Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS)

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.     

A numerically calibrated reference level (MP28) for the terrestrial mammal-based biozonation of the European Upper Oligocene

The fauna of the Enspel (Westerwald) and the neighbouring Kärlich (Neuwied basin) fossil deposits correspond to the Upper Oligocene Mammal Paleogene (MP) reference level 28 and 28–30, respectively. Basaltic flows and a trachyte tuff terminating and predating the fossil deposit sedimentation allow to numerically calibrate the MP reference levels by radioisotope dating. Laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating on volcanic feldspars yield a time interval of 24.9–24.5 Ma for reference level MP28 at Enspel and a maximum age of 25.5 Ma for the time interval MP28–MP30 at Kärlich. Interpolation between the time intervals determined for the Enspel reference level MP28 and the age of the global Oligocene/Miocene boundary of 24.0 ± 0.1 Ma taken from literature results in time intervals of 24.5–24.2 Ma and 24.2–23.9 Ma for the younger reference levels MP29 and MP30, respectively. These intervals of ≤ 0.4 m.y. for MP reference levels of the latest Oligocene are short relative to older Oligocene MP reference levels 21–27 between 34 and 25 Ma. Since subdivision into MP reference levels essentially is based on assemblages of mammal taxa and on evolutionary changes in tooth morphology of mammals short MP time intervals during the latest Oligocene indicate a rapid evolutionary change relative to the early Oligocene.     

Detrital zircon geochronology of Carboniferous–Cretaceous strata in the Lhasa terrane, Southern Tibet

Sedimentary strata in the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet record a long but poorly constrained history of basin formation and inversion. To investigate these events, we sampled Palaeozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks in the Lhasa terrane for detrital zircon uranium–lead (U–Pb) analysis. The >700 detrital zircon U–Pb ages reported in this paper provide the first significant detrital zircon data set from the Lhasa terrane and shed new light on the tectonic and depositional history of the region. Collectively, the dominant detrital zircon age populations within these rocks are 100–150, 500–600 and 1000–1400 Ma. Sedimentary strata near Nam Co in central Lhasa are mapped as Lower Cretaceous but detrital zircons with ages younger than 400 Ma are conspicuously absent. The detrital zircon age distribution and other sedimentological evidence suggest that these strata are likely Carboniferous in age, which requires the existence of a previously unrecognized fault or unconformity. Lower Jurassic strata exposed within the Bangong suture between the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes contain populations of detrital zircons with ages between 200 and 500 Ma and 1700 and 2000 Ma. These populations differ from the detrital zircon ages of samples collected in the Lhasa terrane and suggest a unique source area. The Upper Cretaceous Takena Formation contains zircon populations with ages between 100 and 160 Ma, 500 and 600 Ma and 1000 and 1400 Ma. Detrital zircon ages from these strata suggest that several distinct fluvial systems occupied the southern portion of the Lhasa terrane during the Late Cretaceous and that deposition in the basin ceased before 70 Ma. Carboniferous strata exposed within the Lhasa terrane likely served as source rocks for sediments deposited during Cretaceous time. Similarities between the lithologies and detrital zircon age‐probability plots of Carboniferous rocks in the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes and Tethyan strata in the Himalaya suggest that these areas were located proximal to one another within Gondwanaland. U–Pb ages of detrital zircons from our samples and differences between the geographic distribution of igneous rocks within the Tibetan plateau suggest that it is possible to discriminate a southern vs. northern provenance signature using detrital zircon age populations.     

Monitoring overburden layer changes and fault movements from time-lapse seismic data on the Valhall Field

A method developed by Røste et al. , which discriminates between layer thickness and velocity changes, is tested on pre-stack time-lapse seismic ocean bottom cable (OBC) data from the Valhall Field. A key parameter in this discrimination process is the dilation factor, α, which is the relative velocity change divided by the relative thickness change within a given layer. The high quality and good repeatability of the OBC data enables us to estimate α with a reasonable accuracy for α-values between 0 and −5. For α-values below −5, complementary information, like for instance geomechanics is required. For the top reservoir horizon we estimate a maximum subsidence of 0.50 m ± 0.29 m and a corresponding velocity decrease for the sequence from the seabed to the top reservoir of 2.0 m s⁻¹± 0.40 m s⁻¹.
Time-lapse distortion patterns with characteristic time-shift versus offset signatures are observed. The positions and vertical extents of the distortion zones are determined from ray path considerations and modelling. The distortion zones correlate with buried faults, indicating that a (time-lapse) distortion zone might be produced by a localized slip in a fault zone. We present an extended method which allows for vertical (in addition to lateral) variations in the relative thickness and velocity changes. This method can be viewed as a simplified version of time-lapse tomography, but involving fewer unknown parameters, giving more stability to the estimated changes in thickness and velocity. Using this technique, we are able to estimate α for positions with localized time-lapse distortions.     

Global telescope networks for astronomy education

Ever wanted to give school students or the public a closer look at the stars, without worrying about the vagaries of the UK weather? Paul Roche and Rachel Dodds from the Faulkes Telescope Project explain how you can do just that – without even leaving the classroom!     

Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.     

Transient deformation following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion at Kīlauea volcano,Hawai’i

On 30 January 1997 an intrusion on Kīlauea volcano opened a new fissure within the East Rift Zone (ERZ) at Nāpau Crater, 3 km uprift from the ongoing eruptions at Pu’u ’Ō’ō. The fissure eruption lasted 22 h and opened a 5.1 km long, nearly vertical dike 1.9 m, extending from the surface to a depth of 2.4 km (Owen et al. 2000b). During the eruption, the lava pond at Pu’u ’Ō’ō drained, and eruptions ceased there. Pu’u ’Ō’ō eventually refilled in late February and eruptions resumed there on 28 March 1997. Continuous GPS data show a large transient following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion. After lengthening 40 cm during the initial eruption, the baseline between two stations spanning the ERZ lengthened an additional 10 cm over the following 6 months. A coastal station KAEP also exhibited transient deformation, as it continued to move southward (5 cm) over the same 6-month period. The baseline between two stations spanning Kīlauea’s summit caldera contracted sharply during the eruption, but gradually recovered to slightly longer than its previous length 2 months after the intrusion. We use the extended network inversion filter (McGuire and Segall 2003) to invert continuous GPS data for volume change of a spherical pressure source under Kīlauea’s summit, opening distribution on a nearly vertical dike in the ERZ and potential slip on a decollement 9 km beneath the south flank. Following the 30 January intrusion, rift extension continued below the initial dike intrusion for the duration of the transient. Decollement slip, regardless of its assumed depth, is not required to fit the data. The modeled transient summit reinflation and rift opening patterns under Nāpau crater coincide with changes in observed behavior of Pu’u ’Ō’ō’s lava pond. Rift opening accelerated while Pu’u ’Ō’ō eruptions paused and began to decelerate after the lava pond reappeared nearly a month after the Nāpau eruption. The transient deformation is interpreted as resulting from shallow accommodation of the new dike volume.     

Scalar advection schemes for ocean modelling on unstructured triangular grids

Several schemes for scalar advection on unstructured triangular grids are assessed for possible use in ocean modelling applications. Finite element, finite volume and finite volume–element approaches are evaluated. A series of tests, including a numerical order of convergence analysis, idealized rotating cone and cylinder experiments, and transport of a tracer through the Stommel Gyre representation of ocean basin-scale circulation, are carried out. Volume element Eulerian–Lagrangian and third-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin schemes are recommended for use in tracer studies. Taylor–Galerkin and second-order Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin are found to be robust and accurate second-order schemes. When positivity is required, a fluctuation redistribution scheme was found to be an easily implemented, accurate, and computationally efficient approach. Responsible editor: Phil Dyke