Forbush Decrease: A New Perspective with Classification

Sudden short-duration decreases in cosmic ray flux, known as Forbush decreases (FDs), are mainly caused by interplanetary disturbances. A generally accepted view is that the first step of an FD is caused by a shock sheath and the second step is due to the magnetic cloud (MC) of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). This simplistic picture does not consider several physical aspects, such as whether the complete shock sheath or MC (or only part of these) contributes to the decrease or the effect of internal structure within the shock-sheath region or MC. We present an analysis of 16 large (\({\geq}\,8 \%\)) FD events and the associated ICMEs, a majority of which show multiple steps in the FD profile. We propose a reclassification of FD events according to the number of steps observed in their respective profiles and according to the physical origin of these steps. This study determines that 13 out of 16 major events (\({\sim}\,81\%\)) can be explained completely or partially on the basis of the classic FD model. However, it cannot explain all the steps observed in these events. Our analysis clearly indicates that not only broad regions (shock sheath and MC), but also localized structures within the shock sheath and MC have a significant role in influencing the FD profile. The detailed analysis in the present work is expected to contribute toward a better understanding of the relationship between FD and ICME parameters.     

Nonequilibrium Processes in the Solar Corona,Transition Region,Flares, and Solar Wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Invited Review)</Emphasis>

We review the presence and signatures of the non-equilibrium processes, both non-Maxwellian distributions and non-equilibrium ionization, in the solar transition region, corona, solar wind, and flares. Basic properties of the non-Maxwellian distributions are described together with their influence on the heat flux as well as on the rates of individual collisional processes and the resulting optically thin synthetic spectra. Constraints on the presence of high-energy electrons from observations are reviewed, including positive detection of non-Maxwellian distributions in the solar corona, transition region, flares, and wind. Occurrence of non-equilibrium ionization is reviewed as well, especially in connection to hydrodynamic and generalized collisional-radiative modeling. Predicted spectroscopic signatures of non-equilibrium ionization depending on the assumed plasma conditions are summarized. Finally, we discuss the future remote-sensing instrumentation that can be used for the detection of these non-equilibrium phenomena in various spectral ranges.     

On the Collision Nature of Two Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review

Observational and numerical studies have shown that the kinematic characteristics of two or more coronal mass ejections (CMEs) may change significantly after a CME collision. The collision of CMEs can have a different nature, i.e. inelastic, elastic, and superelastic processes, depending on their initial kinematic characteristics. In this article, we first review the existing definitions of collision types including Newton’s classical definition, the energy definition, Poisson’s definition, and Stronge’s definition, of which the first two were used in the studies of CME–CME collisions. Then, we review the recent research progresses on the nature of CME–CME collisions with the focus on which CME kinematic properties affect the collision nature. It is shown that observational analysis and numerical simulations can both yield an inelastic, perfectly inelastic, merging-like collision, or a high possibility of a superelastic collision. Meanwhile, previous studies based on a 3D collision picture suggested that a low approaching speed of two CMEs is favorable for a superelastic nature. Since CMEs are an expanding magnetized plasma structure, the CME collision process is quite complex, and we discuss this complexity. Moreover, the models used in both observational and numerical studies contain many limitations. All of the previous studies on collisions have not shown the separation of two colliding CMEs after a collision. Therefore the collision between CMEs cannot be considered as an ideal process in the context of a classical Newtonian definition. In addition, many factors are not considered in either observational analysis or numerical studies, e.g. CME-driven shocks and magnetic reconnections. Owing to the complexity of the CME collision process, a more detailed and in-depth observational analysis and simulation work are needed to fully understand the CME collision process.     

CME Velocity and Acceleration Error Estimates Using the Bootstrap Method

The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.     

Origin of Radio Enhancements in Type II Bursts in the Outer Corona

We study interplanetary (IP) solar radio type II bursts from 2011?–?2014 in order to determine the cause of the intense enhancements in their radio emission. Type II bursts are known to be due to propagating shocks that are often associated with fast halo-type coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We analysed the radio spectral data and the white-light coronagraph data from 16 selected events to obtain directions and heights for the propagating CMEs and the type II bursts. CMEs preceding the selected events were included in the analysis to verify whether CME interaction was possible. As a result, we were able to classify the events into five different groups. 1) Events where the heights of the CMEs and type II bursts are consistent, indicating that the shock is located at the leading front of the CME. The radio enhancements are superposed on the type II lanes, and they are probably formed when the shock meets remnant material from earlier CMEs, but the shock continues to propagate at the same speed. 2) Events where the type II heights agree with the CME leading front and an earlier CME is located at a height that suggests interaction. The radio enhancements and frequency jumps could be due to the merging process of the CMEs. 3) Events where the type II heights are significantly lower than the CME heights almost from the start. Interaction with close-by streamers is probably the cause for the enhanced radio emission, which is located at the CME flank region. 4) Events where the radio enhancements are located within wide-band type II bursts and the causes for the radio enhancements are not clear. 5) Events where the radio enhancements are associated with later-accelerated particles (electron beams, observed as type III bursts) that stop at the type II burst emission lane, and no other obvious reason for the enhancement can be identified.Most of the events (38%) were due to shock–streamer interaction, while one quarter of the events was due to possible CME–CME interaction. The drift rates, bandwidth characteristics, or cross-correlations of various characteristics did not reveal any clear association with particular category types. The chosen atmospheric density model causes the largest uncertainties in the derived radio heights, although in some cases, the emission bandwidths also lead to relatively large error margins.Our conclusion is that the enhanced radio emission associated with CMEs and propagating shocks can have different origins, depending on their overall configuration and the associated processes.     

Geomagnetic Effects of Corotating Interaction Regions

We present an analysis of the geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions (CIRs), employing the data recorded from 25 January to 5 May 2005 and throughout 2008. These two intervals in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23 are characterised by a particularly low number of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study in detail how four geomagnetic-activity parameters (the Dst, Ap, and AE indices, as well as the Dst time derivative, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\)) are related to three CIR-related solar wind parameters (flow speed, \(V\), magnetic field, \(B\), and the convective electric field based on the southward Geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) magnetic field component, \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\)) on a three-hour time resolution. In addition, we quantify statistical relationships between the mentioned geomagnetic indices. It is found that Dst is correlated best to \(V\), with a correlation coefficient of \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\), whereas there is no correlation between \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) and \(V\). The Ap and AE indices attain peaks about half a day before the maximum of \(V\), with correlation coefficients ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\) to \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.7\), depending on the sample used. The best correlations of Ap and AE are found with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\) with a delay of 3 h, being characterised by \(\mathrm{cc}\gtrsim 0.6\). The Dst derivative \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) is also correlated with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\), but the correlation is significantly weaker \(\mathrm{cc}\approx 0.4\)?–?0.5, with a delay of 0?–?3 h, depending on the employed sample. Such low values of correlation coefficients indicate that there are other significant effects that influence the relationship between the considered parameters. The correlation of all studied geomagnetic parameters with \(B\) are characterised by considerably lower correlation coefficients, ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}=0.3\) in the case of \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) up to \(\mathrm{cc}=0.56\) in the case of Ap. It is also shown that peak values of geomagnetic indices depend on the duration of the CIR-related structures. The Dst is closely correlated with Ap and AE (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.7\)), Dst being delayed for about 3 h. On the other hand, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) peaks simultaneously with Ap and AE, with correlation coefficients of 0.48 and 0.56, respectively. The highest correlation (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.81\)) is found for the relationship between Ap and AE.     

Optimal Energy Growth in Current Sheets

In this article, we investigate the possibility of transient growth in the linear perturbation of current sheets. The resistive magnetohydrodynamics operator for a background field consisting of a current sheet is non-normal, meaning that associated eigenvalues and eigenmodes can be very sensitive to perturbation. In a linear stability analysis of a tearing current sheet, we show that modes that are damped as \(t\rightarrow \infty \) can produce transient energy growth, contributing faster growth rates and higher energy attainment (within a fixed finite time) than the unstable tearing mode found from normal-mode analysis. We determine the transient growth for tearing-stable and tearing-unstable regimes and discuss the consequences of our results for processes in the solar atmosphere, such as flares and coronal heating. Our results have significant potential impact on how fast current sheets can be disrupted. In particular, transient energy growth due to (asymptotically) damped modes may lead to accelerated current sheet thinning and, hence, a faster onset of the plasmoid instability, compared to the rate determined by the tearing mode alone.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to ?0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.     

Fisher Matrix-based Predictions for Measuring the <Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis> = 3.35 Binned 21-cm Power Spectrum using the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA)

We use the Fisher matrix formalism to predict the prospects of measuring the redshifted 21-cm power spectrum in different k-bins using observations with the upcoming Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA) which will operate at 326.5 MHz. This corresponds to neutral hydrogen (HI) at z = 3.35, and a measurement of the 21-cm power spectrum provides a unique method to probe the large-scale structures at this redshift. Our analysis indicates that a 5σ detection of the binned power spectrum is possible in the k range 0.05 ≤ k ≤ 0.3 Mpc^?1 with 1000 hours of observation. We find that the signal- to-noise ratio (SNR) peaks in the k range 0.1?0.2 Mpc^?1 where a 10σ detection is possible with 2000 hours of observations. Our analysis also indicates that it is not very advantageous to observe beyond 1000 h in a single field-of-view as the SNR increases rather slowly beyond this in many of the small k-bins. The entire analysis reported here assumes that the foregrounds have been completely removed.