Estimation of uranium endowment by subjective geological analysis—a comparison of methods and estimates for the San Juan Basin,New Mexico

This study investigates how estimates of uranium endowment made by a geologist using an appraisal system that is based upon a formalization of geoscience and decision rules compare with estimates made by informal and unconstrained intuitive processes. The motivation for this study derives from the premise that formalization of decisions would mitigate the heuristic biases and hedging that may result from the use of unconstrained intuitive processes. Estimates of the uranium endowment of the San Juan Basin of New Mexico by four methodologies are compared in this study. These methods, ranked from top to bottom by degree of decomposition (mitigating of heuristic bias)and control on hedging, are as follows Implicit 2 1.5 × 10⁶ s.t. of U₃O₈ Implicit 1 1.6 × 10⁶ s.t. of U₃O₈ NURE (1980) 2.4 × 10⁶ s.t. of U₃O₈ Appraisal system 3.9 × 10⁶ s.t. of U₃O₈ The magnitude of expected uranium endowment estimated by these methods, ranked from smallest to largest, is in this same order. With the exception of the NURE estimates, the magnitude of the variance (uncertainty)of uranium endowment, ranked from smallest to largest, also is in this same order. These results prompt the suggestion that the more decomposed and formalized the estimation procedure, the greater the expected value and the variance of uranium endowment. Equivalently, predicating U ₃ O ₈ endowment estimation strictly upon that part of the geologist's geoscience that is useful in making U ₃ O ₈ endowment estimates and upon his understanding of the region's history produced larger estimates than have previously been reported. However, this method of estimation also shows that uncertainty about the actual state of U ₃ O ₈ endowment is much greater than previously described.     

Naturally Enhanced Ion-Acoustic Spectra And Their Interpretation

Incoherent scatter radars are designed to detect scatter from thermalfluctuations in the ionosphere. These fluctuations contain, among other things,features associated with ion-acoustic waves driven by random motions within theplasma. The resulting spectra are generally broad and noisy, but neverthelessthe technique can, through a detailed analysis of spectra, be used to measure arange of physical parameters in the Earth's upper atmosphere, and provides apowerful diagnostic in studies of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,thermosphere dynamics and the geospace environment in general. In recent yearsthere has been much interest in naturally occurring (as opposed to artificiallystimulated) enhanced ion-acoustic spectra seen in the auroral zone andcusp/cleft region. A study of the plasma instability processes that lead tosuch spectra will help us to better understand auroral particle acceleration,wave-particle and wave-wave interactions in the ionosphere, and theirassociation with magnetospheric processes. There is now a substantial body ofliterature documenting observations of enhanced ion-acoustic spectra, but thereremains controversy over generation mechanisms. We present a review ofliterature documenting observations of naturally enhanced ion-acoustic spectra,observed mainly along the geomagnetic field direction, along with a discussionof the theories put forward to explain such phenomena.     

Moment tensor inversion of some aftershocks of the April 18, 1985 Luquan earthquake of Yunnan Province, China

Based on the three component accelerograms, recorded at near-field distance by a temporary seismic network consisting of digital cassette tape recording accelerographs, the focal mechanisms of three aftershocks of the April 18, 1985, Luquan, Yunnan Province, China, earthquake ofM _S=6.1, are calculated using seismic moment tensor inversion technique. The phases of direct P, S and converted SP waves in the displacement seismograms, produced by twice integrations of the observed accelerograms, are identified via forward calculation using Green’s functions for homogeneous semi-infinite elastic medium, and used in the inversion. The results of inversion show that a better fit of synthetic to the observed seismograms of direct as well as converted phases can be achieved if appropriate weighting functions are used in solving the over definite linear equations. While these aftershocks are of different magnitudes (M _L=4.8, 3.2 and 3.5, respectively) and hypocentral locations, their focal mechanisms are very similar and consistent with that of the main shock. This feature demonstrates the intrinsic correlation between the occurrence of aftershocks and the seismogenic fault of main shock. Our experimentations show that using the near field accelerogram obtained from the digital seismic network with appropriate azimuthal coverage on the focal sphere, with the aid of even simple medium model, not only the shear dislocation source, but also the isotropic part and CLVD (compensated linear vector dipole) can be retrieved by the technique of moment tensor inversion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 412–419, 1991. This work is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Sciences Foundation and the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Site (WYEPTS), State Seismological Bureau.     

Land degradation impacts on tropical agricultural basins and their management: the Nigerian example

This study uses the fault-tree technique to identify the major effects of land degradation caused by the adoption of a malfunctioning shifting cultivation technology for food production in tropical basins. Through reference to existing empirical research, the sequence of events in the process of degradation of the Nigerian agricultural basins and the adjoining river systems was identified and related to the appropriate causal agent. A complete picture of the cost of land degradation goes beyond the degraded terrain and includes damage in areas where there is an unloading of large quantities of run-off and sediments. The causal pathway showed that existing land degradation management policies have focused on the symptoms rather than on the cause of the degradation process. Through a thorough examination of those malfunctioning components of the traditional farming technology, appropriate management strategies are proferred. An institutional organization for land degradation management in Nigeria which includes the federal, state and local governments is strongly recommended.     

The phase velocities of Rayleigh waves and the lateral variation of lithospheric structure in Tibetan Plateau

According to a Sino-U. S. joint project, eleven broadband digital PASSCAL seismometers had been deployed inside the Tibetan Plateau, of which 7 stations were on the profile from Lhasa to Golmud and other 4 stations situated at Maxin, Yushu, Xigatze and Linzhi. Dispersions and phase velocities of the Rayleigh surface waves (10s–120s) were obtained on five paths distributed in the different blocks of Tibetan Plateau. Inversions of the S-wave velocity structures in Songpan-Ganzi block, Qiang-Tang block, Lhasa block and the faulted rift zone were obtained from the dispersion data. The results show that significant lateral variation of the S-wave velocity structures among the different blocks exists. The path from Wenquan to Xigatze (abbreviated as Wndo-Xiga) passes through the rift-zone of Yadong-Anduo. The phase velocities of Rayleigh waves from 10s to 100s on this path are significantly higher than that on other paths. The calculated mean crustal velocity on this path is 3.8 km/s, much greater than that on other paths, where mean crustal velocities of 3.4–3.5 km/s are usually observed. Low velocity zones with different thicknesses and velocities are observed in the middle-lower crust for different paths. Songpan-Ganzi block, located in the northern part of Tibetan Plateau is characterized by a thinner crust of 65 km thick and a prominent low velocity zone in the upper mantle. The low velocity zone with a velocity of 4.2 km/s is located at a depth form 115 km to 175 km. While in other blocks, no low velocity zone in the upper mantle is observed. The value of Sn in Songpan-Ganzi is calculated to be 4.5 km/s, while those in Qiang-Tang and Lhasa blocks are about 4.6 km/s. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, Supp., 566–573, 1992.     

Preliminary study of crust-upper mantle structure of the Tibetan Plateau by using broadband teleseismic body waveforms

As part of a joint Sino-U.S. research project to study the deep structure of the Tibetan Plateau, 11 broadband digital seismic recorders were deployed on the Plateau for one year of passive seismic recording. In this report we use teleseimic P waveforms to study the seismic velocity structure of crust and upper mantle under three stations by receiver function inversion. The receiver function is obtained by first rotating two horizontal components of seismic records into radial and tangential components and then deconvolving the vertical component from them. The receiver function depends only on the structure near the station because the source and path effects have been removed by the deconvolution. To suppress noise, receiver functions calculated from events clustered in a small range of back-azimuths and epicentral distances are stacked. Using a matrix formalism describing the propagation of elastic waves in laterally homogeneous stratified medium, a synthetic receiver function and differential receiver functions for the parameters in each layer can be calculated to establish a linearized inversion for one-dimensional velocity structure. Preliminary results of three stations, Wen-quan, Golmud and Xigatze (Coded as WNDO, TUNL and XIGA), located in central, northern and southern Plateau are given in this paper. The receiver functions of all three stations show clear P-S converted phases. The time delays of these converted phases relative to direct P arrivals are: WNDO 7.9s (for NE direction) and 8.3s (for SE direction), TUNL 8.2s, XIGA 9.0s. Such long time delays indicate the great thickness of crust under the Plateau. The differences between receiver function of these three station shows the tectonic difference between southern and north-central Plateau. The waveforms of the receiver functions for WNDO and TUNL are very simple, while the receiver function of XIGA has an additional midcrustal converted phase. The S wave velocity structures at these three stations are estimated from inversions of the receiver function. The crustal shear wave velocities at WNDO and TUNL are vertically homogeneous, with value between 3.5–3.6 km/s down to Moho. This value in the lower crust is lower than the normal value for the lower crust of continents, which is consistent with the observed strong Sn attenuation in this region. The velocity structure at XIGA shows a velocity discontinuity at depth of 20 km and high velocity value of 4.0 km/s in the midcrust between 20–30 km depth. Similar results are obtained from a DSS profile in southern Tibet. The velocity under XIGA decreases below a depth of 30 km, reaching the lowest value of 3.2 km/s between 50–55 km. depth. This may imply that the Indian crust underthrusts the low part of Tibetan crust in the southern Plateau, forming a “double crust”. The crustal thickness at each of these sites is: WNDO, 68 km; TUNL, 70 km; XI-GA, 80 km. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, Supp., 581–592, 1992.