Wavelet regression model as an alternative to neural networks for monthly streamflow forecasting

The accuracy of the wavelet regression (WR) model in monthly streamflow forecasting is investigated in the study. The WR model is improved combining the two methods—the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) model and the linear regression (LR) model—for 1‐month‐ahead streamflow forecasting. In the first part of the study, the results of the WR model are compared with those of the single LR model. Monthly flow data from two stations, Gerdelli Station on Canakdere River and Isakoy Station on Goksudere River, in Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey are used in the study. The comparison results reveal that the WR model could increase the forecast accuracy of the LR model. In the second part of the study, the accuracy of the WR model is compared with those of the artificial neural networks (ANN) and auto‐regressive (AR) models. On the basis of the results, the WR is found to be better than the ANN and AR models in monthly streamflow forecasting. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater potential mapping by combining fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process and GIS in Beyşehir Lake Basin,Turkey

Delineation of the groundwater potential zones is one of the most essential process for the sustainable management of the groundwater sources. However, groundwater studies are quite hard and complex for many regions besides consuming time and cost. This study focused on the groundwater potential mapping in Bey?ehir Lake Basin. Mainly, fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy-AHP) integrated with GIS was used to determine potential zones for groundwater. Seven parameters, namely lithology, lineament, drainage density, land use, slope, soil type, and rainfall were evaluated and Groundwater Potential Index (GWPI) was calculated using weight and rating coefficients of each parameter. According to obtained results, GWPI varies from 0.07665 to 0.28243 in the basin. The low, moderate, and high groundwater potential classes were determined with quantile classification method. The groundwater potential map demonstrates that the high groundwater potential area is located around the lake shore, in the alluvium and limestone fields because high permeability rates depend on soil type, low slope, karstic structure, and agricultural activities in these regions. In addition, the distribution of the springs confirms with groundwater potential area determined with this study.     

From Tethys to Eastern Paratethys: Oligocene depositional environments, paleoecology and paleobiogeography of the Thrace Basin (NW Turkey)

The Oligocene depositional history of the Thrace Basin documents a unique paleogeographic position at a junction between the Western Tethys and the Eastern Paratethys. As part of the Tethys, shallow marine carbonate platforms prevailed during the Eocene. Subsequently, a three-staged process of isolation started with the Oligocene. During the Early Rupelian, the Thrace Basin was still part of the Western Tethys, indicated by typical Western Tethyan marine assemblages. The isolation from the Tethys during the Early Oligocene is reflected by oolite formation and endemic Eastern Paratethyan faunas of the Solenovian stage. The third phase reflects an increasing continentalisation of the Thrace Basin with widespread coastal swamps during the Late Solenovian. The mollusc assemblages are predominated by mangrove dwelling taxa and the mangrove plant Avicennia is recorded in the pollen spectra. The final continentalisation is indicated by the replacement of the coastal swamps by pure freshwater swamps and fluvial plains during the Late Oligocene (mammal zone MP 26). This paleogeographic affiliation of the Thrace Basin with the Eastern Paratethys after ~32 Ma contrasts all currently used reconstructions which treat the basin as embayment of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.     

Fluid inclusion and sulfur isotope thermometry of the Inkaya (Simav-Kütahya) Cu-Pb-Zn-(Ag) mineralization, NW TURKEY

The Inkaya Cu-Pb-Zn-(Ag) mineralization, located about 20 km west of the Simav (Kütahya-Turkey), is situated in the northern part of the Menderes Massif Metamorphics. The mineralization is located along an E-W trending fault in the Cambrian Simav metamorphics consisting of quartz-muscovite schist, quartz-biotite schist, muscovite schist, biotite schist and the Ar?kayas? formation composed of marbles. Mineralized veins are 30–35 cm in width. The primary mineralization is represented by abundant galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, pyrite, fahlore and minor amounts of cerussite, anglesite, digenite, enargite, chalcocite, covellite, bornite, limonite, hematite and goethite with gangue quartz. Fluid inclusion studies on the quartz samples collected from the mineralized veins indicate that the temperature range of the fluids is 235°C to 340°C and the salinities are 0.7 to 4.49 wt. % NaCl equivalent. The wide range of homogenization temperatures indicates that two different fluid generations were trapped in quartz. Sulfur isotope studies of the sulfide minerals showed that all of the δ ³⁴S values are between ?2.1 and 2.6 per mil. These values are a typical range for hydrothermal sulfide minerals that have sulfur derived from a magmatic source. Pyrite-galena and pyrite-chalcopyrite sulfur isotope fractionation is consistent with an approach to isotopic equilibrium, and calculated temperatures are 254.6 and 277.4°C for pyrite-galena and 274.7°C for pyrite-chalcopyrite. The microthermometric data and sulfur isotope thermometry indicate the existence of a hydrothermal fluid that circulated along the fault crossing the Simav metamorphics and Ar?kayas? formation. Fluid inclusion and sulfur isotope thermometry can be used in combination with ore petrographical and geological information to provide site-specific targets for meso-hypothermal metal concentrations.     

On the geomagnetic lunar variation at Istanbul

Summary The article describes lunar daily magnetic variation inH, D andZ components of the earth's magnetic field at Istanbul. Maximum occurs at 10.03 l.hr. (lunar hour) in theH component, 3.38 l.hr. in theD and 2.15 l.hr. in theZ component, during the period 1949 to 1968. Also, the seasonal variation of the lunar magnetic variation has been determined and it is seen that the variation of the phase inD andZ are opposite from the phase of the lunar variation inH, and the amplitudes of the lunar variation inH, D andZ are greatest during the northern solstice.     

Interpretation of Magnetic Anomalies and Estimation of Depth of Magnetic Crust in Slovakia

The magnetic map of Slovakia used in the paper was compiled as part of a project titled Atlas of Geophysical maps and profiles in 2001. The residual magnetic data were analyzed to produce Curie point estimates. To remove distortion of magnetic anomalies caused by the Earth’s magnetic field, reduction to pole transformation was applied to the magnetic anomalies using the magnetization angle of the induced magnetization. Anomalies reduced to the pole tend to be better correlated with tectonic structures. We applied a 3-km upward continuation to the residually compiled magnetic anomalies in order to remove effects of topography. The depth of magnetic dipoles was calculated by an azimuthally averaged power spectrum method for the entire area. Such estimates can be indicative of temperatures in the crust, since magnetic minerals lose their spontaneous magnetization according to Curie temperature of the dominant magnetic minerals in the rocks. The computed Curie point depths in the Slovakia region vary between 15.2 km and 20.9 km. Heat flow higher than 100 mWm⁻² occurs at the central volcanics and eastern part of Slovakia, where the Curie point depths values are shallow. The correlation between Curie point depths, heat flow and crust depth was investigated for two E-W cross sections. Heat flow and Curie point depth values are correlated with each other however, these values could not be correlated with crust depth. The Curie point isotherm, which separates magnetic and non-magnetic parts of the crust, is represented in two cross sections.     

A New Natural Secondary Reference Material for Garnet U-Pb Dating by TIMS and LA-ICP-MS

Gem quality andradite-rich garnet (IUC-1), obtained from the Miocene trachyte dome near Ankara city (Turkey), has been identified as a potential natural secondary reference material for U-Pb dating. In this study, U-Pb dating was performed in five different laboratories using isotope dilution TIMS and laser ablation ICP-MS to determine the homogeneity of euhedral garnet crystals. The U-Pb ID-TIMS data for IUC-1 yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.9 ± 0.4 and 20.6 ± 0.8 Ma respectively, and these values are consistent with U-Pb LA-ICP-MS analyses, in which different garnet crystals yielded ages of 20.8 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 0.2 and 20.2 ± 0.1 Ma. An andradite (IUC-2) from the Serçeören wollastonite skarn (Turkey) can be used as a secondary reference material provided detailed imaging of the crystals is undertaken. ID-TIMS data yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.4 ± 0.4 and 20.9 ± 1.0 Ma respectively, and yielded U-Pb ages on different grains of 20.5 ± 0.1, 20.7 ± 1.0, 20.8 ± 1.7 and 20.9 ± 1.6 Ma. The assigned weighted mean age of IUC-1 (20.4 ± 0.5 Ma, 2s) is proposed as a 2023 reference value. IUC-1 garnet is expected to contribute significantly to rapidly developing garnet geochronology in the near future.     

Seismological and engineering characteristics of strong motion data from 24 and 26 September 2019 Marmara Sea earthquakes

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - An MW 4.5 earthquake took place on September 24, 2019 in the Marmara Sea. Two days after, on September 26, 2019, Marmara region was rattled by an MW5.7...