Identification of forcing mechanisms of convective initiation over mountains through high-resolution numerical simulations

正Convection and its ensuing severe weather,such as heavy rainfall,hail,tornado,and high wind,have significant impacts on our society and economy(e.g.,Cao et al.,2004;Fritsch and Carbone,2004;Verbout et al.,2006;Ashley and Black,2008;Cao,2008;Cao and Ma,2009;Zhang et al.,2014).Due to its localized and transient nature,the initiation of convection or convective initiation remains one of the least     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

A comprehensive classification of anomalous circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes in South China

Based on observational precipitation at 63 stations in South China and NCEP NCAR reanalysis data during 1951 2010,a cluster analysis is performed to classify large-scale circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes(PPEs) that are independent of the influence of tropical cyclones(TCs).Conceptual schematics depicting configurations among planetary-scale systems at different levels are established for each type.The PPEs free from TCs account for 38.6%of total events,and they tend to occur during April August and October,with the highest frequency observed in June.Corresponding circulation patterns during June August can be mainly categorized into two types,i.e.,summer-Ⅰ type and summer-Ⅱtype.In summer-Ⅰ type,the South Asian high takes the form of a zonal-belt type.The axis of upstream westerly jets is northwest-oriented.At the middle level,the westerly jets at midlatitudes extend zonally.Along the southern edge of the westerly jet,synoptic eddies steer cold air to penetrate southward;the Bay of Bengal(BOB) trough is located to the north;a shallow trough resides over coastal areas of western South China;and an intensified western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) extends westward.The anomalous moisture is mainly contributed by horizontal advection via southwesterlies around 20°N and southeasterlies from the southern flange of the WPSH.Moisture convergence maximizes in coastal regions of eastern South China,which is the very place recording extreme precipitation.In summer-Ⅱ type,the South Asian high behaves as a western-center type.The BOB trough is much deeper,accompanied by a cyclone to its north;and a lower-level trough appears in northwestern parts of South China.Different to summer-Ⅰ type,moisture transport via southwesterlies is mostly responsible for the anomalous moisture in this type.The moisture convergence zones cover Guangdong,Guangxi,and Hainan,matching well with the areas of flooding.It is these set combinations among different systems at different levels that trigger PPEs in South China.     

Retrieval of atmospheric temperature and moisture vertical profiles from satellite Advanced Infrared Sounder radiances with a new regularization parameter selecting method

Considering the characteristics of nonlinear problems, a new method based on the L-curve method and including the concept of entropy was designed to select the regularization parameter in the one-dimensional variational analysis-based sounding retrieval method. In the first iteration, this method uses an empirical regularization parameter derived by minimizing the entropy of variables. During subsequent iterations, it uses the L-curve method to select the regularization parameter in the vicinity of the regularization parameter selected in the last iteration. The new method was employed to select the regularization parameter in retrieving atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder radiance measurements selected from the first day of each month in 2008. The results show that compared with the original L-curve method, the new method yields 5.5% and 2.5% improvements on temperature and relative humidity profiles, respectively. Compared with the discrepancy principle method, the improvements on temperature and relative humidity profiles are 1.6% and 2.0%, respectively.     

An algorithm to retrieve precipitation with synthetic aperture radar

This paper presents a new type of rainfall retrieval algorithm, called the model-oriented statistical and Volterra integration. It is a combination of the model-oriented statistical (MOS) and Volterra integral equation (VIE) approaches. The steps involved in this new algorithm can be briefly illustrated as follows. Firstly, information such as the start point and width of the rain is obtained through pre-analysis of the data received by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Secondly, the VIE retrieval algorithm is employed over a short distance to obtain information on the shape of the rain. Finally, the rain rate can be calculated by using the MOS retrieval algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is effective and simple, and can lead to time savings of nearly 50% compared with MOS. An example of application of SAR data is also discussed, involving the retrieval of precipitation information over the South China Sea.     

Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报

基于ECMWF、JMA、T639、WRF四个数值模式2012年6月1日—9月30日地面气温3—60 h预报资料和郑州加密自动站资料,利用多模式集合平均(EMN)、消除偏差集合平均(BREM)、加权消除偏差集合(WBREM)及多模式超级集合(SUP)4种方法,对2012年8月29日—9月27日郑州城区11个站点地面逐3 h气温进行多模式集成预报试验,采用绝对误差对预报结果进行检验评估,结果表明:在30天的预报期内,BREM、WBREM及SUP对于大多数站气温预报效果有明显改善,而EMN方案对11个站预报效果改善则不太明显;4种方案中,BREM和WBREM预报效果相对较好且稳定,各个站上3—60 h预报的绝对误差均在2℃附近或以下;SUP方案虽然对个别站预报误差较低,但是其预报效果并不稳定,一些站点的个别预报时效误差大于2℃。对于郑州观测站的气温预报而言,4种集成方案20时起报的气温误差明显小于08时起报的误差,并且20时起报的SUP集成方案绝对误差明显小于其他方案的绝对误差。总体而言,BREM、WBREM及SUP三种集成方案能够给郑州精细化预报业务提供较好的参考。     

应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.