A regional climate model for the western United States

A numerical approach to modeling climate on a regional scale is developed whereby large-scale weather systems are simulated with a global climate model (GCM) and the GCM output is used to provide the boundary conditions needed for high-resolution mesoscale model simulations over the region of interest. In our example, we use the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM1) and the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 4 (MM4) to apply this approach over the western United States (U.S.). The topography, as resolved by the 500-km mesh of the CCM1, is necessarily highly distorted, but with the 60-km mesh of the MM4 the major mountain ranges are distinguished. To obtain adequate and consistent representations of surface climate, we use the same radiation and land surface treatments in both models, the latter being the recently developed Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Our analysis emphasizes the simulation at four CCM1 points surrounding Yucca Mountain, NV, because of the need to determine its climatology prior to certification as a high-level nuclear waste repository.We simulate global climate for three years with CCM1/BATS and describe the resulting January surface climatology over the western U.S. The details of the precipitation patterns are unrealistic because of the smooth topography. Selecting five January CCM1 storms that occur over the western U.S. with a total duration of 20 days for simulation with the MM4, we demonstrate that the mesoscale model provides much improved wintertime precipitation patterns. The storms in MM4 are individually much more realistic than those in CCM1. A simple averaging procedure that infers a mean January rainfall climatology calculated from the 20 days of MM4 simulation is much closer to the observed than is the CCM1 climatology. The soil moisture and subsurface drainage simulated over 3–5 day integration periods of MM4, however, remain strongly dependent on the initial CCM1 soil moisture and thus are less realistic than the rainfall. Adequate simulation of surface soil water may require integrations of the mesoscale model over time periods.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. of up to several months or longer.     

Hydrogeological and geochemical study of the springs in San Severino Lucano territory (Southern Italy)

A hydrogeological and geochemical study is presented for the San Severino Lucano region of southern Italy. In this region, groundwater circulation occurs in rocks lithologically different from one another (metaophiolites, carbonate rocks, etc.). Many springs drain this region. The Frido springs are the most important both for their great volume of flow and for their water quality. A water balance estimated for the recharge area of the Frido springs suggests that during the period 1938–1958 the evapotranspiration represents 54.8 percent, runoff 21.2 percent, and infiltration to groundwater 34 percent of rainfall. The springs studied have a meteoric origin and their waters are mostly acid carbonate-alkaline earth type. The reservoir rocks appear to be the only discriminating factors for the chemical composition of the waters analysed.     

引发意大利托斯卡纳区滑坡的区域降水阈值体系的定义——统计与环境分析(英文)

The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region(Italy).The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration(D) and intensity(I).I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable:it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding.That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds,but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system.Therefore,further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality,magnitude,location,land use and lithology.None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold.This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest ap-proach,in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall pa-rameters(I and D).So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach:four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.     

Italian accelerometric archive: geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations at strong-motion stations

Geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations, for the characterization of the strong-motion recording sites managed by the Italian Civil Protection, have been carried out in the framework of the project “Italian strong-motion database in the period 1972–2004”. The project aimed at creating an updated database of strong-motion data acquired in Italy by different institutions in the time span 1972–2004, and at improving the quality of disseminated data. This article illustrates the state of the recording site characterization before the beginning of the project, explains the criteria adopted to select the sites where geophysical/geotechnical investigation have been performed and describes the results of the promoted field surveys.     

A BPR approach to hydrogeological risk management

Every year, landslides and floods cause deaths, missing persons, injured people, evacuees, and homeless people. Serious damages to property and pollution are also produced. Lessons learn from landslides and flood disasters recently occurred show that flood and disaster management should be widely improved. This paper deals the problem of hydrogeological risk management from a logistic and a managerial point of view. The hydrological risk management is studied as an industrial process, and it is modeled by the IDEF0 language. The IDEF0 application provides a clear overview of the system and became a structured base for the re-engineering process. For each function of the process, the inputs, outputs, and necessary controls and resources have been identified. The use of the IDEF0 provides a simple and effective tool for the decision-making process. Starting from a realistic and efficient current state model, the process of re-engineering has been implemented. The main aim of the change introduced in the process is to improve the information management that it is a crucial point of the risk management.     

Metamorphic conditions and structural evolution of the Kesebir-Kardamos dome: Rhodope metamorphic complex (Greece-Bulgaria)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The synmetamorphic nappe system of the Rhodope Metamorphic Complex has been deformed into dome-and-basin structures attributed to syn- to post-convergent...     

RegCM3对东亚环流和中国气候模拟能力的检验

使用RegCM3区域气候模式,嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15年（1987～2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验,分析了模式对东亚平均环流及中国地区气温和降水的模拟。结果表明,模式对东亚平均环流的特征和中国地区降水、地面气温的年、季地理分布和季节变化特征均具有一定的模拟能力,对气温和降水年际变率的模拟也较好。此外模式模拟在测站稀少地区,可以提供局地如降水分布更可靠的信息。模式对气温的模拟存在1-3℃的系统性冷偏差;对中国地区降水地理分布的模拟也存在一定偏差,如对年平均降水的模拟中,降水最大值位置与观测有一定差距,特别是对冬季降水中心的模拟存在较大偏差。模式模拟的夏季降水,在中国北方地区总体偏大100-200 mm,南方总体偏小100-200 mm。模式对地面气温的模拟效果好于降水。     

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2 °C of global warming (relative to the late-20th-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21st-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.     

全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟

对一个20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来不同强度降水事件变化进行了分析。以日降水量的大小,将降水划分为不同等级。首先检验了模式对当代(1961—1990年)各等级降水日数的模拟能力,结果表明,与观测相比,模式模拟的小雨事件偏多而大雨事件在南方过少。21世纪末(2071—2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国区域不同强度降水的变化在各地表现不同,同时其对各个地区降水总量变化的贡献也表现出较大不同,但在大部分地区,模式给出了未来强降水事件将增加的结果。     

温室效应引起的中国区域气候变化的数值模拟Ⅱ:中国区域气候的可能变化

使用RegCM2区域气候模式单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海-气耦合模式,进行了温室气体CO2加倍对中国气候变化影响的数值试验研究。该文为第2部分,对敏感性试验结果进行的分析。分析表明:由于温室效应,中国区域的地面气温特别是在冬季和北方将有明显升高,区域年平均的升高值为2.5℃;同时区域内日最高和最低气温将明显上升,日较差将减小。结果还表明,在CO2倍增条件下,中国区域降水将呈增加趋势,区域年平均的增加值为12％;以夏季的增加率最大,其次为冬季。中国汛期降水将呈现出“三类雨型”出现频率增多的趋势。南方的大雨日数将有所增加。此外,生成和影响中国的台风数目也将有所增加。温室气体的增加同时对环流场产生影响,如导致500 hPa高度场的升高。