A decision support system for post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to aftershocks: an application to L��Aquila earthquake, 2009

The post-earthquake assessment of existing structures can be further complicated by the progressive damage induced by the occurrence of a sequence of aftershocks. This work presents a simple methodology for the calculation of the probability of exceeding a certain limit state in a given interval of time. The time-decaying mean daily rate of occurrence of significant aftershock events is modeled by employing a site-specific aftershock model for the L??Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). The number of aftershock events occurring in a given interval of time elapsed after the main event is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson model. An equivalent single-degree of freedom structure with cyclic stiffness degradation is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage caused by a sequence of aftershock events. Given the time history of the main-shock and the residual damage caused by it, the probability of exceeding a set of discrete limit states in a given interval of time is calculated. Of particular importance is the time-variant probability of exceeding the limit state in a 24-h (a day) interval of time which can be used as a proxy for the life-safety considerations regarding the re-occupancy of the structure and to complement the results of visual inspections for prioritizing the emergency operations. The method presented herein can also be used in an adaptive manner, progressively conditioned on the time-histories of aftershock events following the main-shock and on the corresponding residual damage caused by them.     

Etiology of Salinity and Water Origin,the Main Dilemma of Badab Sourt,a Unique Travertine Spring

Badab Sourt travertine‐depositing springs in the north of Iran, naturally create a unique surreal landscape containing a range of stepped travertine terraces, similarly found only in a few other places on earth. This site comprises of three travertine saline springs with different values of salinity and discharge (SP₁, SP₂, and SP₃) and one non‐travertine fresh karstic spring (SP₄) within a distance of about 300 m. The etiology behind this salinity and the water origin are the main research's dilemma that were investigated using geological, hydrochemical, and stable isotopic techniques. Based on the topography and isotopic results, the carbonate formations in northern (Khoshyeilagh and Mobarak) and southern (Cretaceous limestone) parts of the springs potentially provide the initial hydraulic gradient for deep circulation of the water and CO₂. However, geological studies indicate that the hydraulic connectivity of the Cretaceous formation to the travertine springs is interrupted by impermeable geological formations. Based on the proposed conceptual hydrogeological model and mass balance calculations, the SP₄ spring is locally recharged from the nearby karstic area of Khoshyeilagh formation through shallow, short and steep groundwater flow circulation that is completely different from the travertine springs. The travertine spring (SP₁) is recharged from more distant areas having higher altitudes on Mobarak and Khoshyeilagh limestone and circulate more deeply before emerging on the surface. The SP₂ and SP₃ springs can derive from the mixing of the saline water (SP₁) and fresh water (SP₄). The dissolution of interlayers of halite in Shemshak formation is concluded as the main source of salinity. This is the first research article in detail to survey hydrogeology of the travertine springs in Iran.     

Climate change impact on precipitation and cardinal temperatures in different climatic zones in Iran: analyzing the probable effects on cereal water-use efficiency

Global greenhouse gases increase could be a threat to sustainable agriculture since it might affect both green water and air temperature. Using the outputs of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the projected annual and seasonal precipitation (P) and cardinal temperatures (T) were analyzed for five climatic zones in Iran. In addition, the probable effects of climate change on cereal production were studied using AquaCrop model. Data obtained from the GCMs were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. An uncertainty analysis was done for the projected P and T associated to GCMs and SRES scenarios. Based on station observations, LARS-WG was capable enough for simulating both P and T for all the climatic zones. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project positive P and T changes. In all the climatic zones, wet seasons have a higher P increase than dry seasons, with the highest increase (27.9–83.3%) corresponding to hyper-arid and arid regions. A few GCMs project a P reduction mainly in Mediterranean and hyper-humid climatic regions. The highest increase (11.2–44.5%) in minimum T occurred in Mediterranean climatic regions followed by semi-arid regions in which a concurrent increase in maximum T (2.9–14.6%) occurred. The largest uncertainty in P and cardinal T projection occurred in rainy seasons as well as in hyper-humid regions. The AquaCrop simulation results revealed that the increased cardinal T under global warming will cause 0–28.5% increase in cereal water requirement as well as 0–15% reduction in crop yield leading to 0–30% reduction in water use efficiency in 95% of the country.     

Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa

Natural Hazards - Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic...     

Zircon U–Pb geochronology,major-trace elements and Sr–Nd isotope geochemistry of Mashhad granodiorites (NE Iran) and their mafic microgranular enclaves: evidence for magma mixing and mingling

ABSTRACT

Mashhad granitoids and associated mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs), in NE Iran record late early Mesozoic magmatism, was related to the Palaeo-Tethys closure and Iran-Eurasia collision. These represent ideal rocks to explore magmatic processes associated with Late Triassic closure of the Palaeo-Tethyan ocean and post-collisional magmatism. In this study, new geochronological data, whole-rock geochemistry, and Sr–Nd isotope data are presented for Mashhad granitoids and MMEs. LA–ICP–MS U–Pb dating of zircon yields crystallization ages of 205.0 ± 1.3 Ma for the MMEs, indicating their formation during the Late Triassic. This age is similar to the host granitoids. Our results including the major and trace elements discrimination diagrams, in combination with field and petrographic observations (such as ellipsoidal MMEs with feldspar megacrysts, disequilibrium textures of plagioclase), as well as mineral chemistry, suggest that MMEs formed by mixing of mafic and felsic magmas. The host granodiorite is a felsic, high K calc-alkaline I-type granitoid, with SiO₂ = 67.5–69.4 wt%, high K₂O (2.4–4.2 wt%), and low Mg# (42.5–50.5). Normalized abundances of LREEs and LILEs are enriched relative to HREEs and HFSEs (e.g. Nb, Ti). Negative values of whole-rock εNd_(t) (?3 to ?2.3) from granitoids indicate that the precursor magma was generated by partial melting of enriched lithospheric mantle with some contributions from old lower continental crust. In the MMEs, SiO₂ (53.4–58.2 wt%) is lower and Ni (3.9–49.7 ppm), Cr (0.8–93.9 ppm), Mg# (42.81–62.84), and εNd_(t) (?2.3 to +1.4) are higher than those in the host granodiorite, suggesting a greater contribution of mantle-derived mafic melts in the genesis of MMEs.     

Characterizing Water Flow in Vegetated Lysimeters with Stable Water Isotopes and Modeling

We have used stable water isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) in combination with lumped-parameter modeling for characterizing unsaturated flow in two lysimeters vegetated with maize. The lysimeters contained undisturbed soil cores dominated by sandy gravel (Ly1) and clayey sandy silt (Ly2). Stable water isotopes were analyzed in precipitation and lysimeter outflow water over about 3 years. The mean transit time of water T and dispersion parameter P_D, obtained from modeling, were higher for the silt soil in Ly2 than for the gravel soil in Ly1 (T of 362 vs. 129 d, P_D of 0.7 vs. 0.12). The consideration of preferential flow (PF) paths could substantially improve the model curve fits, with 13 and 11% contribution of PF for Ly1 and Ly2 as best estimates. Different assumptions were compared to estimate the input function, that is, stable water isotope content in the recharging water. Using the isotopic composition of precipitation as input (no modification) resulted in reasonable model estimations. Best model fits for the entire observation were obtained by weighting the recharging isotopes according to average precipitation within periods of 3 and 6 months, in correspondence to changing vegetation phases and seasonal influences. Input functions that consider actual evapotranspiration could significantly improve modeling at some periods, however, this led to deviations between modeled and observed δ¹⁸O at other periods. This may indicate the influence of variable flow, so that dividing the whole observation period into hydraulically characteristic sub-periods for lumped-parameter modeling (which implements steady-state flow) is recommended for possible further improvement.     

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.