Nonlinear seismic behaviour of wall-frame dual systems accounting for soil–structure interaction

The aim of this paper is to study the effects of soil–structure interaction on the seismic response of coupled wall-frame structures on pile foundations designed according to modern seismic provisions. The analysis methodology based on the substructure method is recalled focusing on the modelling of pile group foundations. The nonlinear inertial interaction analysis is performed in the time domain by using a finite element model of the superstructure. Suitable lumped parameter models are implemented to reproduce the frequency-dependent compliance of the soil-foundation systems. The effects of soil–structure interaction are evaluated by considering a realistic case study consisting of a 6-storey 4-bay wall-frame structure founded on piles. Different two-layered soil deposits are investigated by varying the layer thicknesses and properties. Artificial earthquakes are employed to simulate the earthquake input. Comparisons of the results obtained considering compliant base and fixed base models are presented by addressing the effects of soil–structure interaction on displacements, base shears, and ductility demand. The evolution of dissipative mechanisms and the relevant redistribution of shear between the wall and the frame are investigated by considering earthquakes with increasing intensity. Effects on the foundations are also shown by pointing out the importance of both kinematic and inertial interaction. Finally, the response of the structure to some real near-fault records is studied. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distributions-oriented wind forecast verification by a hidden Markov model for multivariate circular–linear data

Winds from the North–West quadrant and lack of precipitation are known to lead to an increase of PM10 concentrations over a residential neighborhood in the city of Taranto (Italy). In 2012 the local government prescribed a reduction of industrial emissions by 10% every time such meteorological conditions are forecasted 72 h in advance. Wind forecasting is addressed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric simulation system by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. In the context of distributions-oriented forecast verification, we propose a comprehensive model-based inferential approach to investigate the ability of the WRF system to forecast the local wind speed and direction allowing different performances for unknown weather regimes. Ground-observed and WRF-forecasted wind speed and direction at a relevant location are jointly modeled as a 4-dimensional time series with an unknown finite number of states characterized by homogeneous distributional behavior. The proposed model relies on a mixture of joint projected and skew normal distributions with time-dependent states, where the temporal evolution of the state membership follows a first order Markov process. Parameter estimates, including the number of states, are obtained by a Bayesian MCMC-based method. Results provide useful insights on the performance of WRF forecasts in relation to different combinations of wind speed and direction.     

Landslide HotSpot Mapping by means of Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Landslide detection and mapping represent fundamental requirements for every hazard and risk evaluation and consequent improvement of the management strategies for such natural hazards. Optical and radar remote sensing can be used to observe landslide-induced ground deformation, ranging from regional to local scales. This work presents a methodology called Landslide HotSpot Mapping; this approach integrates cartographic, thematic and optical data with Persistent Scatterer Interferometry for the identification of extremely slow to very slow moving landslides, and for the evaluation of their state of activity and intensity. This methodology scans wide areas to detect hotspots, which are narrow unstable zones characterized by higher landslide hazard. To these hotspots, priority has to be given when planning field surveys and in situ validation campaigns, so that field work time and effort can be optimized and significantly reduced. The approach is tested in Central Calabria, over a 4,470?km² area located in southern Italy. ENVISAT ascending images acquired between 2003 and 2009 and processed with the Persistent Scatterer Pairs (PSP) technique are used to analyse deformation patterns. Combining conventional photo-interpretation with the analysis of PSP data, 64 new landslides are identified and the spatial (boundaries) and temporal (activity) information of 980 pre-mapped phenomena (23.6% of updated inventory) are updated. 1,012 active (continuous or reactivated) landslides are identified and 4 hotspot areas selected: San Fili, Rende, Lago, Catanzaro. Urgent field checks have to be organized for these hotspots to validate the satellite-based observations and to design appropriate mitigation measures to reduce impacts on the elements at risk.     

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10  years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.     

Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.     

Evidence for enhanced hydration on the northern flank of Olympus Mons, Mars

In this paper we report about a small region on the northern scarp of Olympus Mons showing an increase of the 3 μm hydration band in the OMEGA spectra, together with low superficial temperatures. Although water ice clouds can occurs on the flank of big martian volcanoes, radiative transfer modeling indicates that atmospheric water ice alone cannot justify the shape of the observed band. A fit of the 1.9–3 μm absorption features is obtained by hypothesizing that the study region consists of a mixture of dust and water ice covered by an optically thin (τ=0.08 at 3 μm) layer of dust. Thermal modeling also suggests that water ice in this region may be stable during most of the martian year due to the saturation of the atmosphere. If water ice is responsible for the observed spectral behavior, it might consist of a number of ice or snow patches possibly deposited in small depressions.     

Estimation of load reduction factors for clay masonry walls

The in‐plane cyclic behaviour of three types of unreinforced clay masonry was characterized by means of laboratory tests on full‐scale specimens. The masonry walls were assembled with various bonding arrangements (head joints made with mortar pockets, dry head joints with mechanical interlocking, thin‐layer mortar bed joints), which are not yet inserted in seismic codes. Experimental behaviour was modelled with an analytical hysteretic model able to predict lateral load–displacement curves in case of shear failure of the unreinforced walls. According to the experimental results and those of the selected analytical model, parametric study to evaluate the reduction in lateral strength demand produced by non‐linear behaviour in masonry walls, i.e. the load reduction factor was carried out by non‐linear dynamic analyses. The calculated values of the load reduction factor were modest. The differences in values found for the three masonry types, although consistent with them, were not great. This may indicate that, in the ultimate limit state, the type of masonry cannot significantly affect the behaviour of an entire building. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

UVES Abundances of Stars in Nearby Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a galaxy in possession of a good quantity of gas must want to form stars. It is the details of how and why that baffle us all. The simplest theories either would have this process a carefully self-regulated affair, or one that goes completely out of control and is capable of wrecking the galaxy which hosts it. Of course the majority of galaxies seem to amble along somewhere between these two extremes, and the mean properties tend to favour a quiescent self-regulated evolutionary scenario. But there area variety of observations which require us to invoke transitory ‘bursts’ of star-formation at one time or another in most galaxy types. Several nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies have clearly determined star-formation histories with apparent periods of zero star formation followed by periods of fairly active star formation. If we are able to understand what separated these bursts we would understand several important phenomena in galaxy evolution. Were these galaxies able to clear out their gas reservoir in a burst of star formation? How did this gas return? or did it? Have these galaxies receieved gas from the IGM instead? Could stars from these types of galaxy contribute significantly to the halo population in our Galaxy? To answer these questions we need to combine accurate stellar photometry and Colour-Magnitude Diagram interpretation with detailed metal abundances to combine a star-formation rate versus time with a range of element abundances with time. Different elements trace different evolutionary process (e.g., relative contributions of type I and II supernovae). We often aren't even sure of the abundance spread in these galaxies. We have collected detailed high resolution UVES spectra of four nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies (Sculptor, Fornax, Leo I &; Carina) to begin to answer these questions. This is a precursor study to a more complete study with FLAMES. We presented at this meeting the initial results for the Sculptor and Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxies which have been previously had single element (low resolution) calcium abundance studies (Tolstoy et al., 2001). See Figures 1 and 2.