Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran

In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.     

Climate-resilient agricultural water management to alleviate negative impacts of global warming in rice production systems

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Improving the economic productivity of limited available freshwater through producing more rice with less water is essential to sustain paddy production...     

Late Santonian–Early Maastrichtian calcareous nannofossils from marly deposits near Kerman (Central Iran)

For the first time, the calcareous nannofossils of marly deposits near Kerman (Bardsir area) have been studied. This study presents the integrated (calcareous nannofossils) biostratigraphy of the Bardsir section in the Kerman basin, Central Iran. In most parts of Central Iran, the Upper Cretaceous sequence is complete and continuous and is divided into two groups: Cenomanian–Touronian flysch and Campanian–Maastrichtian flysch. Flyschs composed of sets of green marl sequences (Coniacian–Santonian) have been separated to reduce the basin depth and refer to the relative calm. Bardsir is located 57.6 km from Kerman (Central Iran). The lithology of this area includes light green marl with layers of calcareous siltstone, limestone, and flysch rocks. In this study, 24 samples were taken and prepared with smear slide. Most species were photographed with a light microscope. As a result of this study, 30 genera and 42 species of nannofossils have been identified. A high-resolution calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic study has been carried out, allowing the division of the studied section into eight biozones of Late Santonian to Early Maastrichtian age (CC17–CC24).     

Fishery-induced Inter-annual Changes in the Mean Trophic Level,the Northern Sea of Oman off the Iranian Coast, 2002–2011

Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future.     

Application of Remotely-Sensed Data to Estimate a Water Budget for Data-Scarce Endorheic Basins: A Case Study of Lake Urmia basin,Iran

Estimating the water budgets of large basins is a challenge because of the lack of data and information. It becomes more complicated in endorheic basins that consist of separate land and water phases. The application of remotely-sensed data is one solution in this regard. The present study addresses this issue and develops a modeling framework to evaluate a water budget based on remotely-sensed data for endorheic basins. To explore the methodology, Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. The lake water level has declined steeply since 1995 and stakeholders have agreed to allocate 3100 MCM of water per year to the lake. This makes it necessary to monitor river inflow into the lake to fulfill the agreement. Gauging stations have been employed around the lake, but they could not account for shortages such as water uptake below the stations. To do this, separate water budgets for the water body and the land were required. More specifically, it was necessary to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ET _a ) from freshwater (E _f ) and saltwater (E _s ) estimated using the SEBAL model. Different methods were applied to estimate soil moisture, groundwater exploitation, and surface-groundwater inflow into the lake. A comparison of the observed and estimated amounts showed good agreement. For instance, the coefficient of determination for the observed/reported and estimated ET _a and E _f were 0.83 and 0.84, respectively. The average annual inflow was estimated to be 2.2 BCM/year for 2002–2008 using the RS model, which is about 84 % of the total inflow from the last recording stations before the lake and shows influence of water exploitation after these stations. Future study should focus on increasing temporal and spatial resolution of the method     

A new generation of Primary Care Service Areas or general practice catchment areas

Primary Care is fundamental to a well‐functioning health system. Various geographical small areas including specialized geographies such as Primary Care Service Areas (PCSAs) are used to measure primary care relevant outcomes and services, or to target interventions. PCSAs are small areas, the majority of patients resident in which obtain their primary care services from within the geography. The extent of this self‐sufficiency of use is measured by the Localization Index (LI). PCSAs have been built in the US, Australia and Switzerland using an allocation algorithm, which, while simple and easy to implement, may require the use of various ad‐hoc parameters. In this article we propose an optimization based approach to creating PCSAs, ‐ an approach which has previously been used to generate labour flow regions in Ireland. The approach is data driven, thus requiring a minimal number of ad‐hoc parameters. We compared the resulting PCSAs (or `rPCSAs') with PCSAs generated using the traditional allocation algorithm. We found that rPCSAs were generally larger, offered greater LIs and reflected patient travel patterns better than traditional PCSAs. Accounting for the larger size of rPCSAs showed that rPCSAs offered better LIs than similar sized traditional PCSAs.     

Prediction of rainfall using artificial neural networks for synoptic station of Mashhad: a case study

In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M₅₃₁ and M₇₄₁, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models.     

Effects of irradiated Ergosan on the growth performance and mucus biological components of rainbow trout <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus mykiss</Emphasis>

Effects of irradiated and non-irradiated Ergosan extract (alginic acid) on rainbow trout growth performance and skin mucosal immunity were compared. Ergosan was irradiated at 30 kGy in a cobalt-60 irradiator. A total of 252 fish (128.03±9.4 g) were randomly divided into four equal groups, given the basal diet either unsupplemented with Ergosan (control group) or supplemented with crude Ergosan (5 g/kg), ethanol-extracted Ergosan (0.33 g/kg) or irradiated Ergosan (0.33 g/kg) according to this protocol: basal diet for 15 days, treatment diet for 15 days, basal diet for 10 days and treatment diet for 15 days. Highest growth performance was observed in fish fed irradiated Ergosan (P <0.05). Dietary administration of different Ergosan types did not cause any changes in mucus protein level, but improved alkaline phosphatase level and hemagglutination titer compared with the control (basal diet without Ergosan) on day 55 of feeding trial (P <0.05). Furthermore, the highest value of lysozyme activity was observed in gamma-irradiated Ergosan on day 55. In conclusion, gamma-irradiated Ergosan at 0.33 g/kg was found to improve growth performance and mucus biological components significantly in comparison with the control group (basal diet without Ergosan).     

Investigation on the Distribution of Gold Across the Ahar Area (NW Iran) Using Stream‐Sediment and BLEG Methods

The Ahar area is located in NW Iran. The main part of the area is covered by Eocene andesitic and andesi‐basaltic rocks within which several granitoid intrusives of Oligocene age are emplaced. This caused vast hydrothermal alterations and Cu and Au mineralization. In this regard, this contribution aims to explore the distribution of gold across the region based on systematic sampling of stream sediments and using the secondary geochemical halos, as well as the bulk leach extractable gold (BLEG) method. Meanwhile, the results obtained from these two methods will be compared in order to find out if the anomalous zones match with each other. For this, 620 stream sediment samples of ?80 mesh grain size and 422 BLEG samples were collected and analyzed by Fire Assay and atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) methods, respectively. For BLEG samples, gold was first dissolved using KCN before being analyzed by the AAS method. Furthermore, 84 rock samples were also collected during the field control surveys and were analyzed by Fire Assay and ICP‐OES methods for gold and other elements, respectively. After determining the distribution characteristics and statistical parameters of gold in each group of samples, anomaly maps of gold for each method were prepared, revealing almost similar anomalous zones across the region. Based on these maps, most of the discovered anomalies correlate well with granitoid intrusives of Oligocene age and the related hydrothermal alterations, which have occurred within the intrusives and the host andesitic‐basaltic rocks of Eocene age, especially at the NE and central parts of the area and east of Ahar. Some silicic veins and veinlets have been observed during field surveys in these parts, within which high concentrations of Au and sometimes Cu are determined. Another anomalous zone is located over the hydrothermal alterations within trachy‐andesitic and andesitic volcanics of Pliocene age at the SE part of the quadrangle, where vast alterations caused by volcanic fumaroles and epithermal mineralization of gold and Pb–Zn is discovered. In this regard, the SE and NE parts of the area and the east Ahar area are proposed, in order of importance, for further detailed investigations.