Mesozoic to Cenozoic tectono‐metamorphic history of the South Pamir–Hindu Kush (Chitral,NW Pakistan): Insights from phase equilibria modelling,and garnet–monazite petrochronology

The Karakoram–Hindu Kush–Pamir and adjacent Tibetan plateau belt comprise a series of Gondwana‐derived crustal fragments that successively accreted to the Eurasian margin in the Mesozoic as the result of the progressive Tethys ocean closure. These domains provide unique insights into the thermal and structural history of the Mesozoic to Cenozoic Eurasian plate margin, which are critical to inform the initial boundary conditions (e.g. crustal thickness, structure and thermo‐mechanical properties) for the subsequent development of the large and hot Tibetan–Himalaya orogen, and the associated crustal deformation processes. Using a combination of microstructural analyses, thermobarometry modelling and U–Th–Pb monazite and Lu–Hf garnet geochronology, the study reappraises the metamorphic history of exposed mid‐crustal metapelites in the Chitral region of the South Pamir–Hindu Kush (NW Pakistan). This study also demonstrates that trace elements in monazite (especially Y and Dy), combined with thermodynamical modelling and Lu–Hf garnet dating, provides a powerful integrated toolbox for constraining long‐lived and polyphased tectono‐metamorphic histories in all their spatial and temporal complexity. Rocks from the Chitral region were progressively deformed and metamorphosed at sub‐ and supra‐solidus conditions through at least four distinct episodes from the Mesozoic to the Cenozoic. Rocks were first metamorphosed at ~400–500°C and ~0.3 GPa in the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic (210–185 Ma), likely in response to the accretion of the Karakoram during the Cimmerian orogeny. Pressure and temperature subsequently increased by ~0.3 GPa and 100°C in the Early‐ to Mid Cretaceous (140–80 Ma), coinciding with the intrusion of calcalkaline granitic plutons across the Karakoram and Pamir regions. This event is interpreted as the record of crustal thickening and the development of a proto‐plateau within the Eurasian margin due to a long‐lived episode of slab flattening in an Andean‐type margin. Peak metamorphism was reached in the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene (40–30 Ma) at conditions of 580–600°C and ~0.6 GPa and 700–750°C and 0.7–0.8 GPa for the investigated staurolite schists and sillimanite migmatites respectively. This crustal heating up to moderate anatexis likely resulted in the underthrusting of the Indian plate after a NeoTethyan slab‐break off or to the Tethyan Himalaya–Lhasa microcontinent collision and subsequent oceanic slab flattening. Near‐isothermal decompression/exhumation followed in the Late Oligocene (28–23 Ma) as marked by a pressure decrease in excess of ~0.1 GPa. This event was coeval with the intrusion of the 24 Ma Garam Chasma leucogranite. This rapid exhumation is interpreted to be related to the reactivation of the South Pamir–Karakoram suture zone during the ongoing collision with India. The findings of this study confirm that significant crustal shortening and thickening of the south Eurasian margin occurred during the Mesozoic in an accretionary‐type tectonic setting through successive episodes of terrane accretions and probably slab flattening, transiently increasing the coupling at the plate interface. Moreover, they indicate that the south Eurasian margin was already hot and thickened prior to Cenozoic collision with India, which has important implications for orogen‐scale strain‐accommodation mechanisms.     

Comparison of ordinary kriging and artificial neural network for spatial mapping of arsenic contamination of groundwater

In this technical note, we investigate the hypothesis that ‘non-linearity matters in the spatial mapping of complex patterns of groundwater arsenic contamination’. The spatial mapping pertained to data-driven techniques of spatial interpolation based on sampling data at finite locations. Using the well known example of extensive groundwater contamination by arsenic in Bangladesh, we find that the use of a highly non-linear pattern learning technique in the form of an artificial neural network (ANN) can yield more accurate results under the same set of constraints when compared to the ordinary kriging method. One ANN and a variogram model were used to represent the spatial structure of arsenic contamination for the whole country. The probability for successful detection of a well as safe or unsafe was found to be atleast 15% larger than that by kriging under the country-wide scenario. The probability of false hopes, which is a serious issue in public health monitoring was found to be significantly lower (by more than 10%) than that by kriging.     

Developing a novel methodology for ecological risk assessment of thiosalts

A new methodology is developed to estimate an aquatic community toxicity threshold concentration based on the limited toxicity data that are available for thiosalts. To analyze the indirect effect of thiosalts on decreasing pH, an exposure model is developed that estimates the residual concentration of thiosalts and pH in the water body. The results from this model are incorporated in thiosalts risk assessment and a case study is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model. In this study, the exposure model predicts that, trithionate and tetrathionate degraded to $ {{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2 - } $ ions, $ {{\text{HSO}}_{3}}^{ - } $ ions, $ {{\text{SO}}_{3}}^{2 - } $ ions and elemental sulfur. The concentration of thiosulfate, trithionate and tetrathionate, initially at 25, 40 and 6 mg/L, respectively are expected to decrease. Over the duration of 77 h, thiosulfate degrades completely, while the estimated residual trithionate and tetrathionate concentrations are 13 and 5.77 mg/L, respectively. pH of the undiluted effluent is estimated to decrease from 9.2 to 5.6 within an hour of the effluent discharge and decreases further to 4 over a period of next 3 days. A framework and methodology developed in this paper can be utilized to estimate the potential direct and indirect risk of thiosalts exposure to ecological entities.     

Comparisons of Snowfall Measurements in Complex Terrain Made During the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver

Solid precipitation (SP) intensity ( $ R_{\text{s}} $ ) using four automatic gauges, Pluvio, PARSIVEL (PArticle, SIze and VELocity), FD12P and POSS, and radar reflectivity factor ( $ Z $ ) using the POSS and PARSIVEL were measured at a naturally sheltered station (VOA) located at high level (1,640 m) on the Whistler Mountain in British Colombia, Canada. The R _s and other standard meteorological parameters were collected from March 2009, and from November 2009, to February 2010. The wind speed (ws) measured during this period ranged from 0 to 4.5 ms^?1, with a mean value of 0.5 ms^?1. The temperature varied from 4 to ?17 °C. The SP amount reported by the PARSIVEL was higher than that reported by the Pluvio by more than a factor of 2, while the FD12P and POSS measured relatively smaller amounts, but much closer to that reported by the Pluvio and manual measurements. The dependence of R _s from the PARSIVEL on wind speed was examined, but no significant dependence was found. The PARSIVEL’s precipitation retrieval algorithm was modified and tested using three different snow density size relationships (ρ _s–D) reported in literature. It was found that after modification of the algorithm, the derived R _s amounts using the raw data agreed reasonably well with the Pluvio. Statistical analysis shows that more than 95 % of $ Z_{{h_{\text{poss}} }} $ data measured by POSS appears to correlates well with the reflectivity factors determined using the three ρ _s–D relationships. The automated Pluvio accumulation and manually determined daily SP amount (SPm) measured during five winter months were compared. The mean ratio (MR) and the mean difference (MD), and the correlation coefficient (r) calculated using the data collected using the two methods, were found to be 0.96, 0.4 and 0.6 respectively, indicating respectable agreement between these two methods, with only the Pluvio underestimating the amount by about 4 %.     

Seismic hazard assessment and rheological implications: a case study selected for cities of Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea

A probabilistic approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 12 strategic cities in Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea. The focal depth variations controlled by rheological characteristics are taken into account for hazard calculations, and its creditability is tested through sensitivity analysis for hazard results. This study presents a neo-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology in which the focal depth distribution of earthquakes within seismogenic layer is divided into three depth slices. These depth slices are based upon rheological characteristic of seismogenic layer. The hazard results are obtained using this depth-slice methodology and conventional approach in which uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer is assumed. The sensitivity analysis culminated in underestimation of hazard values in higher frequencies for uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer. Foregoing the observations recorded above, it can be concluded that the exploitation of depth-slices biased by the rheology to calculate hazard is relatively preferable in the situations demanding safety measures.     

松辽盆地隆起区地壳反射结构与“断开”莫霍界面

在我国松辽盆地内实施了4条近垂直反射地震法地壳精细结构探测, 获得了双程旅行时为15 s的松辽盆地地壳叠后偏移反射剖面. 重点研究松辽盆地东南隆起区与东北隆起区反射结构特征. 发现松辽盆地隆起区内整体上表现出：由西至东沉积层厚度变薄, 由北向南沉积层厚度增厚; 无论是东南隆起区还是东北隆起区, 壳内反射图案在南北向与东西向均变化剧烈; 东北隆起区莫霍界面双程反射旅行时变化范围为9.6~11.0 s, 深度范围为30~34 km, 东南隆起区莫霍界面双程反射旅行时变化范围为9.7~10.4 s, 深度范围为30~32 km. 由叠偏剖面资料分析可见松辽盆地隆起带内莫霍界面反射出现特异的断开特征, 错距达0.1~0.5 s, 约合2 km左右. 断开带附近存在多组剪切断裂并表现出隆起带内断开宽、两隆起带交界部位窄的空间分布规律. 这些反射图像与特异莫霍界面反射被推断为多期次黑龙江微陆块弱碰撞、太平洋板块向西俯冲等动力因素耦合作用的结果.     

Numerical investigation of the impact of uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimation and land surface model parameters on simulation of soil moisture

This study aims at evaluating the uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture (1D, vertical column) from an offline land surface model (LSM) forced by hydro-meteorological and radiation data. We focus on two types of uncertainty: an input error due to satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainty, and, LSM soil-parametric error. The study is facilitated by in situ and remotely sensed data-driven (precipitation, radiation, soil moisture) simulation experiments comprising a LSM and stochastic models for error characterization. The parametric uncertainty is represented by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique, which models the parameter non-uniqueness against direct observations. Half-hourly infra-red (IR) sensor retrievals were used as satellite rainfall estimates. The IR rain retrieval uncertainty is characterized on the basis of a satellite rainfall error model (SREM). The combined uncertainty (i.e., SREM + GLUE) is compared with the partial assessment of uncertainty. It is found that precipitation (IR) error alone may explain moderate to low proportion of the soil moisture simulation uncertainty, depending on the level of model accuracy—50–60% for high model accuracy, and 20–30% for low model accuracy. Comparisons on the basis of two different sites also yielded an increase (50–100%) in soil moisture prediction uncertainty for the more vegetated site. This study exemplified the need for detailed investigations of the rainfall retrieval-modeling parameter error interaction within a comprehensive space-time stochastic framework for achieving optimal integration of satellite rain retrievals in land data assimilation systems.     

Estimation of rock engineering properties using hardness tests

In engineering projects such as tunnels, dams, foundations, and slope stability, the strength and elastic properties of the intact rock affect both the project design and the construction operation. It is sometimes expensive and time consuming to perform direct tests to evaluate the engineering properties (such as strength, modulus of elasticity, and Poisson's ratio) of the intact rock. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relationships between the engineering properties of the intact rock and the different types of hardness (Schmidt, shore scleroscope, abrasion, and total hardness), which are relatively cheap and easy to evaluate. In this study, dolomite, dolomitic limestone, and shale rocks were used. For simplicity, linear statistical analyses were performed. The results show that there are good relationships between the engineering properties of the intact rock and its hardness. Also, the results of this study are compared well with the results obtained by other investigators conducted on different types of rocks.     

The emerging role of satellite rainfall data in improving the hydro-political situation of flood monitoring in the under-developed regions of the world

The systematic decline of in situ networks for hydrologic measurements has been recognized as a crucial limitation to advancing hydrologic monitoring in medium to large basins, especially those that are already sparsely instrumented. As a collective response, sections of the hydrologic community have recently forged partnerships for the development of space-borne missions for cost-effective, yet global, hydrologic measurements by building upon the technological advancements since the last two decades. In this article, we review the state-of-the-art on flood monitoring in medium and large ungauged basins where satellite remote sensing can facilitate development of a cost-effective mechanism. We present our review in the context of the current hydro-political situation of flood monitoring in flood-prone developing nations situated in international river basins (IRBs). Given the large number of such basins and the difficulty in acquisition of multi-faceted geophysical data, we argue that the conventional data-intensive implementation of physically based hydrologic models that are complex and distributed is time-consuming for global assessment of the utility of proposed global satellite hydrologic missions. A more parsimonious approach is justified at the tolerable expense of accuracy before such missions begin operation. Such a parsimonious approach can subsequently motivate the identified international basins to invest greater effort in conventional and detailed hydrologic studies to design a prototype flood forecasting system in an effort to overcome the hydro-political hurdles to flood monitoring. Through a modeling exercise involving an open-book watershed concept, we demonstrate the value of a parsimonious approach in understanding the utility of NASA-derived satellite rainfall products. It is critical now that real-world operational flood forecasting agencies in the under-developed world come forward to collaborate with the research community in order to leverage satellite rainfall data for greater societal benefit for inhabitants in IRBs.