Exploring lava‐flow hazards at Pico Island,Azores Archipelago (Portugal)

Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30‐km‐long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava‐flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision‐making in territorial management and future land‐use planning.     

Simultaneous estimation of noise and signal in cosmic microwave background experiments

To correctly analyse data sets from current microwave detection technology, one is forced to estimate the sky signal and experimental noise simultaneously. Given a time-ordered data set we propose a formalism and method for estimating the signal and associated errors without prior knowledge of the noise power spectrum. We derive the method using a Bayesian formalism and relate it to the standard methods; in particular we show how this leads to a change in the estimate of the noise covariance matrix of the sky signal. We study the convergence and accuracy of the method on two mock observational strategies and discuss its application to a currently-favoured calibration procedure.     

Ontogenic shifts in predatory roles involving two invasive species

The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, and the eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki have been introduced worldwide, but the interactions between these invasive species are not well known. The effects of crayfish presence, crayfish size and water depth on the consumption of G. holbrooki by P. clarkii were analyzed, as were the effects of mosquitofish presence and water depth on the consumption of recently hatched crayfish (RHC) by mosquitofish. To better understand this subject we conducted aquaria and open air mesocosm experiments simulating a rice field section. Aquarium experiments showed that P. clarkii consumes G. holbrooki and that G. holbrooki consumes RHC. Adult crayfish size did not significantly affect the consumption of mosquitofish and water depth had no effect on the consumption of G. holbrooki by P. clarkii and vice versa. In the outdoor mesocosm experiments P. clarkii caused no statistically significant effect on G. holbrooki numbers or biomass when compared with controls without crayfish. In spite of this, the analysis of crayfish stomach contents clearly demonstrated that several G. holbrooki individuals were consumed, indicating that crayfish can profit from the presence of G. holbrooki. Results from our study suggest that in shallow pools there are strong interactions between the two invasive species since adult crayfish predate mosquitofish and mosquitofish predate recently hatched crayfish. Therefore, there are bidirectional trophic interactions between these invasive species which change depending on their relative size. We believe that these interactions should become more relevant in confined areas such as small shallow pools formed during the late summer and autumn.     

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.     

A geospatial framework to estimate depth of scour under buildings due to storm surge in coastal areas

Hurricanes and tropical storms represent one of the major hazards in coastal communities. Storm surge generated by strong winds and low pressure from these systems have the potential to bring extensive flooding in coastal areas. In many cases, the damage caused by the storm surge may exceed the damage from the wind resulting in the total collapse of buildings. Therefore, in coastal areas, one of the sources for major structural damage could be due to scour, where the soil below the building that serves as the foundation is swept away by the movement of the water. The existing methodologies to forecast hurricane flood damage do not differentiate between the different damage mechanisms (e.g., inundation vs. scour). Currently, there are no tools available that predominantly focus on forecasting scour-related damage for buildings. Such a tool could provide significant advantages for planning and/or preparing emergency responses. Therefore, the focus of this study was to develop a methodology to predict possible scour depth due to hurricane storm surges using an automated ArcGIS tool that incorporates the expected hurricane conditions (flow depth, velocity, and flood duration), site-specific building information, and the associated soil types for the foundation. A case study from Monmouth County (NJ), where the scour damages from 2012 Hurricane Sandy were recorded after the storm, was used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed forecasting tool and to relate the scour depth to potential scour damage. The results indicate that the developed tool provides relatively consistent results with the field observations.     

Estuarine ecological risk based on hepatic histopathological indices from laboratory and in situ tested fish

Juvenile Senegalese soles were exposed through 28-day laboratory and field (in situ) bioassays to sediments from three sites of the Sado estuary (W Portugal): a reference and two contaminated by metallic and organic contaminants. Fish were surveyed for ten hepatic histopathological alterations divided by four distinct reaction patterns and integrated through the estimation of individual histopathological condition indices. Fish exposed to contaminated sediments sustained more damage, with especial respect to regressive changes like necrosis. However, differences were observed between laboratory- and field-exposed animals, with the latest, for instance, exhibiting more pronounced fatty degeneration and hepatocellular eosinophilic alteration. Also, some lesions in fish exposed to the reference sediment indicate that in both assays unaccounted variables produced experimental background noise, such as hyaline degeneration in laboratory-exposed fish. Still, the field assays yielded results that were found to better reflect the overall levels of contaminants and physico-chemical characteristics of the tested sediments.     

Complex size-dependent habitat associations in potamodromous fish species

Knowledge of the distribution of species life stages at multiple spatial scales is fundamental to both a proper assessment of species management and conservation programmes and the ability to predict the consequences of human disturbances for river systems. The habitat requirements of three native cyprinid species—the Iberian barbel Barbus bocagei Steindachner, the Iberian straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma polylepis (Steindachner), and the Northern straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense (Coelho)—were examined at 174 undisturbed or minimally disturbed sites in 8 river catchments across western Iberia, by modelling occurrence and counts of species life stages at two spatial scales—large (regional) and instream (local)—using hurdle models. All the life stages of the barbel showed a negative association with upstream high-gradient river reaches, whereas juvenile P. duriense favoured such areas. Stream width and openness were negatively related with the occurrence of juvenile and small adult barbel, but not with large adults. Juvenile nase, on the other hand, were found to be mainly confined to fast-flowing habitats with high instream cover and coarser substrata. Advanced life stages of the barbel were mainly associated with the “pure” regional and shared components, whereas the purely local attributes accounted for much of the model variation among nases, in particular juveniles, and juvenile barbel. The results of this study are useful for setting or refining management goals, and highlight the need to separately consider life stages when performing conservation-related studies of species distribution.     

The effect of long-term depuration on levels of oxidative stress biomarkers in mullets (Mugil cephalus) chronically exposed to contaminants

The present study aimed to obtain additional data on the effect of long-term depuration on the levels of oxidative stress biomarkers, and to clarify the role of mullets for monitoring pollution in River Douro estuary. Mullets chronically exposed to a mixture of contaminants in Douro estuary were captured in Spring of 2001, 2002 and 2003. The activities of antioxidant enzymes catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPX); and oxidative damages in lipids (lipid peroxidation) and in proteins (protein carbonyl content) were assessed at capture day and after transfer to unpolluted seawater for 1, 4 and 8 months. An overall decrease in the activities of the antioxidant enzymes was detected, except for the GPX after 4 months depuration. CAT activity exhibited the more significant decrease at the end of the long-term depuration. The decrease in SOD activity after 1 month of depuration was then maintained during the remaining depuration period. Regarding oxidative damages, a decrease in lipid peroxidation as well as the content of oxidised proteins was observed during depuration. Indeed, at capture the activities of antioxidant defences were higher as a result of the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from the metabolism of pollutants. The oxidative damaged molecules were repaired or degraded during the depuration period, supporting the use of such damages as indicators of exposure to pro-oxidant pollutants.