There was an apparent succession in dominance of water column productivity over the year, withRuppia dominating during the dry season and phytoplankton more important during the wet season.