A comparative study of landslide susceptibility mapping using weight of evidence,logistic regression and support vector machine and evaluated by SBAS-InSAR monitoring: Zhouqu to Wudu segment in Bailong River Basin,China

The determining of landslide-prone areas in mountainous terrain is essential for land planning and hazard mitigation. In this paper, a comparative study using three statistical models including weight of evidence model (WoE), logistic regression model (LR) and support vector machine method (SVM) was undertaken in the Zhouqu to Wudu segment in the Bailong River Basin, Southern Gansu, China. Six conditionally independent environmental factors, elevation, slope, aspect, distance from fault, lithology and settlement density, were selected as the explanatory variables that may contribute to landslide occurrence based on principal component analysis (PCA) and Chi-square test. The relation between landslide distributions and these variables was analyzed using the three models and the results then used to calculate the landslide susceptibility (LS). The performance of the models was then evaluated using both the highly accurate deformation signals produced by using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technique and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results show more deformation points in areas with high and very high LS levels, and also more stable points in areas with low and very low LS levels for the SVM model. In addition, the SVM has larger area under the ROC curve. It indicates that the SVM has better prediction accuracy and classified ability. For the interpretability, the WoE derives the class of factors that most contributed to landsliding in the study area, and the LR reveals that factors including elevation, settlement density and distance from fault played major roles in landslide occurrence and distribution, whereas the SVM cannot provide relative weights for the variables. The outperformed SVM could be employed to determine potential landslide zones in the study area. Outcome of this research would provide preliminary basis for general land planning such as choosing new urban areas and infrastructure construction in the future, as well as for landslide hazard mitigation in Bailong River Basin.     

基于规则的地理国情普查质量检查系统的设计与实现

针对全国第一次地理国情普查及四川省地理省情普查,笔者结合生产实际,研究和探讨了地理国情普查成果数据质量检查的内容、技术方法及精度指标,设计了内容完整、检查科学的质量检查模型,研发了自动化程度高、拓展性强、运行稳定、检查效率高的地理国情普查质量检查软件,介绍了软件的功能、特点及应用情况。     

注册测绘师注册管理系统的设计与实现

建设部、财政部早在2005年、2008年就实现了相关注册师的管理信息化,而我国注册测绘师队伍信息化管理方面还比较落后,尤其随着注册测绘师制度实施的逐步落地,迫切需要利用信息化的管理手段,满足对日益壮大注册测绘师队伍的管理需求,促进注册测绘师制度规范化推行。本文围绕注册测绘师注册管理业务,详细分析了注册管理工作流程和主要业务功能,设计了注册管理系统的总体框架、数据库结构,研究了系统实现的关键技术;并基于Java平台,采用B/S架构建设完成了注册管理系统,并成功上线试运行,为全国注册测绘师、测绘资质单位、各级测绘地理信息行政管理部门提供了有效注册管理工具。     

北京密云水库表层沉积物磁性矿物的鉴别

本文对密云水库表层沉积物中的磁性矿物进行了岩石磁学和透射电子显微学的综合研究.本实验建立的磁选方法实现将70%~85%左右的磁性矿物从沉积物中分离出来.岩石磁学研究表明,密云水库沉积物中的磁性矿物以多畴和单畴磁铁矿为主,还含有少量高矫顽力弱磁性载磁矿物(可能为赤铁矿).对磁选矿物的透射电镜观测表明,样品中部分单畴磁铁矿具有纳米尺寸和化学纯度高等特点,为拉长的立方-八面体磁铁矿,是趋磁细菌产生的化石磁小体;多畴磁铁矿多数具有微米尺寸,形状不规则,为碎屑成因;超顺磁磁铁矿粒径约为5~20nm,且含硅、铝等元素,可能为自生成因.研究结果表明,岩石磁学和透射电子显微学的综合应用可以更全面、准确地分析沉积物中磁性矿物的成分、含量、粒径和化学成分等信息,为环境磁学、生物地磁学和古地磁学研究提供依据.     

Shifting Correlation Between Earthquakes and Electromagnetic Signals: A Case Study of the 2013 Minxian–Zhangxian ML 6.5 (MW 6.1) Earthquake in Gansu,China

The shifting correlation method (SCM) is proposed for statistical analysis of the correlation between earthquake sequences and electromagnetic signal sequences. In this method, the two different sequences were treated in units of 1 day. With the earthquake sequences fixed, the electromagnetic sequences were continuously shifted on the time axis, and the linear correlation coefficients between the two were calculated. In this way, the frequency and temporal distribution characteristics of potential seismic electromagnetic signals in the pre, co, and post-seismic stages were analyzed. In the work discussed in this paper, we first verified the effectiveness of the SCM and found it could accurately identify indistinct related signals by use of sufficient samples of synthetic data. Then, as a case study, the method was used for analysis of electromagnetic monitoring data from the Minxian–Zhangxian M_L 6.5 (M_W 6.1) earthquake. The results showed: (1) there seems to be a strong correlation between earthquakes and electromagnetic signals at different frequency in the pre, co, and post-seismic stages, with correlation coefficients in the range 0.4–0.7. The correlation was positive and negative before and after the earthquakes, respectively. (2) The electromagnetic signals related to the earthquakes might appear 23 days before and last for 10 days after the shocks. (3) To some extent, the occurrence time and frequency band of seismic electromagnetic signals are different at different stations. We inferred that the differences were related to resistivity, active tectonics, and seismogenic structure.     

2℃温升目标下中国排放配额分析

本文以国际社会当前所有主要分配方案为基础,研究了2℃温升目标下中国2011-2050年间排放配额,通过控制变量进一步分析了配额分配对于主要参数设置的敏感性。研究结果表明,在与2℃目标相兼容的RCP2.6路径下,到2050年中国CO₂累计排放配额范围为150～440 Gt CO₂,基于等人均排放的分配方式已经变得最不利于中国。为维护合理的排放权益,在气候谈判中中国必须坚持对历史排放的完整追溯。全球排放路径的设定对中国配额也有着非常显著的影响,当2050年全球配额比2010年排放减少40%～50%时,中国在2℃目标下CO₂累计配额范围为151～474 Gt CO₂,当减少50%～60%时为138～478 Gt CO₂,构成中国配额公平范围下限的方案受排放路径的影响更大。     

北京城区二氧化碳浓度和通量的梯度变化特征——I浓度与虚温

根据北京塔7层涡动系统2012年5月至2013年12月的湍流观测数据,分析了北京城区二氧化碳浓度在不同高度层次的日变化和月变化特征,并初步给出不同季节和日变化时间段内二氧化碳的浓度垂直廓线.结果表明:二氧化碳浓度整体随高度而下降;各观测层均有浓度的明显日变化,夏季最为明显,冬季相对平缓;近地层浓度直接受城市供暖、地表植被、交通运输等碳源影响,更高观测层浓度则受对流输送和天气过程影响较大;垂直方向上,冬季浓度变化范围最大,夏季层间浓度变化最明显;在一天中的任何时刻,近地面层二氧化碳浓度的日变化最低值一般出现在夏季,50m以上则出现在春季,浓度最高值总是出现在冬季;根据对二氧化碳浓度四季垂直廓线变化的分析可以看出,边界层二氧化碳浓度强烈受到碳源、下垫面植被、大气稳定度、环境温度和天气过程等因素的影响.     

西北太平洋热带气旋生成数在1990年代中期发生突变的气候环境特征分析

利用CMA热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析1949—2013年西北太平洋(包括南海)TC生成数的变化特征,发现在1995年前后发生由偏多到偏少的显著突变。对影响TC生成的主要气候环境要素场进行对比分析表明,在1995年之后,虽然赤道西太平洋海表温度偏高,热带太平洋为类La Ni?a的异常海温型,但垂直上升运动减弱、对流层纬向风垂直切变幅度增大、海平面气压升高,均不利于TC的生成,其综合影响导致TC数目显著减少。对1995年前后两个时期TC生成多、少典型年份海洋大气环境场的对比分析表明,1995年以前热带海洋表面温度对TC生成有相对重要的影响,而1995年以后风场环境对TC生成的影响作用更重要。      

L1范数约束被动源数据稀疏反演一次波估计

对于被动源地震数据,运用常规的互相关算法得到的虚拟炮记录中,不仅含有一次波反射信息,还包括了表面相关多次波.然而,通过传统的被动源数据稀疏反演一次波估计(EPSI)方法,可以求得只含有一次波,不含表面相关多次波的虚拟炮记录.本文改进了传统的被动源数据稀疏反演一次波估计问题的求解方法,将被动源稀疏反演一次波估计求解问题转化为双凸L1范数约束的最优化求解问题,避免了在传统的稀疏反演一次波估计过程中用时窗防止反演陷入局部最优化的情况.在L1范数约束最优化的求解过程中,又结合了2DCurvelet变换和小波变换,在2DCurvelet-wavelet域中,数据变得更加稀疏,从而使求得的结果更加准确,成像质量得到了改善.通过简单模型和复杂模型,验证了本文提出方法的有效性.     

Retrieval of super‐virtual refraction by cross‐correlation

Topography and severe variations of near‐surface layers lead to travel‐time perturbations for the events in seismic exploration. Usually, these perturbations could be estimated and eliminated by refraction technology. The virtual refraction method is a relatively new technique for retrieval of refraction information from seismic records contaminated by noise. Based on the virtual refraction, this paper proposes super‐virtual refraction interferometry by cross‐correlation to retrieve refraction wavefields by summing the cross‐correlation of raw refraction wavefields and virtual refraction wavefields over all receivers located outside the retrieved source and receiver pair. This method can enhance refraction signal gradually as the source–receiver offset decreases. For further enhancement of refracted waves, a scheme of hybrid virtual refraction wavefields is applied by stacking of correlation‐type and convolution‐type super‐virtual refractions. Our new method does not need any information about the near‐surface velocity model, which can solve the problem of directly unmeasured virtual refraction energy from the virtual source at the surface, and extend the acquisition aperture to its maximum extent in raw seismic records. It can also reduce random noise influence in raw seismic records effectively and improve refracted waves’ signal‐to‐noise ratio by a factor proportional to the square root of the number of receivers positioned at stationary‐phase points, based on the improvement of virtual refraction's signal‐to‐noise ratio. Using results from synthetic and field data, we show that our new method is effective to retrieve refraction information from raw seismic records and improve the accuracy of first‐arrival picks.