Analysis of the goodness of empirical approaches in predicting explosive detonation parameters

Goodness of empirical models for predicting explosive detonation velocity and pressure was analysed using 3 databases consisting of experimental velocity and pressure measurements for different explosives. The first database was used to estimate experimental errors for detonation velocity and pressure measurements. The second database was used to compare residuals obtained by the experimental models and by various thermochemical codes. Finally, the third database, consisting of some 600 data on 130 explosive substances, was used to estimate residual bias and dispersion resulting from the application of the experimental models. Also analysed was model coherence with the ideal detonation theory. Our main conclusion is that all the models introduce bias in their predictions depending on the density and oxygen balance values of the explosive. Of those analysed, the Xiong model was notable for its good results, with residual dispersion comparable to that obtained from application of the best thermochemical codes. Our results would indicate that the Xiong model is the only model that may be compatible with the ideal detonation theory. The pressure equation derived from the ideal detonation theory and calibrated with experimental data had excellent predictive capacity.     

Seismotectonics of south-west Dominican Republic using recent data

The Dominican Republic has a high level of seismic activity, and a new seismic network has been installed to improve the detection of earthquakes. The network has been operated by Instituto Politécnico Loyola since 2012. It uses six new stations of its own, as well as 17 other stations publically available. In this study, we investigate in particular the south-west of the country where no seismic stations have been operating before. We find an area, SE of the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (responsible for the 2010 Haiti M7.0 earthquake), with a high seismic activity (M?=?2–4) compared to the surrounding area. This shallow seismicity (except two events around 40 km depth) is not seen in any global catalogs, and it does not seem to be associated with any known faults. However, the region has been under rapid recent uplift since margins between hills and valleys are filled with massive alluvial fans. We made 24 new fault plane solutions using P-polarities and S/P amplitude ratios. The solutions show mainly reverse mechanisms and the P-axis directions are mainly NNE oriented, which is in agreement with a published strain direction from GPS measurements. We conclude that the main cause of the seismicity in our study area is the push of the Beata Ridge against Enriquillo basin and the rest of the Gonave microplate, reflected in the mainly reverse focal mechanisms.     

Stability analysis in nonstationary spatial covariance estimation

Space deformation modelling and estimation techniques based on Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) methods play an important role in nonparametric approaches to the covariance structure analysis of the spatiotemporal processes underlying environmental studies. Since any related procedure depends on the planar MDS representation, the stability of the estimated dispersion, together with the determination of the most influential stations in the estimation of the dispersion space, are important issues that must be analysed before performing the final mapping. In this paper, stability analysis, both in terms of the MDS model and of the variogram function, as well as concerning the derivation of kriging interpolation estimates, is addressed using a special analytical jackknife procedure. Furthermore, the influence of each station in the solution given is assessed, thus providing relevant information regarding not only the MDS procedure but also the interpolation process and the variogram estimation of the spatial dispersion.     

Systematic increase in model complexity helps to identify dominant streamflow mechanisms in two small forested basins

This study shows how the use of increasing model complexity allows us to hypothesize about dominant streamflow mechanisms in two small Brazilian forested basins. Nine different structures from SUPERFLEX, an objective framework to systematically increase hydrological model complexity, were tested and we extended the flexible modelling methodology to error models as well. We show that applying a rigorous methodology in a model evaluation framework, with residual analysis and control of model complexity, is essential for testing a model as a hypothesis for dominant hydrological controls. Our results indicate that the model architecture was more important than the increase in the number of model parameters. Better performing models were those with a parallel structure, which confirms our a priori belief about the dominant runoff mechanisms of the studied catchments, characterized by a rapid response to rainfall, but also a constant river discharge fed by water storage on the thick soil layer.     

Precipitation as a proxy for climate variables: application for hydrological modelling

It has been proposed that linear regression curves can be used to estimate monthly climate variables from observed precipitation. This approach was explored by applying the MGB hydrological model to the Paraná Basin (Brazil). Linear regressions were obtained for 54 climate gauges, and most of them showed at least six months of significant correlation between monthly climate variables (sunlight hours and relative humidity) and precipitation. The regression equations were applied to 5201 raingauges to estimate monthly climate variables and evapotranspiration, and the results were compared with a scenario using long-term climate averages only. The main differences occurred in wetter periods, where negative correlations between monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration were obtained when using precipitation as a proxy. Long-term changes in the hydrological regime were assessed and showed that the effect of precipitation on relative humidity and sunlight hours seems to have a minor effect on the alterations observed in river discharge in the Paraná Basin.     

Forecasting annual precipitation to improve the operation of dams in the Comahue region,Argentina

ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to design statistical models to forecast annual precipitation in the Neuquen and Limay river basins in the Comahue region of Argentina. These forecasts are especially useful as they are used to better organize the operation of hydro-electric dams, the agriculture in irrigated valleys and the safety of the population. In this work, multiple linear regression statistical models are built to forecast mean annual rainfall over the two river basins. Since the maximum precipitation occurs in the winter (June–August), forecasting models have been developed for the beginning of March and for the beginning of June, just before the rainy season starts. The results show that the sea-surface temperatures of the Indian and Pacific oceans are good predictors for March models and explain 42.8% of the precipitation index variance. The efficiency of the models increases in June, adding more predictors related to the autumn circulation.     

Using InSAR to identify hydrological connectivity and barriers in a highly fragmented wetland

Hydrological connectivity is a critical determinant of wetland functions and health, especially in wetlands that have been heavily fragmented and regulated by human activities. However, investigating hydrological connectivity in these wetlands is challenging due to the costs of high-resolution and large-scale monitoring required in order to identify hydrological barriers within the wetlands. To overcome this challenge, we here propose an interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-based methodology to map hydrologic connectivity and identify hydrological barriers in fragmented wetlands. This methodology was applied along 70 transects across the Baiyangdian, the largest freshwater wetland in northern China, using Sentinel 1A and 1B data, covering the period 2016–2019. We generated 58 interferograms providing information on relative water level changes across the transects that showed the high coherence needed for the assessment of hydrological connectivity. We mapped the permanent and conditional (temporary) barriers affecting connectivity. In total, 11% of all transects are permanently disconnected by hydrological barriers across all interferograms and 58% of the transects are conditionally disconnected. Areas covered by reed grasslands show the most undisturbed hydrological connectivity while some of these barriers are the result of ditches and channels within the wetland and low water levels during different periods of the year. This study highlights the potential of the application of Wetland InSAR to determine hydrological connectivity and location of hydrological barriers in highly fragmented wetlands, and facilitates the study of hydrological processes from large spatial scales and long-time scales using remote sensing technique.     

Tidal and annual variability of the population structure of Eurytemora affinis in the middle part of the Seine Estuary during 2005

Annual variability in abundance and population structure of the copepod Eurytemora affinis was studied in the maximum turbidity zone of the Seine Estuary in 2005. An Eulerian sampling strategy was applied monthly from March to July and from September to December. Chlorophyll a and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, copepod abundance and stage distribution, and phytoplankton abundance were measured in sub-surface and near-bottom water during the ebb phase. Total E. affinis abundance was at a maximum in March and April (>200 × 10³ ind. m⁻³), and decreased from May to September (<25 × 10³ ind. m⁻³). This decrease corresponds to annual increases in temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a concentration and phytoplankton abundance, which was dominated by large diatoms, and decreases in SPM and river discharge. The phenology observed in 2005 was almost two months earlier compared to previous studies in the 1990s, when E. affinis reached maximum abundance in May and June. The low proportion of nauplii (<50%) in the population and high abundance of ovigerous females suggests that low recruitment is probably related to anomalously low temperatures in late winter (<5 °C). Whatever the horizontal position of the population in the estuary, adult and late copepodid stages are distributed in higher salinity than naupliar stages. Overall E. affinis population abundance was driven by parameters that characterize water masses at the tidal scale and by river discharge and chlorophyll a at the annual scale. By integrating the tidal effect, the high-frequency sampling protocol used appears to be optimal for investigating annual variability of planktonic communities in megatidal estuaries.     

Geostatistical Simulation of Acoustic Log Data for Seismic Depth Conversion

Seismic reflection methods measure the time a seismic wave takes to travel through the ground, from the user defined source to a series of signal monitoring sensors known as geophones. The measured times need to be depth converted to allow for integration with other geological data. In order to convert from time to depth, an estimate of the rock volume velocity field must be made. The velocity field estimate can be made by assignment of velocity estimates to a geological model independent of the seismic processing. This article presents the results of using the acoustic geophysical log data extrapolated via sequential Gaussian simulation to derive the velocity field. The uncertainties associated with the velocity estimates were significant and provided the means to assess confidence limits for the actual depth determination. The technique is assessed by application to a major coal deposit, approximately 2.1 m thick and 210 m deep. Considering only the uncertainty associated with estimating the velocity field, half of the confidence interval values showed approximately 1 m of uncertainty in depth. The application of sequential Gaussian simulation to model the 3D distribution of acoustic velocity can be extended to other geophysical log parameters or derived estimates.