Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...     

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.     

Spatio-temporal variability of small copepods (especially Oithona plumifera) in shallow nearshore waters off the south coast of South Africa

Although small copepods are one of the main dietary sources for many commercially important fish, their role in the pelagic trophic dynamics has traditionally been underestimated due to the methodology commonly used in plankton sampling. Temporal variation in abundance of adults and nauplii of small copepods (particularly Oithona plumifera) in nearshore waters on the south coast of South Africa was investigated fortnightly over 14 months at site (km) and location (100 m) scales. Sampling was within <500 m of the shore, where depth was ca. 10 m, using vertical hauls of an 80-μm mesh plankton net from 1 m above the seabed to the surface. Twenty-seven adult copepod taxa were recorded, but Oithona spp. was consistently the most abundant. Taxon richness was 7–19 on each sampling occasion. There was strong temporal variation (Oithona varied between 0 and 2300 m⁻³), but much of this was short-term variability (e.g. between consecutive sampling sessions), with no seasonality or other long-term discernable patterns. There were periods of consistently low numbers, but very high numbers often followed samples with low abundances. Nor was there spatial structure at the location scale, though numbers differed between sites. Despite considerable variability at the location scale within sites, Kenton consistently showed higher densities than High Rocks. Separate analyses, with Bonferroni adjustment, showed that this difference was significant on eight out of 21 occasions for Oithona, six for other pelagic copepods and three for nauplii. This suggests that hydrodynamics favour aggregation of plankton at Kenton. A high degree of short-term variability, with a tendency for aggregation of small zooplankton at certain sites has implications for both pelagic processes and food-web links between the benthic and pelagic environments.     

The interaction between regional and local tectonics during resurgent doming: the case of the island of Ischia, Italy

The volcanic island of Ischia is located on the Tyrrhenian margin of Central Italy, characterized by Plio-Quaternary NW–SE- and NE–SW-trending extensional fractures. Ischia displays a resurgent dome uplifted by at least 800 m in the last 33 ka. Remote sensing and field data have been collected to study the structural setting of the island, the deformation pattern associated with resurgence and the superimposition of the regional and the resurgence-induced stress fields. NW–SE and NE–SW extensional fracture systems predominate throughout the island and around the resurgent block, suggesting a relationship with the regional extensional structures. These systems were formed before resurgence and were partly reactivated during resurgence. The reactivation of pre-existing regional systems during resurgence confined the extent of the uplifted area. N–S- and E–W-trending systems have been found exclusively at the borders of the dome and are interpreted as being induced by resurgence. The topmost resurgent block shows an octagonal shape in map view and is tilted at an angle of 15° around a NE–SW-trending horizontal axis; the block is partly bordered by high-angle, inward-dipping regional faults. More than 90% in volume of the volcanic products coeval with resurgence on Ischia have been erupted outside the resurgent block area, suggesting that the resurgence process locally replaced volcanic activity in the last 33 ka.     

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.     

Digital mapping of coastal boulders – high-resolution data acquisition to infer past and recent transport dynamics

Coastal boulder fields provide clues to long-term frequency-magnitude patterns of coastal flooding events and have the potential to play an important role in coastal hazard assessment. Mapping boulders in the field is time and labour-intensive, and work on intertidal reef platforms, as in the present study, is physically challenging. By addressing coastal scientists who are not specialists in remote sensing, this contribution reports on the possibilities and limitations of digital applications in boulder mapping in Eastern Samar, Philippines, where recent supertyphoons Haiyan and Hagupit induced high waves, coastal flooding and boulder transport. It is demonstrated how satellite imagery of sub-metre resolution (from Pléiades and WorldView-3 imagery) enables efficient analysis of transport vectors and distances of larger boulders, reflecting variation in latitudes of both typhoon tracks and approaching angles of typhoon-generated waves. During the investigated events, boulders with a-axes of up to 8 m were clearly identified to have been shifted for up to 32 m, mostly along the seaward margin of the boulder field. It is, however, hard to keep track of smaller boulders, and the length of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation is often impossible to map with sufficient accuracy. Orthophotographs and digital surface models created through the application of an unmanned aerial vehicle and the ‘Structure from Motion’ technique provide ultra-high-resolution data, and have the potential to not only improve the results of satellite image analysis, but also those from field mapping and may significantly reduce overall time in the field. Orthophotographs permit unequivocal mapping of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation, while precise values for c-axes can be derived from the respective digital surface models. Volume of boulders is best inferred from boulder-specific Structure from Motion-based three-dimensional models. Battery power, flight speed and altitude determine the limits of the area covered, while patches shielded by the boulders are difficult to resolve. For some tasks, field mapping remains mandatory and cannot be replaced by currently available remote sensing tools: for example, sampling for rock type, density and age dating, recording of lithological separation of boulders from the underlying geological unit and of geomorphic features on a millimetre to decimetre-scale, or documentation of fine-grained sediment transport in between the boulders in supratidal settings. In terms of future events, the digital products presented here will provide a valuable reference to track boulder transport on a centimetre to decimetre-scale and to better understand the hydrodynamics of extreme-wave events on a fringing reef coastline.