Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy

Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.     

The ophiolite of Oman and United Arab Emirates

Marine Geophysical Research -     

Environmental controls on clay mineralogy of an Early Jurassic mudrock (Blue Lias Formation,southern England)

We present a dataset including clay mineralogy, gamma-ray spectrometry, organic matter content and magnetic susceptibility of the Hettangian to lowest Sinemurian successions of Dorset and Somerset, southern UK (Blue Lias Formation, Bristol Channel and Wessex basins). In both areas, the clay assemblages comprise predominantly detrital illite, kaolinite and illite/smectite mixed layers. Clays probably originated from the erosion of the Hercynian massifs, the relative proportions of kaolinite and illite being modulated by arid-humid climatic fluctuations. The organic matter (OM) content (types II to IV) ranges up to 12% in both areas. A clear stratigraphical trend in clay mineral assemblages is apparent in Somerset, whereas in Dorset sharp contrasts between adjacent horizons and a greater dilution by carbonate mask the long-term evolution. Correlations between both areas based on similar vertical trends in clay mineral abundance support the suggestion of a hiatus within the angulata Zone of the Dorset succession. As expected, the kaolinite/illite ratio correlates with the Th/K ratio deduced from gamma-ray spectrometry. However, significant departures from the correlation occur in OM-rich intervals, suggesting that Th may be partly adsorbed on to OM particles. Surprisingly, high magnetic susceptibility correlates with abundant kaolinite, not with Fe-rich clays, indicating either that kaolinite is accompanied by a soil-inherited magnetisable phase (possibly iron oxide) or that illite-rich rocks are more strongly diluted by carbonate than are kaolinite-rich strata.     

Decoupling of arsenic and iron release from ferrihydrite suspension under reducing conditions: a biogeochemical model

High levels of arsenic in groundwater and drinking water are a major health problem. Although the processes controlling the release of As are still not well known, the reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides has so far been a favorite hypothesis. Decoupling between arsenic and iron redox transformations has been experimentally demonstrated, but not quantitatively interpreted. Here, we report on incubation batch experiments run with As(V) sorbed on, or co-precipitated with, 2-line ferrihydrite. The biotic and abiotic processes of As release were investigated by using wet chemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and genomic techniques. The incubation experiments were carried out with a phosphate-rich growth medium and a community of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria under strict anoxic conditions for two months. During the first month, the release of Fe(II) in the aqueous phase amounted to only 3% to 10% of the total initial solid Fe concentration, whilst the total aqueous As remained almost constant after an initial exchange with phosphate ions. During the second month, the aqueous Fe(II) concentration remained constant, or even decreased, whereas the total quantity of As released to the solution accounted for 14% to 45% of the total initial solid As concentration. At the end of the incubation, the aqueous-phase arsenic was present predominately as As(III) whilst X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated that more than 70% of the solid-phase arsenic was present as As(V). X-ray diffraction revealed vivianite Fe(II)₃(PO₄)₂.8H₂O in some of the experiments. A biogeochemical model was then developed to simulate these aqueous- and solid-phase results. The two main conclusions drawn from the model are that (1) As(V) is not reduced during the first incubation month with high Eh values, but rather re-adsorbed onto the ferrihydrite surface, and this state remains until arsenic reduction is energetically more favorable than iron reduction, and (2) the release of As during the second month is due to its reduction to the more weakly adsorbed As(III) which cannot compete against carbonate ions for sorption onto ferrihydrite. The model was also successfully applied to recent experimental results on the release of arsenic from Bengal delta sediments.     

Chromium speciation in oxide-type compounds: application to minerals,gems, aqueous solutions and silicate glasses

Cr K-edge XANES spectra were obtained for a variety of Cr-bearing model compounds containing Cr(II), Cr(III), Cr(IV), Cr(V) and Cr(VI), in which the Cr-site symmetry is D4h, Oh and Td. The centroid position of the pre-edge feature is a better indicator of the Cr valence than the edge position. In Cr-rich oxides, higher-energy transitions must be excluded in order to refine a robust valence for Cr. The pre-edge for chromates is not unique and varies as a function of the CrO₄ ^2? moiety distortion, which is often related to Cr-polymerization (monochromate vs. dichromate). Both the analogy with the Mn K-pre-edge information and ab initio FEFF calculations of the pre-edge feature for Cr(III) and Cr(VI) confirm the experimental trends. This methodology is applied to the Cr K-edge pre-edge feature collected in gems (emerald, spinel and ruby), the layered minerals fuchsite and kämmererite, two Cr-bearing aqueous solutions and a set of sodo-calcic silicate glasses used for bottling sparkling white wine. In emerald and fuchsite, the Cr-site is differently distorted than its ruby or spinel counterpart. In a Cr(III)-bearing aqueous solution and sodo-calcic glass, no evidence for Cr(III) with Td and C3v symmetry is detected. However, minor amounts of chromate moieties (most likely monomeric) are detected in a glass synthesized in air. Preliminary spectra for the wine bottle glass suggest that only trace amounts of chromates might possibly be present in these glasses.     

Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse for climate change impact studies at the catchment or site-specific scales. To overcome this problem, both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods have been developed. Each downscaling method has its advantages and drawbacks, which have been described in great detail in the literature. This paper evaluates the improvement in statistical downscaling (SD) predictive power when using predictors from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) over a GCM for downscaling site-specific precipitation. Our approach uses mixed downscaling, combining both dynamic and statistical methods. Precipitation, a critical element of hydrology studies that is also much more difficult to downscale than temperature, is the only variable evaluated in this study. The SD method selected here uses a stepwise linear regression approach for precipitation quantity and occurrence (similar to the well-known Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and called SDSM-like herein). In addition, a discriminant analysis (DA) was tested to generate precipitation occurrence, and a weather typing approach was used to derive statistical relationships based on weather types, and not only on a seasonal basis as is usually done. The existing data record was separated into a calibration and validation periods. To compare the relative efficiency of the SD approaches, relationships were derived at the same sites using the same predictors at a 300km scale (the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis) and at a 45km scale with data from the limited-area Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven by NCEP data at its boundaries. Predictably, using CRCM variables as predictors rather than NCEP data resulted in a much-improved explained variance for precipitation, although it was always less than 50?% overall. For precipitation occurrence, the SDSM-like model slightly overestimated the frequencies of wet and dry periods, while these were well-replicated by the DA-based model. Both the SDSM-like and DA-based models reproduced the percentage of wet days, but the wet and dry statuses for each day were poorly downscaled by both approaches. Overall, precipitation occurrence downscaled by the DA-based model was much better than that predicted by the SDSM-like model. Despite the added complexity, the weather typing approach was not better at downscaling precipitation than approaches without classification. Overall, despite significant improvements in precipitation occurrence prediction by the DA scheme, and even going to finer scales predictors, the SD approach tested here still explained less than 50?% of the total precipitation variance. While going to even smaller scale predictors (10–15?km) might improve results even more, such smaller scales would basically transform the direct outputs of climate models into impact models, thus negating the need for statistical downscaling approaches.     

The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL–CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley–Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke’s convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel’s scheme improves the representation of the Hadley–Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke’s parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model.     

The stratospheric version of LMDz: dynamical climatologies, arctic oscillation, and impact on the surface climate

A climatology of the stratosphere is determined from a 20-year integration with the stratospheric version of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model LMDz. The model has an upper boundary at near 65 km, uses a Doppler spread non-orographic gravity waves drag parameterization and a subgrid-scale orography parameterization. It also has a Rayleigh damping layer for resolved waves only (not the zonal mean flow) over the top 5 km. This paper describes the basic features of the model and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first order diagnostics are presented but some emphasis is given to the model’s ability to reproduce the low frequency variability of the stratosphere in the winter northern hemisphere. In this model, the stratospheric variability is dominated at each altitudes by patterns which have some similarities with the arctic oscillation (AO). For those patterns, the signal sometimes descends from the stratosphere to the troposphere. In an experiment where the parameterized orographic gravity waves that reach the stratosphere are exaggerated, the model stratosphere in the NH presents much less variability. Although the stratospheric variability is still dominated by patterns that resemble to the AO, the downward influence of the stratosphere along these patterns is near entirely lost. In the same time, the persistence of the surface AO decreases, which is consistent with the picture that this persistence is linked to the descent of the AO signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere. A comparison between the stratospheric version of the model, and its routinely used tropospheric version is also done. It shows that the introduction of the stratosphere in a model that already has a realistic AO persistence can lead to overestimate the actual influence of the stratospheric dynamics onto the surface AO. Although this result is certainly model dependent, it suggests that the introduction of the stratosphere in a GCM also call for a new adjustment of the model parameters that affect the tropospheric variability.     

Explicit solutions of the three-dimensional inverse problem of dynamics,using the frenet reference frame

Given a two-parameter of three-dimensional orbits, we construct the unit tangent vector, the normal and the binormal which define the Frenet reference frame. In this frame, by writing that the force is conservative, we explicitly obtain the potential as a function of the energy along the trajectories and of its derivatives.Observatoire de Besançon