Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year^?1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1–16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by ?10.2 to ?2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed.     

Reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior using finite difference method and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monte Carlo</Emphasis> simulation

Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained) and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts.     

Using a Thermal Proxy to Examine Sediment–Water Exchange in Mid-Continental Shelf Sandy Sediments

Fluid exchange across the sediment–water interface in a sandy open continental shelf setting was studied using heat as a tracer. Summertime tidal oscillation of cross-shelf thermal fronts on the South Atlantic Bight provided a sufficient signal at the sediment–water interface to trace the advective and conductive transport of heat into and out of the seabed, indicating rapid flushing of ocean water through the upper 10–40 cm of the sandy seafloor. A newly developed transport model was applied to the in situ temperature data set to estimate the extent to which heat was transported by advection rather than conduction. Heat transported by shallow 3-D porewater flow processes was accounted for in the model by using a dispersion term, the depth and intensity of which reflected the depth and intensity of shallow flushing. Similar to the results of past studies in shallower and more energetic nearshore settings, transport of heat was greater when higher near-bed velocities and shear stresses occurred over a rippled bed. However, boundary layer processes by themselves were insufficient to promote non-conductive heat transport. Advective heat transport only occurred when both larger boundary layer stresses and thermal instabilities within the porespace were present. The latter process is dependent on shelf-scale heating and cooling of bottom water associated with upwelling events that are not coupled to local-scale boundary layer processes.     

Dynamical evolution properties of debris flows controlled by different mesh-sized flexible net barriers

Because the flexible net barrier is a gradually developed open-type debris-flow counter-measure, there are still uncertainties in its design criterion. By using several small-scale experimental flume model tests, the dynamical evolution properties of debris flows controlled by large and small mesh-sized (equal to D₉₀ and D₅₀, respectively) flexible net barriers are studied, including the debris flow behaviors, segregation, and permeability of sediments, as well as the energy absorption rates and potential overtopping occurring when debris flows impact the small mesh-sized one. Experimental results reveal that (a) two sediment deposition patterns are observed depending on variations in debris flow textures and mesh sizes; (b) the aggregation against flexible net barriers is dominated by flow dynamics; (c) the segregation and permeable functions of the barrier are determined by the mesh size, concentration, and flow dynamics; and (d) the smaller mesh-sized flexible net barrier tends to be more efficient in restraining more turbulent debris flows and can absorb greater rate of kinematic energy, and finally, the great kinematic energy dissipation that occurs when secondary debris flows interact with the post-deposits in front of the small mesh-sized flexible net barrier is believed to cause the failure of overtopping phenomenon. The mesh size is concluded to be the decisive parameter that should be associated with debris flow textures to design the control functions of flexible net barriers.     

Thin accretion disc with a corona in a central magnetic field

We study the steady-state structure of an accretion disc with a corona surrounding a central, rotating, magnetized star. We assume that the magneto-rotational instability is the dominant mechanism of angular momentum transport inside the disc and is responsible for producing magnetic tubes above the disc. In our model, a fraction of the dissipated energy inside the disc is transported to the corona via these magnetic tubes. This energy exchange from the disc to the corona which depends on the disc physical properties is modified because of the magnetic interaction between the stellar magnetic field and the accretion disc. According to our fully analytical solutions for such a system, the existence of a corona not only increases the surface density but reduces the temperature of the accretion disc. Also, the presence of a corona enhances the ratio of gas pressure to the total pressure. Our solutions show that when the strength of the magnetic field of the central neutron star is large or the star is rotating fast enough, profiles of the physical variables of the disc significantly modify due to the existence of a corona.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Origin of CO2 gas from the north depression of the middle fault zone in the Hailar-Tamtsag Basin and natural gas in nearby depressions

Natural gas pools with the high contents of CO2 were discovered during exploring the middle fault zone of the Hailar-Tamtsag Basin. So far this kind of gas reservoir with CO2 with characteristics of carbon isotope is spe-cial. The stable carbon isotope of CO2 in the study area is relatively light with δ13 CCO2 values ranging from -13.1‰ to -8.2‰. The 40Ar/36Ar values of associated argon gas range from 916 to 996, with R/Ra of 1.20-1.26. Based on comprehensive analysis, it is believed that the CO2 gas in this study area is of crust mantle source.     

Action mechanism of geotextile-reinforced cushion under breakwater on soft ground

Various measures including material experiments, centrifuge modeling tests and FEM numerical analyses were performed to study systematically the action mechanism of the geotextile-reinforced cushion under breakwater on soft ground and the effects of the strata characterization and the reinforcement condition on the stability of the breakwater-ground system. In the aspect of controlling the deformation, the geotextile-reinforced cushion under breakwater constrains the lateral displacement of both the embankment and the ground. From the viewpoint of stress, the reinforcement suppressed the range of high stress level in the system. In general, the weaker the ground is and the greater the modulus of the geotextile is, the more effective the reinforcement is. The tensile force in the geotextile is greater in the range of the main part of the embankment.     

Seasonal variations in the speciation of dissolved iodine in the Chesapeake Bay

The speciation of dissolved iodine and the distributions of the iodine species in the deep Chesapeake Bay underwent seasonal variations in response to changes in the prevailing redox condition. In the deep water, the ratios of iodate to iodide and iodate to inorganic iodine decreased progressively from the Winter through the Summer as the deep water became more poorly oxygenated before they rebounded in the Fall when the deep water became re-oxygenated again. The composition of the surface water followed the same trend. However, in this case, the higher biological activities in the Spring and the Summer could also have enhanced the biologically mediated reduction of iodate to iodide by phytoplankton and contributed to the lower ratios found during those seasons. Superimposed on this redox cycle was a cycle of input and removal of dissolved iodine probably as a result of the interactions between the water column and the underlying sediments. Iodine was added to the Bay during the Summer when the deep water was more reducing and removed from the Bay in the Fall when the deep water became re-oxygenated. A third cycle was the inter-conversion between inorganic iodine and ‘dissolved organic iodine’, or ‘‘DOI’’. The conversion of inorganic iodine to ‘DOI’ was more prevalent in the Spring. As a result of these biogeochemical reactions in the Bay, during exchanges between the Bay and the North Atlantic, iodate-rich and ‘DOI’-poor water was imported into the Bay while iodide- and ‘DOI’-rich water was exported to the Atlantic. The export of iodide from these geochemically reactive systems along the land margins contributes to the enrichment of iodide in the surface open oceans.